August 31, 2005
9/1
THURSDAY...surf will be on the rise for the first day of september. the forerunners of the new swell were eye witnessed by yours truly this afternoon. the call was pretty much what i wrote yesturday (for once). small 1-2ft surf consistently breaking at most spots and then every half hour a solid 4ft bomb set would push through and wipe the debris out of the line-up. if those sets get more frequent there could be a decent swell to surf for tomorrow. at this point it is difficult to make a call with the buoys out of comission. however, i got it correct for this afternoon so i'll shot the moon and make judgement for manana. the call is for the swell to fill in over night with the larger sets becoming more frequent. surf should be solid 3ft with 4ft sets and possible 5ft bombs at select reefs. wind will be light trades and for those that want to score make sure you go out in the late afternoon as that's when everybody else will be there too to watch you rip.
Posted by megaprober at 08:55 PM | Comments (0)
August 30, 2005
8/31
WEDNESDAY...expect conditions to change during the course of the last day of august. surf will start out small and weak and then with the arrival of a new south swell surf will start to build later in the afternoon. the main swath od the swell will not hit until late in the night or early in the morning. however, it is possible that the larger longer period waves or forerunners will start to affect southern shores in the afternoon with sets in the 2-4ft range at select spots that are favorable to refraction. as the evening approaches surf should increase in consistentcy and size. take into mind this is all speculative because our primary resources that being the buoys are out of commision so the timing of the episode is merely based on older information. winds will start to blow trades overnight tonight and should greet morning surfers in the AM.
Posted by megaprober at 06:27 PM | Comments (0)
8/30
TUESDAY...surf to bottom out on southern shores tomorrow. waves will diminish to the 1-2ft range with lingering energy and infrequent sets before a series of new southerly swells begin to fill in. not really mush to say except small surf with minimal winds and afternoon seabreezes. wednesday's report will be a bit more interesting. buoya are out of commision by (i'm guessing ?) hurricane katrina.
Posted by megaprober at 12:54 AM | Comments (0)
August 28, 2005
MONDAY...small but surfable conditions in the islands. northern shores will see a small pulse in the 2ft range from a small weak low pressure system north of the islands 1000nm out. winds of 30mph maximum will send a small swell in the 7-9sec energy band that has arrived locally producing surf in the 1-2ft range with the ocassional 3 footer. surf along southern shores will continue with chest high surf from a persistent groundswell that affected the islands over he weekend. look for southern shores to drop slightly over the next few days, but never going totally flat. winds will be light and variable for the day creating optimum conditions for the AM with smooth and glassy condition for some serious aggressive south shore charging.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
surf is on the way for southern shores after a month long hiatus that seemed much longer. the south pacific has been exceptionally active over the last week or so. the first in a series of at least three swells arrived over the weekend to the hords of new people that have decided that surfing is their thing. the next swell in the trilogy currently just finished production in the deep southwest pacific. a massive storm formed just southwest of new zealand and moved west to east from the tasman past new zealand into the south pacific southeast of new zealand. as it moved along its course it generated swell all the way from the tasman sea across to the south pacific. maximum seas were deveoped just south of new zealand with open ocean heights reaching 36ft. during its life in the tasman sea the storm sent a swell in the direction of hawaii. as the swell was moving through the tasman sea an eddie pinched off from the mother system and winds blew over the already developed seas adding significant energy to the swell. for hawaii this is good news as the surf will have to negotiate many islands. once the system passed new zealand it intensified and maximum strength was reached with surf generated and aimed primarily at mexico. because the seas reached such large swell heights and wave energy was able to reach extreme periods of 18sec or more, the loss of energy form angular dispersion will be minimized. this is good news for hawaii as these waves will make it to our shorelines with some punch left to them.
