October 27, 2005
10/28
FRIDAY...the northwest swell that arrived today was, in my opinion, forecasted slightly too large. waves did fill in on the north shore and reached 4ft at the largest locations and even then that was being generous. this swell will definitely be on the way out by tomorrow and surf will be 2-3ft in the morning and remain so most of the day and end the day in the 2ft range. winds are modeled to start swinging around to the east somwhat which will assist in making offshore conditions on the north shore.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
surf in the north pacific has taken an otherwise unorganized course of action for the next few days. with the exception of the next swell surf may be on hiatus through the middle of the next week.
the next system in the far north pacific has formed over the last day. it will more or less hug the northen boundry of the north pacific just below the aleutian islands and only to dissipate on saturday in the gulf of alaska. maximum state has been reached and open ocean swell heights of near 30ft have been reached. given the travel distance of 2400nm swells will reach hawaii well groomed and 1/5th of their original height. long traveled swells such as this only the largest of the waves will be able to make the journey, as such there can be expected lulls and sets with more than three waves during the peak of the swell. look for this swell to slowly fill in on sunday out 320-335deg with the longer period waves intially affecting certain reefs that enjoy this direction. some spots may be nearly flat and others may crank off and on.
after this swell the north pacific looks to go into an erratic and chaotic pattern if there is such a term. the jet stream has been running east to west over the last few days and early next week the jet stream is modeled to pinch off and eddy slightly west-northwest of hawaii and generate a surface low. the current forecast is for it to begin moving west and any swell developed will be aimed west of hawaii toward somoa. after the eddy pinches the jetstream should return to a zonal east-west pattern, however, as of this writing there is nothing in the models that looks favorable to hawaii as far as swell producers.
over the weekend a moderate south swell should fill in locally and produce head high surf at most spots. the source was a storm east of new zealand that was long lived and will provide solid three foot surf for at least three days. waves should start filling in out 190deg on friday and select reefs may see some early forerunners that will catch the unexpected. it is my experience that some south swells have long period forerunner sets that arrive up to a day before the main swath. this may be due to the fact that the larger sets tend to travel slighty faster and given such a long distance there is ample time for them to get a good lead.
weather may get wet on tuesday as the passage of a frontal band may move through the islands.
next forecast sunday. aloha.
Posted by megaprober at 10:30 PM | Comments (0)
October 26, 2005
10/26
THURSDAY...surf will rise by noon tomorrow as a new northwest swell arrives. a new swell was generated by a system north of the islands that filled in right behind the system associated with the large north swell over the last weekend. the storm was small and quick lived and as such the swell will be moderate in size and quick to pass. expect surf to to start off less than 3ft and build during the day and reach the 5ft range by the afternoon. waves will top out in the 3-5ft range late in the day and possibly into thursday night. as the swell's primary energy is 340-05deg north facing reefs will definitely be slightly larger. winds will be gusty trades 15-25mph.
Posted by megaprober at 10:47 PM | Comments (0)
October 23, 2005
pinball wizard
6-8ft pinballs with a few others. waves got better as the evening set in. the outer boil was off and on and near the end a few real gems came through and unloaded on the inside section. tough wave to throw yourself over the ledge. when looking from the hill it looks so easy, but when you get out there the waves are a lot more intimidating. still had a good time and it was good to scratch away from some real sets.
Posted by megaprober at 09:07 PM | Comments (0)
October 21, 2005
be safe!!!
SATURDAY...surf is about to change with the arrival of a large powerful north swell. waves of near warning levels will rock the islands and produce surf in excess of 15ft on the local scale. a massive storm system north of the islands this past week produced a large wide fetch that has sent waves covering the entire eastern pacific from hawaii to north america. waves will start out small to moderate in the morning only to rise abruptly and max out all the usual spots except the outer reefs and waimea bay. surf conditions will be nothing short of dangerous and any surfer entering the water needs to excercise extreme caution late in the day as the surf jumps from fun to frightening. expect surf in the 10-12ft range with 15 and even 18ft rouge sets washing out many beaches. winds will be coming on and maintaining speeds of near 30mph so again conditions will be sloppy, choppy and viscious. use good judgement if entering the water.
