May 30, 2005
surfing again
today was my return to the north shore from a three month hiatus for reasons i'd rather not go into and no it wasn't jail although it may have well been. life in hawaii for most of us without access to the surf just plain sucks. all i could do is read bud's blog reports and be bummed that i couldn't get in the waves and to make it worse all my friends were scoring over the last three months. funny 'cause toward the end i was actually getting real jaded about spots..sort of a snob if you will. today i was so stoked to see swell that when my friends paddled out at the rock pile i swam out without fins and just sucked it all in. i wasn't to keen on backsiding the rockpile when it was dredging over the reef and i hadn't touched my 6'4" in over four months. when i did finally surf i kept looking for that danm cinder block i was dragging around when i was paddling...neva did find it. so after getting stuck at the top of numerous waves and wobbling awkwardly on my fist stand ups around the halfway through the session my arms started coming 'round and i began to feel like i was surfing again. all i can say is there are few things in life that i can imagine are more torturous to me than living on oahu and not having the ability to get to the north shore. my debts are paid and lessons learned...see you out there.
Posted by megaprober at 10:57 PM | Comments (0)
May 29, 2005
5/30
MONDAY...there is a possibility for some surf on monday as a northwest swell was modelled to arrive sometime during the day. tonight buoy 1 is confirming this suspicion with swell periods jumping up to 15sec out of the nortwest. the power reading has also increased during the day as well so the call is for 2-3ft surf by morning with good conditions. i also can confirm as an eye witness that i was at off-the-wall today and timed set waves that began rolling in every 10-15min. get 'em while you can.
Posted by megaprober at 08:03 PM | Comments (0)
May 28, 2005
5/29
SUNDAY...surf will be smaller than today with prettymuch flat conditions on the north shore and 1-2ft surf on southern shores. the only relief may be wind swell and that is a stretch. good diving conditions abound so take advantage. winds will be the same old same old.
Posted by megaprober at 07:08 PM | Comments (0)
May 27, 2005
5/28
SATURDAY...small surf once again as no real swells are in the immediate forecast. what's left over from that north-northeast swell will hardly be worth mentioning by tomorrow. basically i'd be calling the north shore flat to a foot. the south shore had a slight bump, but surf will peak and most likely be slowing down by tomorrow afternoon. winds will be light trades for the day with the potential for seabreezes later in the day.
fiji is on warning for that swell i was talking about recently. the asp fiji contest period is on and it will coincide with the arrival of the massive swell that's on the way. its a safe bet that history is going to be made in the next week in fiji in regards to the asp.
at last glance the storm is now packing winds near 80mph and seas are 40-50ft on the average. this of course means that there are larger rouge sets out there. even the infamous sean collins is claiming and shares similar words by saying a.) fiji doesn't get any bigger and b.) the storm movement is as good as it gets. basically this means that after initial swell generation the storm can move in any direction. obviously the ideal direction is to have the storm move in the direction that the swell is travelling. the good news is that the storm is doing just that and this will help miinimize wave decay (basically keeping the waves large and mean as opposed to letting them diminish).
as the storm moves north-east it will continue to aggravate an already massively angry ocean even further until the swell finally outruns the storm or the storm changes direction or it dissipates. models are showing the system affecting the ocean for another few days and that will come into play when the swell finally arrives on hawaii's doorstep.
so what does this all mean? fiji (cloudbreak) will see sets near true 18 feet. and restaurants near the 10ft mark. so far forecasters are under estimating, at least that's my guess, and will become believers when the first genuine 18ft bombs light up places they never thought existed.
but really what does this mean for us here in hawaii? definitely swell by wednesday possibly building toward the end of the week. how big? i'm guessing near the 6ft mark. the next week will be a true test to all wave forecasters as this senerio happens rarely and this particular swell window opens up only every couple of years. there's a shitload of islands the swell must negotiate and a longer distance of travel time the swell must go when compared to our other south swell window east of new zealand. but the swells do make it to hawaii form the tasman sea and back in 1995, i believe, that one giant swell that really generated 10-12ft sets at the bowl passed throught the tasman sea before crossing new zealand into the pacific giving hawaii two pulses of swell. that fist pulse was near 8ft so odds are in favor for once that this swell might hold some surprises and be larger than most expect. or not
Posted by megaprober at 10:37 PM | Comments (0)
May 26, 2005
5/26
FRIDAY...surf will be on the 3ft range along northern shores out of the north-northeast. due to the short period associated with this swell expect a weaker than usual 3ft as refraction will not be much of a factor when adding power to the swells. surf along the south shore will hang in at 1-2ft for most of the day and that will be the norm for most of the next 5 days until next week when a south-southwest swell should arrive bringing surf into the solid 4ft range with larger sets. winds will be typical trades.
