April 30, 2005
MAY 5TH SOUTHY
JUTE GONE TO MAINE UNTIL THE 9TH OF MAY. JUTECAST WILL RETURN THE 10TH OF MAY. CATCH LOTS OF WAVES!!!
FUN SESSION AT ONE OF MY FAVORITE OUTSIDE WAVES. HH'S ABOUT 5FT ON THE SETS AND PEELING RIGHTS AND LEFTS...A GREAT DEPARTURE GIFT FROM THE WAVES GODS. NOW BACK TO THE HOMELAND OF MAINE AND A JUMP INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SUMMARY...GOOD SURF FOR ALL SHORES FOR MOST OF THE EARLY WEEK. A MODERATE NORTH SWELL FOR MONDAY AND THEN A LARGE SOUTH SWELL WILL POUND SOUTHERN SHORES IN THE DOUBLE OVERHEAD RANGE.
SUNDAY...solid swell will continue for all shores. north shore will see a reinforcement later in the day which will boost waves back to the 5ft catagorey by nightfall. southern shores will stay steady for the day and even increase up a notch as the day goes by. expect southern shores to remain solid for the day and possible foreunners of the next swell episode by dark. winds will remain light once again creating epic conditions for the morning.
judging from swell reports and forecasts and marine charts all i can say is that the first large south swell of the season will arrive on may 4th and peak on the 5th with models predicting waveheights of near 6ft on the sets.
the swell was generated over the last few days from a storm near new zealand that formed just southwest of the south islands. the storm gained strength and produced wind speeds near 50mph over a small fetch, however sustanined winds of around 40mph were maintained over a much broader fetch area that extended nearly 1200mn. this is genrally the key ingrediant for strong south swells. as the fetch grew the system moved north-northeastward in the direction of hawaii over two days. again another key ingrediant for south swells. although the swell heights did not reach the red on the charts, the swell was produced over a three to four day span of time which will insure that the swell will be arounf for at least four days.
by the afternoon of the 4th forerunners of this swell episode will have arrived and waves will increase rapidly (for south shore standards)that afternoon and into the night. waves will arrive out of 190-200deg with initial wave periods in the 17-20sec energy band. as the shorter period waves arrive consistency will increase and waves should stay in the 4-5ft range with possible 6ft+ sets at places that refract long period swells. i wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of 8ft sets at places like brown's.
Posted by megaprober at 08:21 PM | Comments (0)
April 28, 2005
4/29
FRIDAY...strong evidence for a northwest swell tomorrow registering on buoy 1. energy has increased 8X over the the last 24hrs which indicated that a fairly powerful northwest swell will increase overnight and into tomorrow. waveheights are also on the rise as this is generally the pattern for good groundswells. the forecast is for 4-6ft surf at the standout reefs and 3-5ft elsewhere on the north shore. conditions should be favorable as winds will be light or non-existant. southern buoys are also showing some increases in energy so we can expect waves to start to increase along theses areas as well. of note is that a large south swell is modelled to arrive on or near the 4th of may. updates on this episode will be posted as i get them.
Posted by megaprober at 08:58 PM | Comments (1)
April 27, 2005
thusday
THURSDAY...new northwesterly swell should fill in overnight. buoy observations are showing primarily groundswell which for surfers is a good sign. the waimea buoy is recording 3 foot groundswell which will translate to overhead surf at select beaches. the forecast is for waveheights to increase overnight and tomorrow and waves should be near the 5ft threshold by the afternoon. shouthern shore are looking small for tomorrow but, a change is on the horizon as the south pacific has generated some juice. winds will be very light or non-existent in the AM and then go northerly with the passing of a weak cold front.
the north pacific is beginning to shut down as evidence of the smaller wave heights and larger gaps between swells. the next week will see two more swells with models pointing to a calm period in the north pacific. the following week will see the north pacific dominated by various high pressure cells that prevent the formation of comples low pressure systems which generally produce our waves here on the north shore. the next swell will arrive during the wee-hours of the morning of the 27th and surf will be near 4ft for the down patrollers on wednesday. the system associatd with this swell formed just west of the dateline and will speed rapidly toward the gulf of alaska producing moderate wavesheights due to the movement of the storm. the following swell will arrive on the morning of the 1st, however this swell will be slightly smaller as the fetch is over less water an the distance to the resource (wave generation) is slightly futher away. waves will be in the range of 3-4ft at the standout spots with the swell coming and giong over a period of three days max.
the southern shores are looking up with a fairly large system forming south of new zealand and moving northeasterly to just east of new zealand over a distance of 1400nm in the direction of hawaii. with seas reaching near 30ft and the winds acting on open agitated waters for a good 4 days this swell should be the first large south swell of the season. waves should arrive sometime on or near the 5th of may with possibly a classic late afternoon episode of forerunners in the 17-20sec energy bands. the swell will arrive straight out of the south so expect a little more boost with less islands for the swell to have to negotiate. the blog will be posted as details unfold.
