September 30, 2005
10/1
SATURDAY...surf is looking stormy and unorganized as our local weather is affected by the tropical disturbance in our area. a small northwesterly pulse is supposed to sneak in or sometime today, however, looking at the data from the buoys i find no such evidence of waves coming out of the north. i may be wrong and the northwest swell may be masked by the powerful east swell associated with kenneth. in any case 1-3ft surf along northern shores is the call with two directions providing waves. easterly wrap and northwesterly ground swell will be the messengers and certain reefs may catch waves while others do not. easterly shores will start to drop somewhat and south shores will have some head high waves at spots that pick up south and easterly mix. should be a good day for surfing as many do not prefer to surf in the rain as they don't want to get wet.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
current surf situation is stormy and choppy from conditions generated by tropical storm and nore tropical trough kenneth. easterly shores are maxing with open ocean swell near the 10ft mark. because of the local wave genration and short period waves surf is reaching about 10ft on the face when the breakers spill. the translation is that windward shore are in the 5ft range locally.
tomorrow will see the passage of kenneth and possible the start of some drying out and the clearing of rainy weater. my guess is that this system is moving slightly faster that the national weather service is predicting. surf along easterly shores will begin to drop during the day on saturday and continue the decline into sunday with surf staying near 3ft(6ft on the face).
deep down below a storm started brewing on the 27th and rapidly intesified and became a full blown gale by the 28th. the system formed in a very favorable window in regards to swell making their way to hawaii. the system began off the southest coast of new zealnd's south island and then tracked northeastward over its own fetch, basically it moved over the swell trains it had created. this is the best case scenerio for hawaii because when this occurs the winds act on already roughened seas and this in turn allows the winds to grab the ocean with more ease. again in simple terms the winds not only keep the swell energized, but they also add significant energy to the swells. the storm moved northest over the roughened seas forover 48hrs and the result was open ocean surf heights of 40ft over a broad section of nearly 1000nm or more. this system is in many regards very similar to the storm that created the large south swell two weeks ago only this one is slightly weaker. surf should begin to arrive in the afternoon tuesday with large sets seeming as if they are coming out of nowhere as the swell 's forerunners clear the path. by wednesday surf should be 4-6ft solid and maxing sometime during the day.
north shores are having a difficult time starting the engines as storms in the north pacific are not getting very organized. two small swell episodes are going to arrive during the forecast period. a small swell will arrive tonight (friday) and provide head high surf for saturday and then drop by sunday. another swell due to arrive on wednesday will be similar in size and be greatly overshadowed by the much larger south swell arriving sumultaneously.
Posted by megaprober at 06:20 PM | Comments (0)
September 28, 2005
9/29
THURSDAY...surf to trend down from today on both the northern and southern shores. the small bump along the north shore will have passed by tomorrow and anything left behind will be two foot at most and lacerated with wind chop. southern shores may fare slightly better as most swells that do make the journey across the pacific to hawaii genrally have a few days of swell with 'em. expect 1-3ft surf along southern shores with some sets nearing head high at the most rightous of spots. buoys are sentrys are reporting mostly windswell around the parimeter of the islands, but some longer period groundswell is getting in as indicated from the kewalo platform.
Posted by megaprober at 09:05 PM | Comments (0)
September 27, 2005
9/28
WEDNESDAY...surf will generally be what you'd expect for this time of the year. a small northwesterly swell will start to show tonight and stay around producing head high surf at best at the standout spots. as with most swells out of the north this time of the year this swell will come and go quickly and by the afternoon tomorrow should have done its thing. surf along the southern shores will be near head high at the usual spots with a combo of trade and southerly energy. the current south swell will hang around and keep surf near 2ft for the remainder of the week. trades are back with a vengence and look to be there tomorrow cranking in the 15-25mph range.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
the upcoming end of the week is filled with weak and wannabe swells. the small northerly pulses tonight and friday respectably will be mere small bumps that will keep only the most persistent of spots from being flat. the storm track in the north pacific has yet to really come south out of the bearing sea and the aleutian island chain. as the jetstream continues to hover way to the north storms in the associated area insufficiant to cover the neccessary water to maintain a good fetch to produce anything more than weak swells with small intermittent waves. the swell due to arrive friday will sweep in out of 345deg and come from a system that is currently aiming to the east of the island chain hence we are goig to see only scraps from this one as the main swath misses hawaii to the east.