look for surf to start arriving locally on wednesday afternoon with surf building into the 2-3ft range with larger sets popping up form nowhere. as mentioned the swell will arrive from two directions as new zealand cut off the supply of surf for a short time. surf will arrive from 210deg as well as 200-205deg. surf arriving from the tasman sea episode will be difficult to guage as there are many islands blocking the way so i'll give moderate surf estimates from this source while the surf generated after passing new zealand should be significantly larger as there was little blockage and the waves were generally larger. by thursday the swell should fill in with surf in the 2-4ft range with 5ft bombs possible.
currently as of this writing there is a swell being generated just south of tahiti that may arrive simultaneously with the swell mentioned above. the source 800nm south-southeast of tahiti. surf may arrive out 165deg on thusday with sets in the 3ft range.
looking ahead there is another possible source of surf for hawaii south-southest of new zealand. this swell would likely arrive somewhere around next wednesday next week. northern shores looking dormant for the forecast period.
Posted by megaprober at 09:57 PM | Comments (0)
August 25, 2005
8/26
FRIDAY...surf small for the most part around the island. a small south swell seems to be trying to fill in with some long period energy registering on the southern buoys and the kewalo platform. the north swell has pretty much run its course and will require any need for a forecast. i did see some shots of the swell that made me want to stop surfing with the massive pack festering at lanis. surf along town shorelines will possibly boost slightly and there may even be some head high sets at select locations. trades are in their last phase and will pretty much give way to convective winds on the larger islands.
5 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 09:12 PM | Comments (0)
August 24, 2005
8/25
THURSDAY...north swell on the way out and a new small south swell to start arriving later in the day tomorrow. looking at all the data and drawing conclusions as one does i'm a bit skeptical on the arrival of the new south swell predicted to start affecting our southern shores. the buoys are not showing anything in the way of long period swell which generally registers at the beginning of any south swell episode. to further complicate matters our primary indicator and informant for these types of activities, buoy 28, has gone MIA. so the fine details of south swell timing is now in the dark. my guess is that it will begin toshow on the southern buoys by morning and begin showing on local shorelines in the afternoon or evening. winds are looking to go MIA as well due to the formation of a small low pressure system north of the islands. expect glassy conditions in the AM for the next couple of days and seabreezes in the afternoons.
Posted by megaprober at 11:58 PM | Comments (0)
August 23, 2005
8/24
WEDNESDAY...surf will be 2-3ft on northern shores out of the north-northeast. the current swell arrived this morning with surf building to the solid 3ft range at spots that enjoy northerly swells. surf will contunue to build slightly larger with some possible overhead sets tomorrow morning. with most swells the larger waves are generally earlier rather than later so i'll time the peak of this swell late tonight or early in the AM. because the storm associated with this episode was very close (800nm) there is the possibility that the swell is arriving as it was made, meaning there was little time for the swell to groom itself out and allow waves to seperate into their appropriate energy bands. translation = the meat of the swell may be around for the day tomorrow and waves may show fluctuation in size and frequency depending on the storm's life-cycle. anyway waves are on the menu for the day. southern shores will drop slightly back to the 1-2ft range and have a general feel of "it's on its way out". winds trades...wow imagine that!
6 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 09:20 PM | Comments (0)
August 22, 2005
8/23
8/23
TUESDAY...surf will start to build on northern shores from a small swell due to arrive later in the day. waves will resemble those found in windswells with the short periods and low refraction. surf will start to build in the afternoon with sets in the chest high range by dark. southern shores will see waves continue to build to the head high range throughout the day and remain so for the day wednesday. winds will remain light to mederate trades for the day.
7 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 07:13 PM | Comments (0)
August 21, 2005
8/21
MONDAY...surf will bump up a notch along southern shores as a new south-southwest swell fills in during the day. although the swell is small it should provide some surf in the 1-3ft range meaning head high sets at the most righteous of locations. the swell was generated over a week ago from a fast moving storm travelling west to east across the deep south pacific. the swell will therefore start out in the 210deg direction and quickly move across the compass to 190deg and remain so for the remainder of the episode. as this system moved quickly across the south pacific it will last only 72hrs or so and then fade rather quickly. winds will trades in the 5-15mph range so convective winds are a reality.