Posted by megaprober at 08:13 PM | Comments (0)
October 20, 2005
storm surf
FRIDAY...waves will bottom out on aloha friday as the ocean prepares to switch gears. two small north-northwest swells will stick around for the day keeping conditions just above flat. the first swell will be the residue of the lang lasting swell that's been around all week. the last gasp of the swell will come forth tomorrow as swell periods in the 9sec range mark the final swell waves produced by this system. on its heels however is another small northerly swell that was formed by a close batch of winds that formed just north of the islands. waves from this episode will be short lived and produce small surf in the 2-3ft range with weak conditions as swell periods of 12sec offer moderate refrectory components although a stray four footer may be found here and there. winds are on double secret probation as they are very hard to distunguish and are subject to radical changes over the next few days. one thing is for shore they should start blowing later tomorrow reaching 25mph.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
giant surf is on the way to hawaii and is arriving with strong and gusty northerly trades.
a large powerful winter style storm has tracked rapidly across the north pacific and is currently generating seas in excess of 45ft. the system is located almost directly north of hawaii and is aiming the largest swell wave in the direction of mexico. both california and hawaii will definitely get their share of waves as the system is large and broad and will produce waves over a good three to four day period.
the initial swells to arrive in hawaii should arrive locally during the day saturday with surf rapidly jumping from small to dangrous levels as both the primary and secondary swells arrive simulataneously. while the low pressure was forming a batch of winds oriented 345deg roughly relative to hawaii set up and sent a swell that should start to fill in late friday night with 10-12sec wave periods which will translate into 2-4ft surf at most spots. saturday morning will see surf rise abruptly from 2-4ft to 10-12ft at most spots over the course of only a few hours which is likely to produce very dangrerous conditions along north and northeast shores as this swell will be arriving out of the straight north. as the storm gained strength and maxed out hurricane force winds developed and although they were over a limited area and were favorable to our swell window for only a short time, they acted on already agitated seas and produced rouge waves in the much larger energy bands of 17-22sec. theses waves will likely show up mixed in with the other main swell swath that was created by a broad area of 40mph winds that extended nearly 1000nm across the north pacific. these are the waves that will make up the bulk of the swell and produce surf in the 10-12ft range with 14-17sec periods.
to sum it up there will be three sources of surf that will all arrive as a mixed bag. for a rule of thumb expect a 10-12ft north swell, but while the surf is pounding rouge waves nearing 15ft may or may not show up. these rouge waves are almost another swell and they will have such large wave periods they will be capable of refracting on some reefs up to four time their initial height and to top it off trade winds will also be howling producing a trade swell nearing the 10ft on the open ocean swell scale with very rough and choppy seas. i expect crowds to be minimal this weekend on the north shore.
Posted by megaprober at 10:27 PM | Comments (0)
October 19, 2005
10/20
THURSDAY...surf will trend down as the long persistent swell that has provided varying periods of fun surf for most of the week finally dwindles. the latest forecast is for the swell to bottom out in the 2ft range tomorrow and stay that way until friday when foreunners of the next north swell should start to show. the conditions in the morning are hard to predict as a low pressure system formed west of kauai and has brought clouds and moisture up from the south. models are saying that it should move out and away from the islands by tomorrow morning so if it does expect trades to fill in behind and start blowing by 10am. my guess is that the weather forecast is about 70% accurate and these are the situations where a whole new forecast is issued due to a wrong call so winds may be light for most of the day.
Posted by megaprober at 08:56 PM | Comments (0)
BLOWN AWAY!!!
got off work and b-lined it to the my getaway spot "up" there. was paddling out and found this other guy on a long board aiming for the same peak i was for some solitude. at first i was a bit peaved as i thought that i had made a discovery. so when we both arrived simulataneously i gave him the hey how ya doing?. he said fine and i decided that this guy was cool and we'd share some waves. he seemed a little agresssive, but wa happy to trade as it was just us. so we get to talking and he says "ya i was sick for a while and i haven't surfed in two years". so i'm thinking ya sure, but then i notice the skin discolorations and lesions that are healed, but still are showing somewhat and damn if that guy couldn't paddle. even more amazing is he didn't back off on the sets. so more talking going on and then it hits me...i mean HITS ME...i know this guy and a year ago he was diagnosed with cancer and the doctors had at one point given him weeks and then days...and for one reason or another he clung to life by threads. i mean IT WAS OVER!!! one night i i up at a friends house and he was laying 100yrds away dying. it ruined my night and i couldn't even go back there until i thought it was over...it really struck me how scared of death i really am. now almost a year later this guy shows up charging waves with me. for lack of a better word i was flabagasted. and to think i wasn't even going to go surf and even more pathetic was that i had an attitude toward this guy paddling in my direction...what an asshole of me to think such fucked up thoughts. i can tell you this that i am now less of an asshole than i was 5hrs ago and i'll try to make a point to reality check my attitude toward other people in the lineup and around everwhere else. you never know the person next to you may have a new lease on life and the last thing they need is some flak from an idiot that doesn't even realize how good they have it. on top of it all i got an in-n-out.
i've never been one to say this, but what the hell...PEACE.