the southern shores are keeping the faith as small yet persistent southerly juice continues to plague the south shores. most of the swells arriving from the south was generated over a week ago from a system that formed east of new zealand and gained the minimal strength to provide hawaii with a small swell. this system directed waves toward central america so again hawaii is near th western fringe of the main swell path. later in the forecast period another dose of juice will arrive from an area west of new zealand and due to the unpredicable nature of these swells surf may or may not actually arrive as forecasted. many islands block and shadow us along the way.
in the eastern pacific tropical storms have been flaring up and have progressed as far as the central pacific. because the water just east of hawaii drops a couple of degrees hurricanes can't seem to keep their strength and have thus far dissapated and moved north of hawaii. the latest system kenneth did reach impressive speeds at one point, but now only remanents exist. kenneth looks to move in the direction of hawaii and at present time may even go over the island chain. however, due to it having dissipated the only affects will be a break in the trades and possibly some rain. any swell gnerated from kenneth will be difficult to distinguish as the trade winds have returned and brought the tradewind swells with them.
looking ahead there may be another large southy on the way...possibly nearing warning levels. although not quite as big as the one earlier this month it may hit 6ft at select spots.
Posted by megaprober at 07:39 PM | Comments (0)
September 24, 2005
the claw
SUNDAY...surf looks to trend down on sunday as crowds go up. the current train of thought is that with all the recent unusual swells that have come in the last few days many were caught off guard. these last two swells came and went very elusively and there may be a possibility that if it takes some thought and research the newer mass of surfers would rather do something else. thank god you make the world a better place. surf, as mentioned earlier, should start a quick and painful descent and leave many hopeful chargers on the heels of recent stories of mysto places drydocked. surf will be 1-2ft at the best around the island and the west shore totally flat. winds will be awsome, but waves will be neglegible.
surfed the claw twice today. the morning was well worth the drive as we were rewarded with 3-4ft surf with occasional 5ft bombs. smooth glassy conditions and nice crowd or lack thereof. second session with joe was still fun, but the paddle to navy's i could have done without.
Posted by megaprober at 09:48 PM | Comments (1)
September 22, 2005
9/23
THURSDAY...surf is currently arriving out of the east in the 3-5ft range. this episode was produced from what was hurricane jova. as has now been downgraded to a tropical storm surf production will start to follow a downward trend. models are currently showing jova moving across the compass counter-clockwise eventually to dissipate somewhere north of the islands. swell is showing on all buoys as 3-5ft open ocean swell with 11-12sec periods. as buoy 4 has peaked surf should drop slowly over the next two days. jova has pretty much produced most of the surf it is going to. the main swell producing quadrant is modeled to lose most of its wind speeds and thus produce little in the way of waves. as jova passes to the north winds in our favorable quadrant will likely be to weak to make anything worthwhile so in a nutshell expect 2 more days of surf in the 3-5ft range. winds should be light tomorrow and even seabreezes may develop.
Posted by megaprober at 11:26 PM | Comments (0)
September 19, 2005
9/20
TUESDAY...surf will stay in the 1-3ft range with the odd 4 footer along southern shores, especially those with an easterly exposure. a smaller reinforcement southerly pulse will fill in tomorrow and push waves back to solid head high on the sets. easterly swell in the longer periods is showing up at various buoy and it is likely the result of some of the hurricane activity far to the east of the islands. this swell will only build if anything as the week goes on. with this new swell lurking about expext any surf break that will soak up easterly energy to start breaking in new ways and even boost those spots on northern and soutern shore that catch wrap. winds to keep blowing for the day.
Posted by megaprober at 09:17 PM | Comments (0)
September 18, 2005
rr's
been watching the my resources all day and had a hunch that a swell was going to show up before sundown. tricked some friends into my frame of mind and got them to go along for the ride. after some intense gaming on the play station we made our move and surfed a newly arrived swell out of 314deg. waves got overhead and came through with some punch. surfed rr's and all of us got dragged across the reef. one left with a gash in the hand. still it was better than windblown sui's with 1-3ft surf and bunch of goons.
MONDAY...surf picked up on sunday evening out of 315deg. the surf was generated by a small storm northwest of the islands about three days ago. the storm never really reached a powerful state, however, winds of 30-40mph did generate a swell that rolled in late in the afternoon sunday. waves jumped from weak and gutless windswell out of the northeast to powerful groundswell at select spots featuring shallow reefs and steep rises. the beach breaks seemed to be picking up the swell. look for the swell to peak overnight and begin a quick decline tomorrow and peter out by the end of the day in the 1-2ft range with slightly larger sets.