8 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
small surf will still rule in hawaii as the last full week of summer comes to an end. for me the august is summer and september is fall even though the 23rd is the actual day of transition in september. in any case summer time conditions will prevail andoffer no relief and no real surf for yet another week. the good news is that regardless of how small the surf is this week it will be larger than last week this much i promise. the first of two south swell episodes will fill in tonight (8/21) and hang around for the next two days providing hawaii with surf in the chest to head high range at best. the storm associated with this swell was moving very fast across the deep south pacific and was only in our swell window for about 30-36hrs. so this condition will account for two ingredients, one the swell angle will rotate from 210-190deg and two the swell will fade rather quickly on the third day.
on northern shores a small low pressure system has set up camp just north of the islands...actually about 800nm north of the islands. the system was small, weak, and short-lived, but with 20-30mph winds aimed at hawaii so close a small fetch was able to get established and we can look foreward to a smll north swell that may get 3ft max at places like rockies or sunset point. with such a small system the swell will generally resemble windswell with the short periods and weak power, but hey its better than no waves at all. expect the swell to come in on tuesday and be gone by thursday.
finally southern shores will see another swell arriving from 180deg on friday and remain with us for the weekend. surf will be in the 1-3ft range and peak most likely on saturday. for now it is a bit premature to speculate the real details for this episode due to it being 5 days out. when the swell pings the equatorial buoy and finally buoy 2 much more detail will be revieled. one thing is for sure that with this being the first swell in weeks falling on the weekend expect lots of your buddies out in the lineup with you.
Posted by megaprober at 08:54 PM | Comments (0)
8/21
MONDAY...surf will bump up a notch along southern shores as a new south-southwest swell fills in during the day. although the swell is small it should provide some surf in the 1-3ft range meaning head high sets at the most righteous of locations. the swell was generated over a week ago from a fast moving storm travelling west to east across the deep south pacific. the swell will therefore start out in the 210deg direction and quickly move across the compass to 190deg and remain so for the remainder of the episode. as this system moved quickly across the south pacific it will last only 72hrs or so and then fade rather quickly. winds will trades in the 5-15mph range so convective winds are a reality.
8 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
small surf will still rule in hawaii as the last full week of summer comes to an end. for me the august is summer and september is fall even though the 23rd is the actual day of transition in september. in any case summer time conditions will prevail andoffer no relief and no real surf for yet another week. the good news is that regardless of how small the surf is this week it will be larger than last week this much i promise. the first of two south swell episodes will fill in tonight (8/21) and hang around for the next two days providing hawaii with surf in the chest to head high range at best. the storm associated with this swell was moving very fast across the deep south pacific and was only in our swell window for about 30-36hrs. so this condition will account for two ingredients, one the swell angle will rotate from 210-190deg and two the swell will fade rather quickly on the third day.
on northern shores a small low pressure system has set up camp just north of the islands...actually about 800nm north of the islands. the system was small, weak, and short-lived, but with 20-30mph winds aimed at hawaii so close a small fetch was able to get established and we can look foreward to a smll north swell that may get 3ft max at places like rockies or sunset point. with such a small system the swell will generally resemble windswell with the short periods and weak power, but hey its better than no waves at all. expect the swell to come in on tuesday and be gone by thursday.
finally southern shores will see another swell arriving from 180deg on friday and remain with us for the weekend. surf will be in the 1-3ft range and peak most likely on saturday. for now it is a bit premature to speculate the real details for this episode due to it being 5 days out. when the swell pings the equatorial buoy and finally buoy 2 much more detail will be revieled. one thing is for sure that with this being the first swell in weeks falling on the weekend expect lots of your buddies out in the lineup with you.
