May 26, 2005
5/26
FRIDAY...surf will be on the 3ft range along northern shores out of the north-northeast. due to the short period associated with this swell expect a weaker than usual 3ft as refraction will not be much of a factor when adding power to the swells. surf along the south shore will hang in at 1-2ft for most of the day and that will be the norm for most of the next 5 days until next week when a south-southwest swell should arrive bringing surf into the solid 4ft range with larger sets. winds will be typical trades.
fiji is on warning for that swell i was talking about recently. the asp fiji contest period is on and it will coincide with the arrival of the massive swell that's on the way. its a safe bet that history is going to be made in the next week in fiji in regards to the asp.
at last glance the storm is now packing winds near 80mph and seas are 40-50ft on the average. this of course means that there are larger rouge sets out there. even the infamous sean collins is claiming and shares similar words by saying a.) fiji doesn't get any bigger and b.) the storm movement is as good as it gets. basically this means that after initial swell generation the storm can move in any direction. obviously the ideal direction is to have the storm move in the direction that the swell is travelling. the good news is that the storm is doing just that and this will help miinimize wave decay (basically keeping the waves large and mean as opposed to letting them diminish).
as the storm moves north-east it will continue to aggravate an already massively angry ocean even further until the swell finally outruns the storm or the storm changes direction or it dissipates. models are showing the system affecting the ocean for another few days and that will come into play when the swell finally arrives on hawaii's doorstep.
so what does this all mean? fiji (cloudbreak) will see sets near true 18 feet. and restaurants near the 10ft mark. so far forecasters are under estimating, at least that's my guess, and will become believers when the first genuine 18ft bombs light up places they never thought existed.
but really what does this mean for us here in hawaii? definitely swell by wednesday possibly building toward the end of the week. how big? i'm guessing near the 6ft mark. the next week will be a true test to all wave forecasters as this senerio happens rarely and this particular swell window opens up only every couple of years. there's a shitload of islands the swell must negotiate and a longer distance of travel time the swell must go when compared to our other south swell window east of new zealand. but the swells do make it to hawaii form the tasman sea and back in 1995, i believe, that one giant swell that really generated 10-12ft sets at the bowl passed throught the tasman sea before crossing new zealand into the pacific giving hawaii two pulses of swell. that fist pulse was near 8ft so odds are in favor for once that this swell might hold some surprises and be larger than most expect. or not
Posted by megaprober at May 26, 2005 09:57 PM