Posted by megaprober at 08:35 PM | Comments (0)
October 18, 2005
big north on the way
TUESDAY...surf should hang in there with waves in starting in the 3-4ft range and slowly declining back to the 2-3ft range by sundown. the current northwest swell arriving out of 340deg filled in a bit tardy according to the charts. the swell was associated with a long lived system that moved across the compass clockwise to the north and continued to produce swell as it progressed across the north pacific. hence this means that the north swell has managed to hang around the last few days. most people had the best day of the swell picked for monday...me included...however recent reports have changed my mind into thinking the day was today with epic 4-5ft glass. tomorrow should be still good in the AM albiet smaller than today, but still surfable. winds should be light on the north shore and try to fill in around 9am or so depending where you are.
surf is looking to continue an upward trend as storms in the north pacific are gaining more momentum.
currently there is a long lived north-nortwest swell that cooperated with local wind conditions to finally provide some nice surf early this morning. this is a sign of the times as the seasons are about to change. with the onslaught of fall into winter the winds finally start doing something different other than blowing 10-20mph trades. frontal systems will start sagging south and breaking down the northeastern central pacific high which is the culprit resposible for the trades blowing all summer.
a new storm system is in the works and is currently in its infancy, but by the time it is all well and done it will be the producer of a large north swell for hawaii and an even larger one for the west coast of north america. the scenario will unfold with a low pressure forming over northeastern asia, which it has already done, and move over the kamchatka islands and finally into the far north pacific, where it is curretly located. the system will stay just south of the aleutian islands and rapidly intensify into a major storm. by thursday the system will have organized into a massive low pressure center covering most of the gulf of alaska. winds at this time are modeled to reach hurricane strength briefly just west of the center due north of hawaii. although these winds exist they will play only a minor part in the swell. during the system's initial stages a broad area of winds near 40mph will blow favorable to hawaii for for 24hrs or so. with the captured fetch being nearly 1300nm and winds moving over agitated waters the models are showing seas to be produced in excess of 45ft.
the main swell swath looks to be aimed better for central america and california. hawaii looks to catch the western side of the main swell, but it still should receive an abundant amount of waves due to dispersal. waves should start to fill in on saturday and biuld rapidly to advisay levels possibly reaching warnig levels. as of this writing the swell models are moving around and fine tuning will be needed over the next two days to get a more accurate picture.
Posted by megaprober at 10:48 PM | Comments (0)
October 16, 2005
wish i was there
MONDAY...surf is building and will fill in overnight and reward many with good to epic condtions depending on the spot. tonight surf waas pushing 4ft on the sets out of the northwest with sets every 20-40min. the set intervals became smaller and the sets began becoming more consistent toward dark. with the buoys ahowinf the increase in energy and waveheights surf will be 4-6ft tomorrow and possibly a tad bigger. winds will be light to non-existent in the morning. wish i was there.
Posted by megaprober at 10:43 PM | Comments (0)
October 15, 2005
10/16
SUNDAY...small surf for the day on sunday as the current swell vanishes and small lull occures before the nex swell arrives. looking at the charts i was hopeful that the new swell would start to fill in during the day on sunday, but it most likely won't begin to show until near sundown. there may be some foreunners at select spots in the afternoon, but again my guess is that if you go on a search for surf tomorrow you'll be greeted by small crowded weak conditions...monday will be a different story.
Posted by megaprober at 06:25 PM | Comments (0)
October 13, 2005
drama
FRIDAY...first large north swell of the season has arrived and turned the north shore on for the day. reports are trickling in from various sources of some mean surf and large crowds making for lame surf sessions for most. as a rule the sediments get churned up on the first swell and make the water both cloudy and greenish-brown. stories of closed out spots and harrowing escapes have found their way to my ears and again confirming that the north shore requires the ability to conquering fear each winter. so what for tomorrow? still large surf in the morning as the buoys have maxed, but remain large enough that i'd still say that the possibility of getting slapped around does exist in the morning. look for poweful 4-6ft surf with occasional 8ft sneaker sets at selenct spots. winds may drop a bit allowing for slightly cleaner conditions friday morning.