Posted by megaprober at 08:54 PM | Comments (0)
8/21
SUNDAY...small surf on windward shores as the trade swell continues to decline over the next few days fianlly to bottom out next to nil. small south swell to fill in tomorrow in the 1-2ft range with possible soft head high at select locations. the kewalo platform is picking up low energy long period swell in the 18sec band out if 182deg. this is probably a passing south swell episide produced early last week with minimal energy to make it to hawaii. surf will be small at most location and winds will be easterly for the day.
9 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 01:27 AM | Comments (0)
August 19, 2005
8/20
SATURDAY...once again small surf for the day as no real change is in the forecast. buoys are all showing small wind swell so there should be no reason to thinh that there will be any increase in wave activity from what we've seen today. the call is for surf in the 1-2ft range max on southern and eastern shores. all other shores flat to 1.
10 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 08:12 PM | Comments (0)
FRIDAY...small surf once again in paradise as virtually no ground swell exists and trade winds are not strong enough locally to provide much relief. the synopsis for now is that the remanants of fernanda will pass to the south with the only concearn being some rain for the big island. there will be no real swell associated with fernanda as the waves travelled far ahead of the storm and would have already come and gone by now. look for surf in the 1-occ 2ft range on southern shores and weak 1-2ft surf along eastern shores. winds will be typical trades.
11 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
no real surf from tropical storm fernanda for hawaii, but models are showing some much larger more poweful tropical systems forming off of southern mexico. conditions in the east pacific are quicky turning optimum for tropical activity. much further to the north in the pacific there are some small to tiny surf potentials that may or may not send some head high waves to the north shore later this weekend or more likely next week. downunder there is plenty of activity brewing with strong storm systems forming with fetches more favorable to hawaii later next week. looking closer to now there may be a new swell arriving over the next few days form a system last week that will give southern shore a little bump to the shoulder high range and dare i say head high set at the most chosen of locations.
Posted by megaprober at 12:31 AM | Comments (0)
August 17, 2005
THURSDAY...small surf island wide again with windward shores topping the list with waves on the 1-2ft range with possible soft lazy 3 footer here and there. other shores will be flat-1 with possible waist high on southern shores. winds will be trades. wish there was something to report because it is getting harder to change the words of the same message over and over.
12 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 10:27 PM | Comments (0)
August 16, 2005
8/17
WEDNESDAY...more of the same with small surf along southern shores from that large swell that passed on its way to california. southern shores will see surf out of the south-southeast with sets in the shoulder high range at best. sets will be infrequent due to the main swath of energy passing far to the east. windward shores will see small windswell that will be barely ridable at most locations. winds will continue to blow from the east-northeast as they have been for the last few months.
13 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 09:56 PM | Comments (0)
August 15, 2005
8/15
NEXT DAY UPDATE
TUESDAY...meager surf to continue with waist high on southern shores and waist high chop on windwrd shores. buoys are all showing typical tradewind swell with 6ft waveheights and wave periods of 6-8sec. with the trades continually blowing 10-20mph both upstream and locally, this is expected and will continue throught the forecast period of the next 5 days. there are other sources of energy. one being the tropical east pacific with tropical storms greg and fernanda both of which had short bursts of energy then fizzled. nothing expected tomorrow from these storms, however they may send some scraps later in the week from the east-southeast. tomorrow expect similar conditions as today 1-2ft in town and at the head with off-shore on town and classic head conditions with side shore chop.
14 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
as mentioned earlier there isn't much in the way of storm systems on the immediate horizon. the most likely source of energy will arrive from the south-southwest over the weekend with a possible swell being generated in the tasman sea. these swells are often blocked by the many erratic islands of the south pacific so odds are against anything larger than head high. another possible source is a week storm in the northwest pacific later in the week. this storm has the characteristics of a typical winter storm, but like mini me it is 1/8th the size. weak storms in the northwest pacific don't do much for hawaii as the waves on the north shore need to be large before anything really starts to break. lastly, the tropics are really coming alive and the models are showing a powerful tropical storm forming off of central america, but as i've said it before and i'll say it again the tropics are very difficult for wave models to make sense of. i practice my right to "believe it when i see it" for tropicl storm swells.