Posted by megaprober at 09:20 PM | Comments (0)
September 16, 2005
sad to see swell go
SATURDAY...surf will drop further to the 2-4ft range with larger sets possible in the morning. buoy information confirms that the swell is definitely on the way out and once again surf will be back to normal conditions with all the regular spots returning to surfable areas. look for windy surf as the trades will continue to blow near the 30mph mark for one more day and create blustery conditions out in the line-ups
the mega south swell has come and gone for the most part. what a swell. some spots maxed out with near 10ft sets at spots that rarely break and only come alive on the largest and most powerful swells. surf along the southern shores of hawaii rarely ever gets that big and it was a treat to see what the south shore can dish up.
for the next forecast period there really isn't much to report. a small bump may arrive on northern shore from sunday into monday. if the swell does show up surf will arrive out of the northwest at 325deg with moderate swell periods of 12sec. by north shore standard this type of swell will barely excite any of the reefs so for books i'd hardly even call this a swell. surf may reach the head high range max at shallow reefs like rockies.
southern shore may see a small pulse out of 180deg on monday. this swell was created by a system that formed immediately behind the storm associated with the larger south swell earlier this week. surf may reach soulder to head high at some spots that favor this direction. compared to the recent swell this swell will not provide much excitement.
later next week there is the remote possibility that a tropical storm may move into the vicinity. as of this writing it is far too early to say whether or not this will occur. the unpredictable nature of tropical storms tells me i'd be a fool to call a swell from any such source...maybe next forecast period. aloha.
Posted by megaprober at 08:25 PM | Comments (0)
September 14, 2005
9/14
THURSDAY...massive swell moved into local shores today with sets hitting the 8ft mark at some reefs that are not to be mentioned. most reefs were happy with powerful 4-6ft surf maxing out many of the usual town spots. waves were big enough to create some mist along southern shores. the big question is when will it peak. there are two trains of though on this. the first and original forecast was for the swell to build today and peak tomorrow. many models are holding true to this and my opinion is that they are wrong. not to be mean, but the buoy reading are indicating to me that the most powerful part of the swell has or will pass tonight if not already. tides seem to have a profound affest on south swell so whenever the next incomming tide occure look for a boost in swell arrival frequency. the call is for surf to be 4-6ft tomorrow and not nealy as powerful or consistent. this is my guess and i hope i'm wrong, however i feel the swell will seem as if its's dropping tomorrow.
Posted by megaprober at 08:37 PM | Comments (1)
September 13, 2005
9/14
WEDNESDAY...tomorrow will likely go down in the books as one of the larger swells to ever hit the south shore in a long time. the swell has displayed many unusual characteristics not found in south swells. first off it made it to hawaii before it was forecasted which translates into power and faster than normal swell travel speeds. second it registered with much large than usual waveheights and power readings. this means that for once the swell will be larger and more consistent than most southerly swells. that being said look for south facing shores to build to the 4-6ft range with possible 8ft sets at spots that really want it. surf will tickle many outer reefs that are generally dormant for most of the year. waikiki will show off tomorrow with a display of waves that made it famous. waves will be plentiful and powerful and many people will talk of this one for years to come. good luck and surf like there's no tomorrow. keep an eye out for broken longboards washing up in waikiki.
Posted by megaprober at 09:23 PM | Comments (0)
September 12, 2005
9/13
TUESDAY... the north shore awakens from the long summer bummer. surf has been confirmed from a reliable source on the north shore today. surf was building into the 2-4ft range at select spots and may have even gotten larger as the the evening approached. tomorrow will see surf on the north shores peaking near the 5ft range at most spots with possible larger sets. with this being the first swell of the season expect some additional heads in the line-up and also look for discolered water as this will indicated that waves are breaking in that vicinity. surf along southern shores will stay in the 1-3ft range throughout the day. it is unlikely that the new larger south swell will show any scouts by evening as it has just started richtering the equatorial buoy today. wednesday will be another story.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
this is it!!! as my last few reports have revolved around this "supposed to be" south swell i have been biting the nails as to whether or not it would actually happen. i rarely get to amped about south shore surf, but this one if it worked out as planned, would be worthy of a few raised eyebrows. most south swells as a rule always find a way to look great on paper, but the actual packege, when delivered, is usually much smaller, weaker, and nothing like its advertisement. this one however actually got better as the system unfolded. the angle got better and the waves got bigger....thank you.
