June 21, 2005
hump day....new forecast
6/22
WEDNESDAY...a new south swell arriving from 180deg will begin to affect buoy 2 by 1am this morning. the long period swells will take rougly 4-6hrs to reach oahu so by 8am they should start arriving locally. however, because the inital swells have low waveheights and with long lulls don't expect much for surf until the afternoon and even then with the ultra high tides most spots will be crap. so the call for tomorrow will be left over 2-3ft surf from the last swell and then a slow increase out of the south during the day. the swell will have peaked overnight wednesday night so thursday morning may be good with the tides. if you find head high waves tomorow consider yourself blessed. of note though is that there is a new swell that will put to shame the 3ft swell arriving tomorrow so get in some practice.
looking ahead in the forecast over the few days there may be some waves on the menu.
summary...small out of season west-nortwest swell. multiple south swells with one being large. trades to crank for the next 5 days.
details...the north pacific is sending us a gift for the weekend. a moderate compact storm is currently brewing about 2200nm WNW of hawaii. the storm will strengthen over the next 12-18hrs and wind will reach speeds of over 40mph. the fetch of the system is roughly 600nm which for most north pacific wavemaker is pretty small, but the winds will be able to whip th seas up to near 20ft. as the system moves into late wednesday the system will fall apart and weaken. before it does it will approach to within 1900nm of hawaii which is better than 2200nm. waves are due to arrive on friday out 310deg +/- 10deg with initial wave periods of 15sec. the main swath will arrive in the 12-14sec band which will play a moderate factor when it comes to wave refraction. the swell should peak late friday and drop saturday.
southern shores are receiving energy from different sources originating due south of hawaii. the 180deg window for hawaii is a good one as there are not nearly as many islands blocking the swell plus tahiti can give a glimps of waht's to come. currently tahiti just reseived a swell that peaked at over 10ft on the local waveheight scale. this is good news as by the time it reaches here nearly 60% of the energy will have dissapated. the math in this case is easy 10ft there will equal 4ft here give or take a foot. the system responsible for the swell was a large winter storm that moved slowly between 170-140deg and around 40-30deg south. this translates to about 3200nm out from hawaii and very close tahiti. with a more northerly location than most storm in the south pacific this, as mentioned ealier, is good news for hawaii. closer means less wave decay. expect this swell to start filling in late thursday night and affecting local shores by friday morning. friday may see sets approaching the 5ft local style with the swell remaining at advisary levels for most of saturday and dropping into sunday. the swell was generated over a 3 day period so it is likely to hang around at least that long.
Posted by megaprober at June 21, 2005 09:09 PM
Comments
Mahalo Mega! Sounds good
Posted by: Hmark at June 21, 2005 10:39 PM