« 10/26 | Main | high pressure »
October 27, 2005
10/28
FRIDAY...the northwest swell that arrived today was, in my opinion, forecasted slightly too large. waves did fill in on the north shore and reached 4ft at the largest locations and even then that was being generous. this swell will definitely be on the way out by tomorrow and surf will be 2-3ft in the morning and remain so most of the day and end the day in the 2ft range. winds are modeled to start swinging around to the east somwhat which will assist in making offshore conditions on the north shore.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
surf in the north pacific has taken an otherwise unorganized course of action for the next few days. with the exception of the next swell surf may be on hiatus through the middle of the next week.
the next system in the far north pacific has formed over the last day. it will more or less hug the northen boundry of the north pacific just below the aleutian islands and only to dissipate on saturday in the gulf of alaska. maximum state has been reached and open ocean swell heights of near 30ft have been reached. given the travel distance of 2400nm swells will reach hawaii well groomed and 1/5th of their original height. long traveled swells such as this only the largest of the waves will be able to make the journey, as such there can be expected lulls and sets with more than three waves during the peak of the swell. look for this swell to slowly fill in on sunday out 320-335deg with the longer period waves intially affecting certain reefs that enjoy this direction. some spots may be nearly flat and others may crank off and on.
after this swell the north pacific looks to go into an erratic and chaotic pattern if there is such a term. the jet stream has been running east to west over the last few days and early next week the jet stream is modeled to pinch off and eddy slightly west-northwest of hawaii and generate a surface low. the current forecast is for it to begin moving west and any swell developed will be aimed west of hawaii toward somoa. after the eddy pinches the jetstream should return to a zonal east-west pattern, however, as of this writing there is nothing in the models that looks favorable to hawaii as far as swell producers.
over the weekend a moderate south swell should fill in locally and produce head high surf at most spots. the source was a storm east of new zealand that was long lived and will provide solid three foot surf for at least three days. waves should start filling in out 190deg on friday and select reefs may see some early forerunners that will catch the unexpected. it is my experience that some south swells have long period forerunner sets that arrive up to a day before the main swath. this may be due to the fact that the larger sets tend to travel slighty faster and given such a long distance there is ample time for them to get a good lead.
weather may get wet on tuesday as the passage of a frontal band may move through the islands.
next forecast sunday. aloha.
Posted by megaprober at October 27, 2005 10:30 PM