our story starts last wednesday when a vigirous low pressure system pushed the envolope of weather physics by reaching a whopping 950mb or so in the center. together with a massive low pressure and some nice moist tropical air and a large cold air masss from the antarcticthe system swirled and built giant waves that some think may have reached 50ft in the open ocean. the system was located east of new zealand which for those mysterious south swells is the ideal swell window. from thursday until saturday the storm produced angry seas that, as luck would have it, were pointed mostly in the direction of hawaii. reports are not in yet from tahit...or are they? ...but many tow teams ran from their homes to track this one down and see what was on the menu. my guess is that some people got the rides of their lives and that waves exceeded the 15ft forecast heights. the video should be out in a few months.
the waves have travelled and today started rocking the equatorial buoy (#28). the swell jumped quickly to 10ft which near the eqator means something....mainly that with the usual lack of windswell the groundswell was the the likely culprit. to confirm this there is a device that measure the power of the swells on the buoys these days. most moderate to large north swells will hit 25-40 on the power scale. really giant ones will shoot the thing through the roof and register 130, but those are rare.. most south swells come in at around 12-20 and those are the larger ones. the current reading under buoy 28 is 35! this is the highest i've ever seen on a south swell in the last few years.
the next few days will go something like this. surf will jump rapidly on wednesday crank in the 3-5ft range with larger sets. by thursday surf should peak with sets hitting the 6ft mark and i'm going to say it there may be 8ft sets at spots that really like large south swells so don't think you can't get clobbered by a 8ft on the south shore...it can happen. this swell should last well into the weekend with saturdat seeing leftover 3ft waves for the true warriors to chew on. oh yah there will be some waves on the north shore tomorrow and wednesday, but with this being the first swell of the season i'll let you figure that one out.
Posted by megaprober at 09:35 PM | Comments (0)
September 07, 2005
9/8
THURSDAY... small waves along southern shores with the persistent lingering south swell we've had over the last few days. the swell should hang in there in the 1-2ft range and keep conditions just above flat. eastern shores will top the list once again as strong and gusty trades both locally and upstream have cmbined to make for a powerful wind swell near the 5ft catagory and also warrenting the issue of a high surf advisary along eastern shorelines. winds will crank to near 30mph on the gusts.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
not much happening locally except the stormy windswell we're currently experiencing. this trend should continue for the next five days and peak out near saturday with windswell pushing 6ft at some locations. the primary culprit responsible for the strong and gusty trades is the large central northeastern pacific high that dominates this area of the ocean well over 60% of the year. when it really fires the trades max out near 35mph here in hawaii. in addition ot the local wave production by the trades there is also an upstream area of tradewinds that helps push the wave heights slightly larger.
going south off of new zealand a new storm is in developement that will produce one of the largest south swells of the year. looking back nearly five days ago this mammoth of a storm began to show on charts and my first thought was that this senerio looks to good to be true. generally storms of this maginitude are never all together optimal for hawaii. either they are in the wrong place, travelling the wrong way or aimed toward the americas. this one is a beauty as it is optimally palced slightly east of new zealand, it is moving northeast and it is expected to produce waves near the 45ft mark. and even better the waves are going to hit that pinnical for well over 24hrs. if this storm goes as planned hawaii will see waves reaching 6ft at select locations and possibly even bigger. so far, thursday the low will deepen rapidly to near 944mb, which is huge in wather terms, and winds will increase to near hurricane strength and remain so for the next 24-36hrs. during this time the storm will move in a northeastward direction over the already roughened waters by the initail winds. this will be the key factor as if the strong winds do move over the newly massive seas the swell will be easily manipulated to greater hights and the swells will build into even longer wave periods, possibly reaching 25sec. waves of this magnitude are the behemoth rouge waves spoken of in years to come. with the rouge waves come lesser loss of energy and greater angular dispersal, basically this means that hawaii is going to get some...regardless. the final key ingredient of the recipe is whether or not the system's main swath of energy stay aimed at hawaii or close to it. at last look the mainl fetch seems to be actually improving with regards to hawaii than it did a week ago. tomorrow ans friday will tell the whole story, but as for now the stage looks set for the possibility genuinely memorable south swell.
late in the forecast period a low pressure system will deepen in the far northwestern pacific. the storm looks favorable for hawaii as it will move southeasward toward the islands briefly before dispersing into the gulf of alasks. before it does a captured fetch will set up and produce a 4-6ft northwest swell due to arrive locally monday into tuesday. this swell will mark the kick off of our north shore season as it should be a genuine northwest swell will sets reaching double-overhead at some spots.