Posted by megaprober at 10:50 PM | Comments (0)
August 11, 2005
8/12
FRIDAY...small waves island wide once again as the lack of swell continues. waves will be flat to 1ft on most shores, however there is some energy registering in the 13-15sec bands on the buoys. with buoy 1, 2,3, and the waimea buoy all showing this energy my guess is that this is an episode caused by the last major typhoon in the west pacific. the waimea buoy and buoy 1 are showing the direction of the swell to be 280-300deg which is the swell window for the typoons when they are generally at their strongest. i expect that waves along shorelines exposed to this swell will see infrequent sets in the head high range tomorrow. windward shores and shouthern shores wil see small waves in the knee to chest high range. winds will blow out of the east-northeast.
20 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
surf will continue to be small, weak and gutless for the next 5 days. there is some relief in site however. downunder a semi-powerful storm looks to form east of new zealand in an opportune window for hawaii. the storm looks to form late sunday and continue cranking until sometime on wednesday. with winds in excess of 40+mph and a fairly good fetch of around 600nm this could translate into waves along southern shores late next weekend. as with models that far in advance i'll know more when the next forecast comes out on friday or saturday. the tropics of the east pacific are looking to start popping off in the models as well with at least two storms firing up over the next 7 days. with hurricanes i rarely believe the models so take this with a grain of salt. finally the north pacific lookd to form a gyre in far northwestern pacific hugging the aleutian islands later this weekend . with a sizable fetch aimed at hawaii and winds of near 30mph our first north swellcould roll in next week. it won't be much, but anything will do at this point.
Posted by megaprober at 10:05 PM | Comments (1)
August 10, 2005
8/11
THURSDAY...surf around the islands has brought it up a notch with unparalleled flatness on all shores of hawaii. current buoy reports are showing me very little in the way of energy with all buoys registering in the 8sec bands or less. locally the waimea and kailua buoys are showing weak windswekk in the 5-6sec bands which translates to chop. tomorrow surf will be waist to knee on the eastside which should top the list. other shores that are more accustomed to ground swelll will be flat to 1ft as there is no ground swell near the islands.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
surf will continue to be small, weak and gutless for the next 5 days. there is some relief in site however. downunder a semi-powerful storm looks to form east of new zealand in an opportune window for hawaii. the storm looks to form late sunday and continue cranking until sometime on wednesday. with winds in excess of 40+mph and a fairly good fetch of around 600nm this could translate into waves along southern shores late next weekend. as with models that far in advance i'll know more when the next forecast comes out on friday or saturday. the tropics of the east pacific are looking to start popping off in the models as well with at least two storms firing up over the next 7 days. with hurricanes i rarely believe the models so take this with a grain of salt. finally the north pacific lookd to form a gyre in far northwestern pacific hugging the aleutian islands later this weekend . with a sizable fetch aimed at hawaii and winds of near 30mph our first north swellcould roll in next week. it won't be much, but anything will do at this point.
Posted by megaprober at 11:10 PM | Comments (0)
August 08, 2005
8/9
TUESDAY...will see a similer pattern for surf conditions just like today. all buoys are showing nothing but windswell activity in the 7-9sec range with the direction staying between 85-100deg. basically this will translate into small surf along the eastern shorelines with surf staying in the 2ft range with soft 3 footers at select spots...wherever they are. all other shores will see surf conditions in the flat-1ft range unless the windswell finds its way there. winds are are a bit funky with the remanants of tropical depression 1-C southwest of the islands tonight so my guess is that winds will turn off and on during the night and it will really be a roll of the dice if they turn off in the morning.
22 days left until september 1st.