Posted by megaprober at 09:51 PM | Comments (0)
October 12, 2005
north
WEDNESDAY...large surf is on the way for tomorrow. a large storm northwest of hawaii has generated the first winter swell of the season. as of this writing the swell has travelled the distance and is currently pinging buoy 1. the swell energy is rapidly increasing and the wave heights have shot up over the last two hours. the swell is also registering under the waimea buoy and it wouldn't be a far reach to assume that if you were sitting out in the lineup at sunset you might be a little nervous as every set seems bigger than the last. the call is for a building powerful swell to fill in overnight and greet the morning chargers with true mean 6-8ft surf and most likely 10ft streetsweepers every 20min. most spots will be maxed and conditions will look out of control at some spots. conditions iffy in the morning as winds are whipping around and rain squalls are the norm. waves may clean up as the day moves on and some spots may offer some serious adrenaline rushes.
Posted by megaprober at 06:57 PM | Comments (0)
October 10, 2005
the north pacific awakens!!!
5-DAY OUTLOOK
the north pacific has finally gotten organized and is about to send the goods.
a series of fast moving storms are crossing the north pacific during the coarse of the week. the seond one in that formed is presently reaching maximum stregth as it moves above hawaii to the north-northwest. the present swell generation is aimed well east of hawaii, however, in the earlier phases of the system the fetch was more favorable to hawaii. if the swell currenltly forming was pushed toward hawaii the swell may have reached 12-15ft due to the present sea heights near the 40ft mark.
as mentioned above the system was better oriented in regards to hawaii earlier on and even then the swell generation was adaquet enough to produce a juicy 6-8ft swell here on the north shore. the swell should attain moderate hights that meaning most spots will be surfable and some that favor this particular swell may even be near maxed out. as with a ski mountain early in the season generally speaking the first few weeks only a few trails are open. i would equate this with the smaller swell arriving tomorrow as it will only be large enough for a few places to be ridable. the larger swell will be big enough to open most of the trails so many of the usual spots will offer some real waves and spread the crowds and probably keep many out of the water as this is not the summer anymore.
look for the swell to start showing late wednesday and build overnight and greet the morning risers with solid 6-8ft triple overhead surf at some of the larger spots. waves should be abusive all day and remind many of the stale surfers that winter is here and your not ready. others may have some fun which is good because everybody will get to test their skilles soon enough as another swell is due to arrive near the weekend and this one may be a tad larger.
TUESDAY...a new northwest will arrive and push waves into the 4ft range at the largest spots. the storm associated with this well was a marginal gale hugging the aleutian island chain and sent the primary swell swath well to the east of the islands so hawaii will recieve the side scraps. generally this will make for a fairly inconsistent swell in north shore terms. the north pacific high is in full gear and has allowed the trades to reach full power. as the early fall months are typically windier when the trades do blow expect these winds to howl for the day making for choppy conditions and rough seas.
Posted by megaprober at 09:46 PM | Comments (2)
October 08, 2005
the lion
surfed one of my getaway spots for the first time in a while. found some good thumpers out at the spot. waves were 2-4ft with the larger ones bowing down the ocean and even a few barrels to be had although i didn't find one. tried out a new board today and was totally stoked on it.
SATURDAY...surf will stay windy and choppy along the eastern shores with strong and gusty trades although they may back off a notch. southern shores will see the departure of the last large south swell of the year...most likely. northern shores will see surf drop as well. for the most part a mediocre surf day in paradise. mostly head high along southern and eastern shores and waist high slong northern shores. if you score waves tomorrow than lady luck has taken a interest in you.
Posted by megaprober at 08:28 PM | Comments (0)
October 06, 2005
the wave
surfed a new spot near my work. place breaks on only the big ones and aside from platic bags getting caught on my legs a few times it was better than expected. big waaaaayyy outside peak with only 5ft or bigger able to break. first few were fun sizable drops, but never really saw the wall yet. finally went to the outside peak and waited for the one to come. it finally did and after windmilling for the wave it finally let me in. the drop was steep and i was curled up on the way over the ledge, but the wieght on the front worked and i unfolded on the way down and bottom turned and saw the pit bowing concave. came off the bottom and pulled up and under did the arm drag to slow down and hung close only to pull my fist out of the face and blow onto the shoulder. you know that old story. maybe the wave of the summer??? north swells on the way
FRIDAY...south swell finally filled in and arrived a little later than i expected and lived up to the size i was predicting. the swell topped out with a good near 5ft open ocean swell with waves of real refraction hitting near 8ft at select spots on the largest sets. surf should trend down and be a reversal of wednesday. surf should be 3-4ft solid at most spots and 5ft sets at the standouts. waves will return to being less than consistent. winds will be trades. north shore should be in the head high range with crossed up ineterference patterns from the powerful tradewind swell wrapping in at select spots.