Posted by megaprober at 11:04 PM | Comments (0)
September 04, 2005
9/5
MONDAY...waves should stick around in the 3ft solid range from 145deg and 195deg. surf should be fairly consistent with the two directions of waves although the longer period south-southwest swell will start to fade out as the day goes on. windward shores will be near the 4ft mark on a new tradewind swell that filled in all day today 9/4. with the strong trades tomorrow windswell may actually increase somewhat in size. on that note we can also expect winds conditions as the trades come up a notch into the 15-30mph range. good for kiting.
large south swell later in the week check out my tahiti update.
Posted by megaprober at 09:09 PM | Comments (0)
September 03, 2005
9/4
SUNDAY...waves to keep breaking on southern shores right in the thick of it. surf should peak out from two directions tomorrow. surf is currently arriving from two sources 150deg and 200deg respectably and will keep southern shores in the 2-3 occ. 4ft range. the 200deg surf was generated from a deep southern source off of new zealand as as with typical south swells the surf will stay fairly inconsistent. the surf from the south-southeast will help keep the lulls in check hopefully as this swell is near the same height it could fill in during lulls from the south-southwest swell. rare is it that we get two south swells hitting at the same time. the call is for moderate surf with windy conditions due to the trades so the usual spots will be at maximum overload.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
surf episodes along the southern shore will be the primary focus of wave forecasting for this period. the present swell(s) will continue to fill in over night tonight the 3rd and remain unabaited tomorrow with surf in the 2-3 occ 4ft range. most spots should produce some surf as there may be a variety of spots that usually don't break as good on typcal south swells (170-210deg). the SSE swell is arriving from 150deg which is slightly out of our usual swell window so certain spots may reviel new sides to them. look for surf to slowly drop over the next two to three days as these swell move north of the islands.
the deep south pacific will ramin acive over the next five days, however, there will not be any real organized storms that will align well relative to hawaii. surf will stay about chest to waist high for until early next week. this is typical for the south shores as the south pacific remains rough enough to keep summer background swell in our vicinity. the summer background swell is term used locally to describe small surf that remains constant throughout the summer that is orignated from various unknown sources near the roaring fourties.
the trade winds are going to return as a large area of high pressure builds in the central northeast pacific for the next week. theses high pressures are resposible for the general flow of our trades and when they get real large the trades can start to howl. trades over the next five days will be blowing between 15-25mph with gusts near 30mph.
looking ahead...what may be the biggest south swell of the year if all goes well. models are showing a massive storm forming due south of hawaii about 3600mi. wave charts are showing impressive waveheights in excess of 45ft over a fairly large area. the storm will begin to form somtime next thursday so monitoring of this system will need to be done as these storms rarely live up to the models predictions. in any case if the system does pan out and goes as forecasted hawaii may see a true 6ft south swell.
Posted by megaprober at 11:38 PM | Comments (0)
September 01, 2005
9/2 panic attack
FRIDAY LABOR DAY WEEEKEND...sources are telling me that the current south swell has not peaked and that the largest surf may come in the morning between 6-12pm. the buoy charts are showing swell to peak out near 2.5ft around 2am this morning. given the travel time from buoy 2 i'd say that waves will arrive locally around 10am. these are simply models and this is a south swell so chances are that this timing of the peak of the episode is off somewhat. waves were definitely more consistent today than yesturday so that's a good sign. the call is for 2-4ft surf peaking around mid-day and also a reinforcement of the trades. winds sould start blowing from the east-northeast 10-20mph.
bodysurfed panics this morning and found 15 heads in the water at 630am. was really dissapointed and sweore off the spot as boardsurfers thought the law applied to everybody but them. reluctantly went back at 330pm and the waves were bigger and cleaner and only 6 heads. sprinted back to the car and then to the line-up and caught 6 great waves and 2 of which were bombs.
Posted by megaprober at 10:13 PM | Comments (0)