fiji is on warning for that swell i was talking about recently. the asp fiji contest period is on and it will coincide with the arrival of the massive swell that's on the way. its a safe bet that history is going to be made in the next week in fiji in regards to the asp.
at last glance the storm is now packing winds near 80mph and seas are 40-50ft on the average. this of course means that there are larger rouge sets out there. even the infamous sean collins is claiming and shares similar words by saying a.) fiji doesn't get any bigger and b.) the storm movement is as good as it gets. basically this means that after initial swell generation the storm can move in any direction. obviously the ideal direction is to have the storm move in the direction that the swell is travelling. the good news is that the storm is doing just that and this will help miinimize wave decay (basically keeping the waves large and mean as opposed to letting them diminish).
as the storm moves north-east it will continue to aggravate an already massively angry ocean even further until the swell finally outruns the storm or the storm changes direction or it dissipates. models are showing the system affecting the ocean for another few days and that will come into play when the swell finally arrives on hawaii's doorstep.
so what does this all mean? fiji (cloudbreak) will see sets near true 18 feet. and restaurants near the 10ft mark. so far forecasters are under estimating, at least that's my guess, and will become believers when the first genuine 18ft bombs light up places they never thought existed.
but really what does this mean for us here in hawaii? definitely swell by wednesday possibly building toward the end of the week. how big? i'm guessing near the 6ft mark. the next week will be a true test to all wave forecasters as this senerio happens rarely and this particular swell window opens up only every couple of years. there's a shitload of islands the swell must negotiate and a longer distance of travel time the swell must go when compared to our other south swell window east of new zealand. but the swells do make it to hawaii form the tasman sea and back in 1995, i believe, that one giant swell that really generated 10-12ft sets at the bowl passed throught the tasman sea before crossing new zealand into the pacific giving hawaii two pulses of swell. that fist pulse was near 8ft so odds are in favor for once that this swell might hold some surprises and be larger than most expect. or not
Posted by megaprober at 09:57 PM | Comments (0)
May 22, 2005
5/23/05
MONDAY...small surf island wide for the start of the work week and most likely the story for the rest of the week. there are no significant swells affecting the shores of oahu or the rest of hawaii for that matter. expect background summertime groundswell for southern shores with sets in the chest high range. northern shores will have weak north swell hardly worth mentioning. it will be a good day to work and save the surf for another day. winds will be light trades.
looking ahead there is few potential sources for good southerly swell in arriving in about 10-14 days. waves could reach the 5ft mark if the scenerio unfolds like the models are saying.
Posted by megaprober at 11:37 PM | Comments (0)
May 21, 2005
may 21st
SUNDAY...surf is looking typical for this time of year. waves along both shores with small weak surf along northern shores and subtle 1-3ft surf along southern shores provided by remote storms deep down under. southern shores will remain in the head high range for sunday with 14sec ground swell form 200deg. this will tranfer into head high sets at select spots and even a little over head with the correct tidal push. winds are looking to be typical trades for the day. northern shores will see a slight bump with a small northeast swell that will fill in today and into tonight.
www.jutecast.com
tahiti swell page
2
Posted by megaprober at 02:56 PM | Comments (0)
May 18, 2005
thursday
THURSDAY...buoy 1 is popping off as of this evening and from what i hear has been most of the day. the waimea buoy is also showing significant swell out of the northwest. the synapsis is this; a nortwest swell is grazing the islands and that means that the south west corner is brushing the islands as the main swath of the swell goes by to the north and the east. had we been in the main path we would be experiencing probably double the size of the waves we'll see tomorrow. waves will be 3-4ft with occ 5ft sets at the best spots. waves may seem a bit inconsistent as i said earlier we are only seeing the scraps from this swell. winds typical trades. town side a solid 2ft and that's confirmed as i saw the waves myself as i drove by the head and saw southerly swells affecting the reefs.