Posted by megaprober at 10:26 PM | Comments (0)
October 05, 2005
that's the point
went on a good ole fashioned surf hunt with my good friends joe and borsct. decided it was time to check out the sacred spot and although the lulls were long when the sets came it was both challenging and thrilling. i pussed out on two waves which i have come to realize that more training is needed in order tocharge up to expectations. joe charged hardest and he easily won the heat with both most waves and biggest wave. i wasn't all shoulder hopping though as i did score one of the best and longest waves i've ever gotten out there and by the end i left the spot feeling i conquered new territory and will be ready for next years assult. waves 4-5ft with 6ft bombs that woke everybody up. my biggest wave 5ft joe's i'll give him the 6ft claim. some wave had sick pits that nobody seemed to really want or go after...as usual for that spot.
THURSDAY...swell has arrived and filled in along southern shores of the hawaiian islands. the current swell is 3-5ft out of 190deg with primary energy in the 16-20sec bands. the swell, in my opinion, was not as large as expected and came shore by about a foot in overall groundswell size. my guess is that the main swath was slightly east and that the storm never reached the size neccessary to produce large enough surf to live up to the WW3 model outputs. most areas got 4ft sets although this swell seemed to have painfully long lulls. tomorrow will see the swell begin to drop as it will peak overnight. surf should be 3-5ft in the morning and possibly may be larger than this afternoon as i have a hunch this one is a little behind schedual. winds will be moderate to strong trades.
Posted by megaprober at 10:34 PM | Comments (0)
October 04, 2005
knockin' at your backdoor
WEDNESDAY...the big question is where and when. i have been monitoring buoy 2 all day long and i have seen nothing in regards to the swell that's on the way. as of 2025 hawaii time there still is little in the way of energy registering on buoys 2,3 and 4. without buoy 28 this scenerio reminds me of back in the day when we had no buoy 28 and swells would show up unanounced and without warning. south swells were very hard to predict as recently as 3 years ago due to fact many did not know what to look for and without the power readings on the buoys it was difficult to know what was groundswell and what was windswell. so for now the call is for a building swell during the day tomorrow as the swell fills in. as this swell is late on arrival that may mean that it is travelling more slowly hence it may not be as large as it was originally forecasted. the large swells will often show up early and catch forecasters off guard as did the last large south swell. surf should be 2-4ft solid in the AM and build to the 5ft range by sundown. winds will be cranking out of the east-northeast.
with this new south swell on the door step it is probably in order to discuss what we can expect from this episode. the storm system associated with the swell was a massive gale located off the eastern coast of new zealand. as the strom grew in intesisty it progressed northeastward over the angry seas it just recently created. this in term of swell production is the best case scnerio.
because the swell recieved additional winds and hence more energy this eneabled the swell to travel with less loss of power and with the distance to hawaii being well ober 3000nm this additional push is beneficial. the storm blased winds well over 48hrs in our direction so the swell episode at peak heights may stay around for 2 days. given the day of formation and day of degeneration the swell should provide waves for nearly 4 days. as of this writing the swell has just started to show so expect waves from this swell wednesday thru saturday.
stay tuned tomorrow for a north shore update!!!
Posted by megaprober at 10:17 PM | Comments (0)
October 02, 2005
10/3
MONDAY...surf should drop a bit further on monday and bottom out near the 1-2ft range along southern shores and 2ft on eastern shores. this will be the lull before the storm as a new southerly swell may show up on tuesday. as the persistent tropical wave has now moved on off to the west, sunny skies and easterly trades will make the usual spots surf worthy. northern shores should be mosly unridable for the day and remain so for another day or to. lastly, a small south-southwesterly swell may fill in later in the day. because this swell was generated in the tasman sea odds are lower that it will actually show due to all the island shadowing in the southwest pacific.
Posted by megaprober at 06:23 PM | Comments (0)