July 30, 2005
7/31
SUNDAY...another small and pathetic display of surf being generated from the pacific. a small southerly bump is expected to fill in as the day wears on into the 2ft range at the largest spots. this episode will last several days and keep some background energy on southern shores for the early part of the work week. a small bump may happen on northern and western shores with some long period swell associated with typhoon banyan. speaking from past experiences these distant swells from the west pacific typhoons are very similar to south swells where the sets are very infrequent and hit at very select reefs. for the most part if you look at the ocean you'd probably not even know there was swell. easterly shores will top lists with 3-4ft windswell along with windy choppy conditions.
32 days left until september 1st.
on another note the tropics of the east and central pacific should be watched as some models are showing activity.
Posted by megaprober at 08:45 PM | Comments (0)
July 29, 2005
7/30
SATURDAY...not much of a change in the surf scene as tradewind swell will top waveheight lists for the next few days including tomorrow. my recent review of the buoy reports show promarily windswell with some small energy out of the south. the equatorial buoy did pop off over the last two days and is still showing some small energy in the long period wave bands. this may equate to a small bump locally on southern shore later tonight and gret morning surfers. the large central pacific high pressure that generally controls the tradewind flow for the islands is in full order and looks to remain firmly positioned for at least the next week. look for makapu'u to top waveheights in the 2-3 occ 4ft range with trade swell. winds will hang around for the day with gusts near 25mph.
Posted by megaprober at 10:02 PM | Comments (0)
July 28, 2005
7/29
FRIDAY... small surf island wide with strog and gusty trades generating waves that will top the list. look for eastern shores to be 3-4ft with onshore and stormy conditions. waves may be found for those that know where to look. south shores will build slightly as a smallsoutherly bump arrives out 200deg with 14-16sec wave periods. northern and western shores will be flat. trades will crank with gusts up to 30mph at some locales.
Posted by megaprober at 09:10 PM | Comments (0)
July 27, 2005
bow wow
THURSDAY... if you must know waves will be small once again as there is little in the way of groundswell in the vicinity of hawaii. the only relief will be tradewind swell that may reach head high on the sets. winds will of course accompany the surf as that is what generates it. surf will be meager and winds will not. wish i had more to talk about, but this is the dog days of summer. don't get fat...bow frickin wow.
Posted by megaprober at 07:41 PM | Comments (0)
July 26, 2005
7/26
WEDNESDAY...small surf along north, south and west shores as there is very little groundswell in the vicinty ofthe islands. southern shores are looking at background surf from the deep south from both the tasman sea and the south pacific east of new zealand. south shores will see waves arriving from 210deg and 180deg with slightly longer wave periods from 210deg. the difference will be negligible as the surf will be waist high at best and ith wave periods of 12-13sec refraction will be minimal. northen shores will be tiny and western shores unridable. trade swell may fill in to ridable surf as the trades will crank both upstream and locally. 36 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 09:59 PM | Comments (0)
July 25, 2005
7/26
TUESDAY...small surf will be the call for tuesday as nothing significant is on the horizon. surf will be back down to deep southern background scraps that somehow made the journey. most of the storms associated with the swell around during this week were not large or were poorly directed toward hawaii or both. trade winds will begin to howl as they have been for most of the month, however, this time they will pick up with gusts to near 30+mph at some locations. anyone playing with the wind should be careful as it will be cranking
Posted by megaprober at 09:24 PM | Comments (0)
July 22, 2005
7/23
7/23
SATURDAY...surf will bump a bit overnight as a new south swell fills in. buoy 2 is showing the energy associated with this swell episode so expect at least another 12-16hrs of swell left for southern shores. again the surfers heed the warning as these south swells are merely gifts from deep downunder and surf is generally waist to head high at best as these swells are caused by moderate storm roughly 3500-5000nm away and by the time they get here they have lost nearly 80% of their power. it truly takes a giant storm with 40+ seas over at least a 3 day period with a fetch at least 1500nm long to produce anything past the 4ft range. and then the storm has to be ideally placed north of new zealand just east of the islands to not be blocked by the islands of the south pacific. if you really want to see how an ocean should produce swell from the south just check out the indian ocean as it has been firing non-stop for the last month with powerful swells unobstructed by islands. indonesia is truly blessed with consistent powerful south swell that hawaii could only dream of.