Posted by megaprober at 09:31 PM | Comments (0)
April 25, 2005
TUESDAY DETAILS
MONDAY THE 26TH...surf is looking to bottom out for the week on tuesday as most shores will be chest to head high at best. the northerly buoys are showing some short period energy hanging around. the north shore may have some residual surf for the morning, but the situation may be pretty bleak. a new northwesterly swell is expected on wednesday with waves nearing the 4ft catagory. the aquatorial buoy is showing new signs of life with an abrupt boost of energy in the 17sec band which generally is the protocol for good south swells. tomorrow will see waves very similar to today in size and possible even less frequency. winds will be the usual trades possibly slightly lighter.
the north pacific is beginning to shut down as evidence of the smaller wave heights and larger gaps between swells. the next week will see two more swells with models pointing to a calm period in the north pacific. the following week will see the north pacific dominated by various high pressure cells that prevent the formation of comples low pressure systems which generally produce our waves here on the north shore. the next swell will arrive during the wee-hours of the morning of the 27th and surf will be near 4ft for the down patrollers on wednesday. the system associatd with this swell formed just west of the dateline and will speed rapidly toward the gulf of alaska producing moderate wavesheights due to the movement of the storm. the following swell will arrive on the morning of the 1st, however this swell will be slightly smaller as the fetch is over less water an the distance to the resource (wave generation) is slightly futher away. waves will be in the range of 3-4ft at the standout spots with the swell coming and giong over a period of three days max.
the southern shores are looking up with a fairly large system forming south of new zealand and moving northeasterly to just east of new zealand over a distance of 1400nm in the direction of hawaii. with seas reaching near 30ft and the winds acting on open agitated waters for a good 4 days this swell should be the first large south swell of the season. waves should arrive sometime on or near the 5th of may with possibly a classic late afternoon episode of forerunners in the 17-20sec energy bands. the swell will arrive straight out of the south so expect a little more boost with less islands for the swell to have to negotiate. the blog will be posted as details unfold.
Posted by megaprober at 06:04 PM | Comments (0)
April 24, 2005
SUNDAY THE 25TH
SUNDAY THE 25TH...waves are looking to be down from today. buoy reports are confirming this as they are registerning less energy than they were 24hrs ago. the south shore should still have some leftover juice out of the south in the waist to chest high range. northern shores will likely be around the same as this past northwesterly swell checks out. winds may back off slightly from today but, will still be in the usual summertime mode. all in all monday will be a mediocre day at best.
bodysurfed point panics this afternoon. when i first showed up there were two guys and surfboarding the wave and one other guy bodysurfing not really able to catch anything. i was sort of pissed because the place is off limits to surfers. i mean we'd all like to go surf point panics on a sunday afternoon with nobody out...right. finally a cop come walking down the pathway and the dude books back over to the lefts like he wasn't surfin it....bullshit i say. anyway i'm equally pissed at the other bodysurfer becuase he was the surfers buddy and told him the cop was coming. its simple don't board surf panics. if you do others are giong to think its cool and things will just escalate.
as for the waves they were fun. got three good barrels andleft the water feeling stoked. even had the place to myself for most of the session. definitely a good getaway spot for the summertime blues
Posted by megaprober at 07:12 PM | Comments (0)
April 22, 2005
SATURDAY THE 23RD
FOR SATURDAY...waves are likely to be found on almost all shores. the latest buoy reports are looking good with both the equatorial buoy and buoy 1 showning significant jumps in the long period energy bands. with the equatorial buoy 2-3 days travel time swell is not expected to reach oahu over the weekend, however the current swell that peaked today will linger into tomorrow and should keep surf locally in the 2-3ft range for most of the day. sunday may announce the arrival of the next south swell to affect our shores. the north shore may be the spot tomorrow as a new northwest swell is already pinging buoy 1 and should produce surf in the 4ft range by mid-day. winds will be trades as they have been now for well over a month.
