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October 04, 2005
knockin' at your backdoor
WEDNESDAY...the big question is where and when. i have been monitoring buoy 2 all day long and i have seen nothing in regards to the swell that's on the way. as of 2025 hawaii time there still is little in the way of energy registering on buoys 2,3 and 4. without buoy 28 this scenerio reminds me of back in the day when we had no buoy 28 and swells would show up unanounced and without warning. south swells were very hard to predict as recently as 3 years ago due to fact many did not know what to look for and without the power readings on the buoys it was difficult to know what was groundswell and what was windswell. so for now the call is for a building swell during the day tomorrow as the swell fills in. as this swell is late on arrival that may mean that it is travelling more slowly hence it may not be as large as it was originally forecasted. the large swells will often show up early and catch forecasters off guard as did the last large south swell. surf should be 2-4ft solid in the AM and build to the 5ft range by sundown. winds will be cranking out of the east-northeast.
with this new south swell on the door step it is probably in order to discuss what we can expect from this episode. the storm system associated with the swell was a massive gale located off the eastern coast of new zealand. as the strom grew in intesisty it progressed northeastward over the angry seas it just recently created. this in term of swell production is the best case scnerio.
because the swell recieved additional winds and hence more energy this eneabled the swell to travel with less loss of power and with the distance to hawaii being well ober 3000nm this additional push is beneficial. the storm blased winds well over 48hrs in our direction so the swell episode at peak heights may stay around for 2 days. given the day of formation and day of degeneration the swell should provide waves for nearly 4 days. as of this writing the swell has just started to show so expect waves from this swell wednesday thru saturday.
stay tuned tomorrow for a north shore update!!!
Posted by megaprober at October 4, 2005 10:17 PM