August 21, 2005
8/21
MONDAY...surf will bump up a notch along southern shores as a new south-southwest swell fills in during the day. although the swell is small it should provide some surf in the 1-3ft range meaning head high sets at the most righteous of locations. the swell was generated over a week ago from a fast moving storm travelling west to east across the deep south pacific. the swell will therefore start out in the 210deg direction and quickly move across the compass to 190deg and remain so for the remainder of the episode. as this system moved quickly across the south pacific it will last only 72hrs or so and then fade rather quickly. winds will trades in the 5-15mph range so convective winds are a reality.
8 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
small surf will still rule in hawaii as the last full week of summer comes to an end. for me the august is summer and september is fall even though the 23rd is the actual day of transition in september. in any case summer time conditions will prevail andoffer no relief and no real surf for yet another week. the good news is that regardless of how small the surf is this week it will be larger than last week this much i promise. the first of two south swell episodes will fill in tonight (8/21) and hang around for the next two days providing hawaii with surf in the chest to head high range at best. the storm associated with this swell was moving very fast across the deep south pacific and was only in our swell window for about 30-36hrs. so this condition will account for two ingredients, one the swell angle will rotate from 210-190deg and two the swell will fade rather quickly on the third day.
on northern shores a small low pressure system has set up camp just north of the islands...actually about 800nm north of the islands. the system was small, weak, and short-lived, but with 20-30mph winds aimed at hawaii so close a small fetch was able to get established and we can look foreward to a smll north swell that may get 3ft max at places like rockies or sunset point. with such a small system the swell will generally resemble windswell with the short periods and weak power, but hey its better than no waves at all. expect the swell to come in on tuesday and be gone by thursday.
finally southern shores will see another swell arriving from 180deg on friday and remain with us for the weekend. surf will be in the 1-3ft range and peak most likely on saturday. for now it is a bit premature to speculate the real details for this episode due to it being 5 days out. when the swell pings the equatorial buoy and finally buoy 2 much more detail will be revieled. one thing is for sure that with this being the first swell in weeks falling on the weekend expect lots of your buddies out in the lineup with you.
Posted by megaprober at August 21, 2005 08:54 PM