Posted by megaprober at 07:35 PM | Comments (0)
July 21, 2005
7/22
FRIDAY...another small south swell to fill in overnight. buoys are showing a bit more energy this afternoon than this mornig. this implies that there will be more swell filling in overnight an a slight increase in waves for the morning patrol. as with the last swell this one will be relatively small and head high will be tha max, but it will waves and that's better than nothing. conditions will be windy again with the trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:37 PM | Comments (0)
July 20, 2005
7/21
7/21
THURSDAY...surf will drop slightly for the start of the day, but another south swell will be right on the heels of the present one. an identical swell to today should fill in as a replacement for tomorrow thursday. wavewatch3 (WWlll) models are showing indentical wavehights at the southern buoys as was on wednesday. the storm associated with this system formed immediately after the one that generated monday and tuesday's swell so the the call is for it to fill in on thursday respectively. the buoys aren't showing much...yet, but what i've noticed is that south swell don't really register strongly on the southern buoys so if anything even is registering in the long period energy bands that's usually call for celebration. disregard above remark on reference to the equatorial buoy because swells generally do show significant energy readings. in any case look for decent surf in the head high range with good low tide conditions for the morning with the new swell filling in and mushing later in the day. trades will be there to greet.
went to point panic early this morning and found good conditions and a very low tide. waves were 2-3ft and fairly consistent. went out and caught a bomb on my way out. the wave was so good that i only stayed out another half an hour because i knew that was going to be the one. some poor girl was told to go in straight on the rocks and was found bear hugging the rocks with waves bashing her. i was amazed by her good spirits by an otherwise uneccessary situation. went to makapu'u and bodysurfed the outside peak again. not breaking as good and can't wait for it to fire as it is a great work out and peaceful by yourself. been amazed at the visiblility of the water over there even though it's rough the water is crystal clear.
Posted by megaprober at 10:25 PM | Comments (0)
July 19, 2005
7/20
7/20
WEDNESDAY...more small south swell on the way as the present swell that peaked today will slowly dwindle down and then be replaced by yet another small south swell from the same direction. these swells are from the deep south pacific and with there moderate waveheights at primary generation the swells are mostly meagar leftovers that lack in power and size. the next swell may be rougly the same size or slightly smaller than its predecessor with waves hanging in the 3ft range max at select spots that favor refraction. the call tomorrow will be 2-3ft surf in the morning with smaller fading swell by the afternoon, but a reinforcement will start to show later in the day with 2ft solid sets at select spots. take into mind though that with the ultra high tides the swell will be minimal at most spots. trades gusting away as usual.
Posted by megaprober at 08:58 PM | Comments (0)
July 18, 2005
tuesday 7/19
7/19
TUESDAY...rising waves along southern shores are looking to be more reality than myth. all buoys are showing some energy in the long period bands which is generally typical of ground swell. an eye witness that i spoke with this evening claimed there were waves to be had at the head. WWlll models are showing an increase out of 190-200deg during the day tomorrow that should top out in the 3ft range at most surf spots in town. with waveheights modeled to be near 3ft at the south buoy local surf heights will be arrive slightly smaller, however, due to refraction, especially with the forerunners of the swell, waves should be head high by morning and remain so all day. winds will be gusty trades.
it should also be noted that an intersting swarm of earthquakes has struck off the north coast of the big island...one measuring 5.2 on the richtor scale. this area of quakes has a depth of near 7-11mi and has the look of a possible swarm.
Posted by megaprober at 11:46 PM | Comments (0)
July 17, 2005
7/18
MONDAY...small surf once again with south shores topping the list. a new south swell was registering on buoy 28 on sturday with significant energy in the 17-20sec bands which is indictive of south swells. surf should be locally 1-2ft tomorrow in the mornng and focusing on the 2ft size by late afternoon. surf on tuesday may build yet further if the swell fills in as expected. north shores will be flat as usual for this time of the year, but of course we already knew that. trade winds and rain squalls may be the norm tomorrow.
Posted by megaprober at 10:06 PM | Comments (0)
July 15, 2005
ding repair
7/16
SATURDAY...small...no miniscule surf for saturday july 16th. all resources are pointing south meaning that nothing short of waist high will be around for tomorrow. due to this feeble report and the smashed hand i have in a cast the pain it's worth typing is not worth making a lenghty report. try a new sport this weekend or fix a board as conditions are going to be excellent for ding repair.