Posted by megaprober at 10:30 PM | Comments (0)
May 17, 2005
bad news for north swell over the weekend
WEDNESDAY...surf along northern shores to bump back up to the 3-5ft range late in the day and into the night. the swell should be fairly short lived and possibly inconsistent. winds will be getting lighter as the day wears on and continue to do so for the rest of the week. southern shores will be small and near the waist high range at best although some new energy is likely to fill in during the day.
in other affairs the large northwest swell that predicted to arrive sunday is no longer expected to afect hawaii. models have shifted the storms formation drastically and has it stregthening much further north and east of the main hawaiian islands.
Posted by megaprober at 09:54 PM | Comments (0)
May 16, 2005
late season north swells
5/17
TUESDAY...surf is on the rebound for northern shores as tomorrow it will bottom out in the head high range and possibly start to climb back up overnight. for the day however expect waves in the 3ft range solid with some leftover sets. winds will be similar to how they were today with typical trades inthe 10-20mph range. southern shores will be small to tiny and remain that way for most of the week.
new late season north swells are on the way!!!
the fist is a swell due to arrive tomorrow from a storm source that formed in the nortwest pacific and moved rapidly into the gulf of alaska. as it transgressed it set up a captured fetch about 1500nm out that will produced waves just below the 20ft threshold. given the travel time and the short duration of the captured fetch waves are not modeled to get mucharger than the 5ft range. one of the key aspects of this system was that its strongest area of wave production was aiming just north of hawaii and thus the largest waves will travel just north of hawaii. expect waves to arrive on wednesday in the 3-5ft range out of 320deg with the occasional 6ft set at select reefs that favor theses types of swells. my guess is that this swell will not be overly consistent as we are only receiving athe edge of the main swath of waves.
the next storm in the series is looking to be a much larger more winterlike system. this system will begin taking form on thursday and then rapidly organize on friday into a fairly larger and compact system typical of the winter time north pacific. winds will speed up to 55mph and remain so for nearly 18hrs. seas are expected to reach near 30ft in the 345deg band which is very favorable for hawaii and with the close proximity of only 1200nm this swell should reach the 10ft catagory and be large enough to excite some of the outer reefs. as the storm passes to the north winds will remain favorable and the swell will swing more northerly by late sunday into monday.
from the models now the call is for an abrupt rise on early sunday morning with waves in the 6-8ft range with some sets near the 10ft mark. winds may cooperate for us surfers as again as the storm passes north the large north pacific high pressure cell should break down and that means light winds. a last blast of winter no doubt on the menu!!!
Posted by megaprober at 08:17 PM | Comments (0)
May 15, 2005
may 16th
MONDAY...surf will fill in during the day and overnight on northern shores. the arriving swell is modeled to be fairly weak and short threfore waves on this forecast are not going to be much larger than 3ft at most location. waves will arrive out of 315deg with 12-15sec periods. waves with these shorter wave periods will allow less refraction thus 4ft sets will be incommon except at spots that the swell hits ideally. winds will strong for most of the day with wind gusts near 25mph. southern shores will be small with infrequent sets neat the waist high range.
www.jutecast.com
Posted by megaprober at 11:52 AM | Comments (0)
May 12, 2005
friday the 13th
FRIDAY...surf is looking small for friday as no real change is seen when looking at all the indicators. northern shores will bottom out during the day at less than 2ft at most spots. as swell period from the remaining swell become shorter shoaling effect has less chance to refract the waves and thus any waves coming through will be weak and close together. southern shores will also see typical summertime background energy for the day as no real swell is coming through and models are not showing much of an improvement in the immediate future. winds will be similar to today and may even come up a notch.
Posted by megaprober at 08:46 PM | Comments (0)
May 11, 2005
may 11th
THURSDAY...small waves once again for the island with northern shores still receiving a little late season energy from the west-nortwest. waves there will still be head high at the largest spots with clean conditions for the AM. southern shore will small with typical summertime background energy at select reefs. winds should remain light in the morning and start to gain speed as the day wears on.
Posted by megaprober at 04:23 PM | Comments (0)
may 11th
waves are up on the north shore with sets near the 4ft range. the possibility of larger waves later in the day. odds are that the time to get it is now as most people didn't catch the warning signs and wind are dead calm. expect sea breezes later in the day and those rushing to get the surf from work will likely be sadly dissapointed as the waves will have seemed to be mushy and smaller than the reports claimed. sorry you missed it maybe next time.
Posted by megaprober at 09:24 AM | Comments (0)