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April 27, 2005
thusday
THURSDAY...new northwesterly swell should fill in overnight. buoy observations are showing primarily groundswell which for surfers is a good sign. the waimea buoy is recording 3 foot groundswell which will translate to overhead surf at select beaches. the forecast is for waveheights to increase overnight and tomorrow and waves should be near the 5ft threshold by the afternoon. shouthern shore are looking small for tomorrow but, a change is on the horizon as the south pacific has generated some juice. winds will be very light or non-existent in the AM and then go northerly with the passing of a weak cold front.
the north pacific is beginning to shut down as evidence of the smaller wave heights and larger gaps between swells. the next week will see two more swells with models pointing to a calm period in the north pacific. the following week will see the north pacific dominated by various high pressure cells that prevent the formation of comples low pressure systems which generally produce our waves here on the north shore. the next swell will arrive during the wee-hours of the morning of the 27th and surf will be near 4ft for the down patrollers on wednesday. the system associatd with this swell formed just west of the dateline and will speed rapidly toward the gulf of alaska producing moderate wavesheights due to the movement of the storm. the following swell will arrive on the morning of the 1st, however this swell will be slightly smaller as the fetch is over less water an the distance to the resource (wave generation) is slightly futher away. waves will be in the range of 3-4ft at the standout spots with the swell coming and giong over a period of three days max.
the southern shores are looking up with a fairly large system forming south of new zealand and moving northeasterly to just east of new zealand over a distance of 1400nm in the direction of hawaii. with seas reaching near 30ft and the winds acting on open agitated waters for a good 4 days this swell should be the first large south swell of the season. waves should arrive sometime on or near the 5th of may with possibly a classic late afternoon episode of forerunners in the 17-20sec energy bands. the swell will arrive straight out of the south so expect a little more boost with less islands for the swell to have to negotiate. the blog will be posted as details unfold.
Posted by megaprober at April 27, 2005 09:31 PM