Posted by megaprober at 06:51 PM | Comments (0)
July 14, 2005
friday smashed hand
FRIDAY... surf will continue a downward trend tomorrow friday as the latest in the series of south swells departs the islands. buoy reports are showing low energy and small blips in the long period wavelengths which indicates that the swell is still around, but on its way out. look for surf to be waist high and inconsistent and slowly droping from there. because the waning phase of swells is generally in the shorter slower waveperiod refraction is somewhat less of a factor so freak sets are less likely to occur. winds will be blowing in the 10-20mph range from the east-northeast as usual for this time of the year. next swell is due on sunday with head high surf from the south.
on a heavier note i was fortunate enough to crush my hand between a one ton stand up mast and a fence post. the boom swung over and smashed my hand when it wobbled over. i was very fortunate as if i took the full brunt of the boom i would probably have sustained much more damage. had i been standing between the fence and the boom i most likely would have suffered internal injuries from bein crushed. very scary and a point taken wake-up call.
Posted by megaprober at 09:22 PM | Comments (0)
July 12, 2005
point panics at dusk
7/13
WEDNESDAY...a small bump on southern shores for tomorrow. from first hand experience i am the eye witness that there is some swell coming in on southern shores. i was at point panics this evening at around 1900hrs and there was definitely a small swell comong in...quite consistently i might add for south shore standards. the swell seemed very south with a touch of west which is pretty much on cue with what models were predicting. waves werre coming in every 10min or so and sometimes sets had more than three waves. it is my guess that this is the forerunners of the new south swell. the swell should peak early tomorrow in the head high range and then begin to decline by the afternoon. the south-southeast swell was tough to distinguish from the main southerly ground swell so for arguments sake i'm claiming its smaller ot has yet to arrive. buoy 4 is picking up slightly more energy than buoys 2 and 3 so it is a good bet that larger waves are east of us here in hawaii.
Posted by megaprober at 10:47 PM | Comments (0)
July 11, 2005
tuesday
TUESDAY...surf will start out on the decline fron what's left over from this weekends swell. a reinforcement, however, is expected by the afternoon with the arrival of a new south and south-southeast swell. buoys are not showing much in the way of new energy on the charts so the chance of new swell by the afternoon is quickly decreasing. with such little energy showing nothing can be expected until at least noon on tuesday. buoys may fire pop off late tonight while most are asleep. in any case any swell that does fill in will not be much overhead and is expected to reach 3ft at maximum. the south-southest swell may be of interest to some out there as this angle is rare and certain spots may break on wierd directions like this
Posted by megaprober at 07:21 PM | Comments (0)
July 10, 2005
work week
7/11
MONDAY...surf on the way down for the start of the week. all resources are showing a decrease in energy which is consistent with the models. the current south will slowly fade away on monday and then a new south-southeast swelll will fill in immediately on its heels alte in the day tomorrow. another swell from the south will begin to fill in as well late night moday into tuesday. both these swells will be 3 feet max on the sets so surf will be below advisary levels. in a nutshell the aouth pacific has been very active over the last weeks and low energylong period ground swell of near head high levels ashould stick arounf for the majority of the work week. winds will be typical for this time of the year with trades cranking 10-25mph.
same story as joe. our new spot was super fun yesturday and probably would have been more fun today except that the spot can handle a crowd od maybe three. got two good ones at maile's, but sitting inside the pack as a target for longboarders doesn't suit my fancy. tried minefields, but was unseccessful due to lack of waves. still it was fun to get out there at the crack.
speaking of which...i was amazed at all the activity going on along the beach side of the road at the 5am hour. i mean it was hussle and bussle. people hanging around walking in circles, arms waving to and fro and jabber-jawing comments at cars going by. in the darkness you could almost see the wide open eyes peering out at you through the bushes. funny once that sun comes up everything is vanished. one must dread the milky coming of the day as morrison put it.
Posted by megaprober at 05:56 PM | Comments (0)
July 09, 2005
sunday swell to continue
SUNDAY...plenty of swell left for the morning as the buoys are holding steady with plenty of energy registering on all 3 southern buoys. the call is for solid 3-4ft surf in the morning with a slight drop throughout the day. winds will be trades as usual. need to sleep as i'm dawning tomorrow. more swells on the way...tune in suday night for the details.
surfed a westside break that's under double secret probation. barrelling right along point that has plenty of boils to help your takeoff. going to try and score tomorrow as the swell may hold.
