« wish i was there | Main | BLOWN AWAY!!! »
October 18, 2005
big north on the way
TUESDAY...surf should hang in there with waves in starting in the 3-4ft range and slowly declining back to the 2-3ft range by sundown. the current northwest swell arriving out of 340deg filled in a bit tardy according to the charts. the swell was associated with a long lived system that moved across the compass clockwise to the north and continued to produce swell as it progressed across the north pacific. hence this means that the north swell has managed to hang around the last few days. most people had the best day of the swell picked for monday...me included...however recent reports have changed my mind into thinking the day was today with epic 4-5ft glass. tomorrow should be still good in the AM albiet smaller than today, but still surfable. winds should be light on the north shore and try to fill in around 9am or so depending where you are.
surf is looking to continue an upward trend as storms in the north pacific are gaining more momentum.
currently there is a long lived north-nortwest swell that cooperated with local wind conditions to finally provide some nice surf early this morning. this is a sign of the times as the seasons are about to change. with the onslaught of fall into winter the winds finally start doing something different other than blowing 10-20mph trades. frontal systems will start sagging south and breaking down the northeastern central pacific high which is the culprit resposible for the trades blowing all summer.
a new storm system is in the works and is currently in its infancy, but by the time it is all well and done it will be the producer of a large north swell for hawaii and an even larger one for the west coast of north america. the scenario will unfold with a low pressure forming over northeastern asia, which it has already done, and move over the kamchatka islands and finally into the far north pacific, where it is curretly located. the system will stay just south of the aleutian islands and rapidly intensify into a major storm. by thursday the system will have organized into a massive low pressure center covering most of the gulf of alaska. winds at this time are modeled to reach hurricane strength briefly just west of the center due north of hawaii. although these winds exist they will play only a minor part in the swell. during the system's initial stages a broad area of winds near 40mph will blow favorable to hawaii for for 24hrs or so. with the captured fetch being nearly 1300nm and winds moving over agitated waters the models are showing seas to be produced in excess of 45ft.
the main swell swath looks to be aimed better for central america and california. hawaii looks to catch the western side of the main swell, but it still should receive an abundant amount of waves due to dispersal. waves should start to fill in on saturday and biuld rapidly to advisay levels possibly reaching warnig levels. as of this writing the swell models are moving around and fine tuning will be needed over the next two days to get a more accurate picture.
Posted by megaprober at October 18, 2005 10:48 PM