Posted by megaprober at 07:34 PM | Comments (0)
April 21, 2005
FRIDAY THE 21ST
FOR FRIDAY...waves are looking good for southern shores. buoy forecasts are saying that the sout swell currently affecting the islands will peak late tonight and that will translate to good south juice along southern shores for the morning hours and possible a slow decline for the rest of the day. south shores will be solid 3ft with larger sets at select spots. waves of 15sec intervals arriving out of roughly 190deg will make spots that enjoy straight souths slightly bigger. northern shores will continue a slow decline but, a new reinforcement will arrive late tomorrow night and forerunners may be seen near dark. this swell will not be nearly as large as the last, but at least there will be waves other than town to feast on.
Posted by megaprober at 10:11 PM | Comments (0)
April 20, 2005
thursday the 21st
FOR THURSDAY... surf along northern shores is looking bleak for most of the day as waves are on their way down after a great northerly swell that has given us waves all week. buoy 1 is showing a major decrease in energy tonight thus i'm calling for a big drop in wave heights for tomorrow. expect 2-3ft surf at best with windy trades to accompany. the southern buoys are picking up long period swell energy and the call for the south shore is surf near 3ft and remaining so all day.
www.jutecast.com
Posted by megaprober at 09:20 PM | Comments (0)
still going
as of 6:36am surf looking good on northern shores with waves in the 4-6ft range with some larger sets. winds are looking ok, but expect easterly trades all day.
Posted by megaprober at 07:36 AM | Comments (0)
April 19, 2005
4/20
FOR WEDNESDAY...surf will be on a slow decline over the next few days. the northwest swell still has plenty of juice leftover from buoy 1 readings as of 8:36pm so it will be a good bet that waves will be around for the morning. look for surf to be in the 3-5ft range with some larger sets leftover here and there. winds are looking to be easterly trades in the 20mph range.
details
the storm system responisible for the current northwest swell lasted for several days and had a wide fetch over a large area. the result is that this swell is likely to stick around for a couple of days. the swell will slowly decline into thursday with waves bottoming out in the 2-3ft range. by late thursday a new swell from the northwest will fill in and put waves back into the 4-5ft range with some larger sets. the next swell is not expected to be nearly as powerful due to the lower winds speeds, smaller fetch distance and remote source.
buoy 28 is registering two swells. the first, with 10-12sec periods, is likely the remanants of a small south-southeasterly swell that arrived a few days ago. however another swell is expected on wednesday and is likely to produce head high waves or slightly bigger over the next few days into the weekend.
trade winds are expected to fluctuate with the northerly passing of high pressure systems. so every three to four days expect winds to alternate between strong and light.
Posted by megaprober at 09:40 PM | Comments (0)
April 18, 2005
monday the 18th
buoy 1 has detected a significany increase in energy overnight. wavesheights have also increased reaching 10ft. given the travel time of 8hrs and that the waimea buoy has also registered and increase in energy waves should be 4ft silod in the morning and build all day reaching near 8ft on the sets.
Posted by megaprober at 06:34 AM | Comments (0)
April 17, 2005
monday the 11th
latest news and observations from today. small surf expected to fill in and overlap for the mojority of the work week on southern shores. three small south swells have been generated east of new zealand over the last week or so. the first of which arrived over the weekend and produced shoulder high waves for sunday into monday. the next swell will arrive wednesday and produce hights similar to those over the weekend. yet another swell is forecated to arrive on friday that looks to be a notch larger and may reach 3ft local style waveheights. that translates to slightly overhead in most universes.
east swell will continue to pound the windward sides of the islands as trades will remain strong both locally and upstream for the work week. expect windswell to hang in just below advisary levels foe most of the week and possibly cross the threshold as trade winds fluctuate throughout the week.
northern shore are lookin to see a small bump into the three foot catagory on wednesday into thursday with choppy conditions prevailing with the strong and gusty trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:16 PM | Comments (0)
waves on the way
buoy one has jumped significantly over the course of the day with wavesheights on the rise and swell periods registering in the 20sec band. this would signal the arrival of the new northwest swell bound to strike oahu late tonight. foreunners of this swell may be seen before sundown today and those surfers who are waiting it out may get some reward.
Posted by megaprober at 06:14 PM | Comments (1)