Posted by megaprober at 10:51 PM | Comments (0)
July 07, 2005
the swells are out there?!!
7/8
FRIDAY...on this thursday night the eve before two swell episodes arrive locally the anticipation is high. all are talking and no one is balking. jutecast is on the scene and here's the low down. as od 2000hrs the south buoys are all showinf very little energy. being fool proof i checked buoy 4 to see if something was slipping by to the east...nada. so the interpetation is this. the swell should arrive during the wee-hours of the morning at the southern buoys. given out travel time of 6-8hrs waves should begin filling in during the afternoon friday and into saturday. waves may reach headhigh or slightly larger at select spots. this swell will be replaced by another more powerful swell that is currently lurking under the equatorial buoy. the presence picked up by buoy 28 is slightly stronger than the swell that is due to arrive tomorrow so i'm calling the saturday swell to be a notch bigger with local style 4ft sets. winds cranking for the day
Posted by megaprober at 09:09 PM | Comments (0)
July 06, 2005
7/7
7/7
THURSDAY...current swell to hold for the day with possible forerunners of new swell later in the day. buoy heights and energy are showing long period low energy ground swell typical for this time of the year. with model heights forecasting 1 meter ground swell for the next 24hrs, the call is for constant 3ft swell for the day tomorrow. the swell is the product of typical new zealand swells that originate off the eastern coast of new zealand and result in low frequnecy ground swells. this is the general pattern for our summertime south swells. on the horizon however is a slightly larger swell that may show up tomorrow evening with forerunners in the 17-20 second energy band. these scouts often move ahead of the pack due to their larger wave periods resulting in faster travel speeds. tomorrow afternoon may see infrequent sets in the 3-4ft range, but the main swell won't begin filling in until frday afternoon. winds will be strong trades again.
Posted by megaprober at 10:31 PM | Comments (0)
July 05, 2005
wednesday
7/6
WEDNESDAY...current south swell will hold in the head high range for the day. buoy reports and WWlll models are showing all similar energy as today. surf is thought ti generally follow that pattern. the big change though will be that the winds are looking to increase a notch as a large high pressure moves by north of the islands the pressure gradients increase thus resulting in stronger winds. these winds will crank for the remainder of the week. buoy 28 is showing significant energy at last glance (2215hrs) and this is interpeted as the arrival of the next swell on cue for thursday into friday. the energy that's showing tells me that this next swell will be a 3-4ft local scale swell (6-8ft faces). as the swell progresses and reaches buoy 2 a better guess can be made. the call for tomorrow windy 2-3ft surf with smaller waves later in the day as the tide fills in. new swell on the horizon.
Posted by megaprober at 10:26 PM | Comments (0)
July 04, 2005
tuesday
7/6
TUESDAY...steady supply of 3ft south swell for the week. the WWlll charts are forecasting an ongoing supply of swell from 195deg. the current swell should hold about the same for tomorrow with surf around the 2-3ft range. surf spots will vary with tides as do most south shore spots. winds are going to be normal trades with speeds increasing throughout the week. wish there was more to report, but with the lack of waves or small south swells there's not much of interest.
Posted by megaprober at 08:06 PM | Comments (0)
July 03, 2005
july 4th
7/3
MONDAY...july 4th will be met with small waves along south facing shorelines. small energy has registered on the south facing buoys over the course of the day. the kewalo wave platform also noted a jump in waveheights during the course of the day. as with most south swells from remote sources history has told us that they are usually a day late and a dollar short. my guess id that there will be head high surf at select spots that like a touch of west in them. the tides will also be of importance as they can make or break certain spots. that work is up to you. so the call is for small, but not flat conditions with our typical trades along for the ride.
Posted by megaprober at 11:41 PM | Comments (0)
July 01, 2005
4th of july weekend
7/2
SATURDAY...small waves once again although a new south swell is due to start creeeping under buoy 2. this new swell will be slow on the arrival, but will stick around for the better part of the weekend into next week. the WWlll charts are showing initial arrival to be in the wee hours of the morning with waveheigts starting out small with long periods. taking into account the travel time of nearly 6hrs it's a pretty good bet that not much will be seen tomorrow. the call is for 1-2ft surf at best with 2 footers being more common in the afternoon along southern shores. winds will be the same ole' same ole'.
Posted by megaprober at 06:32 PM | Comments (0)