September 30, 2005
10/1
SATURDAY...surf is looking stormy and unorganized as our local weather is affected by the tropical disturbance in our area. a small northwesterly pulse is supposed to sneak in or sometime today, however, looking at the data from the buoys i find no such evidence of waves coming out of the north. i may be wrong and the northwest swell may be masked by the powerful east swell associated with kenneth. in any case 1-3ft surf along northern shores is the call with two directions providing waves. easterly wrap and northwesterly ground swell will be the messengers and certain reefs may catch waves while others do not. easterly shores will start to drop somewhat and south shores will have some head high waves at spots that pick up south and easterly mix. should be a good day for surfing as many do not prefer to surf in the rain as they don't want to get wet.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
current surf situation is stormy and choppy from conditions generated by tropical storm and nore tropical trough kenneth. easterly shores are maxing with open ocean swell near the 10ft mark. because of the local wave genration and short period waves surf is reaching about 10ft on the face when the breakers spill. the translation is that windward shore are in the 5ft range locally.
tomorrow will see the passage of kenneth and possible the start of some drying out and the clearing of rainy weater. my guess is that this system is moving slightly faster that the national weather service is predicting. surf along easterly shores will begin to drop during the day on saturday and continue the decline into sunday with surf staying near 3ft(6ft on the face).
deep down below a storm started brewing on the 27th and rapidly intesified and became a full blown gale by the 28th. the system formed in a very favorable window in regards to swell making their way to hawaii. the system began off the southest coast of new zealnd's south island and then tracked northeastward over its own fetch, basically it moved over the swell trains it had created. this is the best case scenerio for hawaii because when this occurs the winds act on already roughened seas and this in turn allows the winds to grab the ocean with more ease. again in simple terms the winds not only keep the swell energized, but they also add significant energy to the swells. the storm moved northest over the roughened seas forover 48hrs and the result was open ocean surf heights of 40ft over a broad section of nearly 1000nm or more. this system is in many regards very similar to the storm that created the large south swell two weeks ago only this one is slightly weaker. surf should begin to arrive in the afternoon tuesday with large sets seeming as if they are coming out of nowhere as the swell 's forerunners clear the path. by wednesday surf should be 4-6ft solid and maxing sometime during the day.
north shores are having a difficult time starting the engines as storms in the north pacific are not getting very organized. two small swell episodes are going to arrive during the forecast period. a small swell will arrive tonight (friday) and provide head high surf for saturday and then drop by sunday. another swell due to arrive on wednesday will be similar in size and be greatly overshadowed by the much larger south swell arriving sumultaneously.
Posted by megaprober at September 30, 2005 06:20 PM