Posted by megaprober at 09:27 PM | Comments (0)
August 07, 2005
8/7
MONDAY...surf will generally be produced from windswell blowing both locally and upstream of the islands. with the approach of the remanants of tropical depression 1-C the trades may back off briefly for the tomorrow. although this could just as easily not happen as the tropical wave seems to have completely dissapated after encountering the big island and dropping 3-5in of rain on the windward side. as of this writing the winds are noisily blowing outside so i'm 50/50 on this call. in any case expect smaller windswell on the eastern shores. if you find a tree footer on the windward side you've done good. with the smaller wave periods expect less wrap on northern and southern shores.
23 days left until september 1st.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
surf will generally be produced from windswell blowing both locally and upstream of the islands. as the dominant weather feature known as the east pacific high weakens and moves east due to an approaching low pressure in the northeast pacific. as the low pressure system erodes the north pacific high upstream trade winds will back down a bit and thus result in lesser swell. the north pacific is in full summer time mode with any storm systems hanging high up in the latitudes above the aleutian islands so no surf from this area for at least five days. the deep south is seeing some activity, however, the one potential area of wave generation is too far east in the south pacific and the swell will be better aimed at south america. even due to angular dispersion i don't see anything making its way to hawaii from downunder. the tropics of the east pacific seem to be trying to come alive and some weather models are showing blips of wave activity in the east pacific. as a rule of thumb when it comes to hurricanes and weather models the models always change from day to day.
Posted by megaprober at 11:10 PM | Comments (0)
August 05, 2005
8/6
SATURDAY...the weekend will start and end with a carbon copy of what we saw friday so if your into windswell with sets near the headhigh range you'll be stoked. tropical depression 1-C has fizzled so don't expect much from that.
Posted by megaprober at 10:43 PM | Comments (0)
August 04, 2005
8/5
FRIDAY...strong and gusty trades will continue to provide sufficient tradewind swell to eastern shores. winds clocking to 25+mph will stay with us throughout the day and keep solid easterly swell in the 2-3 occ 4ft range with larger sets. also the waimea buoy is picking up some north-nortwest energy that may turn out to be small waves along the north shore for tomorrow. the swell source was weak and aimed more north and east of hawaii so that explains the wide spectrum of swell registering on the waimea buoy. some east swell wrap will also be found along select north facing reefs so it's a good bet the north shore may have some ridable surf.
Posted by megaprober at 09:54 PM | Comments (0)
August 03, 2005
8/4
THURSDAY...surf expected to be small once again along southern shores. waves in the thigh high range at the largest spots may be found in small abundance. northern shores will totally flat and the tradewind swell will hold strong in the 3-4ft range with possible larger sets at reefs that take direct hits. the swell as seen from the buoys looks due straight east so chances are better that wrap will find its way to the southern shores rather than the northern shores. winds will hang strong at 15-25mph and keep local beaches sandblast worthy. a tropical storm named 1C at this point has formed 800nm southeast of the big island. if it reaches tropical storm stregth the it will be named ioke.
Posted by megaprober at 11:32 PM | Comments (0)
August 02, 2005
august
SUMMARY...strong and gusty winds for the rest of the week. tradewind swell will most likely top sirf heights for the rest of the week. the summer flat spell may come to an apex late this week and waves may rebound early next week.
WEDNESDAY...surf will continue to be largest along the eastern shores as the strong and gusty trades keep a constant source of windswell. tomorrow will see virtually no groundswell along northern or southern shores. ther only legitamate source of waves will be from the easterly swell and with the larger waves being generated surf may wrap into select spots along the both the northern and southern shores. keep in mind that the wind will be there too and side chop will accompany the small surf trying to break at select spots.
28 days left until september 1st.
looking ahead large and powerful storms are looking to start moving around in the deep south near the tasman sea. also a possible source of waves may form near frech polynesia later in the week or into the weekend. more on this as it develops. finally the tropics east of hawaii are looking more and more active so they should be watched as they may send in some additional easterly swell. as they are extremely unpredictable updates are always welcome...i'll be on call!!!
Posted by megaprober at 09:42 PM | Comments (0)