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October 20, 2005
storm surf
FRIDAY...waves will bottom out on aloha friday as the ocean prepares to switch gears. two small north-northwest swells will stick around for the day keeping conditions just above flat. the first swell will be the residue of the lang lasting swell that's been around all week. the last gasp of the swell will come forth tomorrow as swell periods in the 9sec range mark the final swell waves produced by this system. on its heels however is another small northerly swell that was formed by a close batch of winds that formed just north of the islands. waves from this episode will be short lived and produce small surf in the 2-3ft range with weak conditions as swell periods of 12sec offer moderate refrectory components although a stray four footer may be found here and there. winds are on double secret probation as they are very hard to distunguish and are subject to radical changes over the next few days. one thing is for shore they should start blowing later tomorrow reaching 25mph.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
giant surf is on the way to hawaii and is arriving with strong and gusty northerly trades.
a large powerful winter style storm has tracked rapidly across the north pacific and is currently generating seas in excess of 45ft. the system is located almost directly north of hawaii and is aiming the largest swell wave in the direction of mexico. both california and hawaii will definitely get their share of waves as the system is large and broad and will produce waves over a good three to four day period.
the initial swells to arrive in hawaii should arrive locally during the day saturday with surf rapidly jumping from small to dangrous levels as both the primary and secondary swells arrive simulataneously. while the low pressure was forming a batch of winds oriented 345deg roughly relative to hawaii set up and sent a swell that should start to fill in late friday night with 10-12sec wave periods which will translate into 2-4ft surf at most spots. saturday morning will see surf rise abruptly from 2-4ft to 10-12ft at most spots over the course of only a few hours which is likely to produce very dangrerous conditions along north and northeast shores as this swell will be arriving out of the straight north. as the storm gained strength and maxed out hurricane force winds developed and although they were over a limited area and were favorable to our swell window for only a short time, they acted on already agitated seas and produced rouge waves in the much larger energy bands of 17-22sec. theses waves will likely show up mixed in with the other main swell swath that was created by a broad area of 40mph winds that extended nearly 1000nm across the north pacific. these are the waves that will make up the bulk of the swell and produce surf in the 10-12ft range with 14-17sec periods.
to sum it up there will be three sources of surf that will all arrive as a mixed bag. for a rule of thumb expect a 10-12ft north swell, but while the surf is pounding rouge waves nearing 15ft may or may not show up. these rouge waves are almost another swell and they will have such large wave periods they will be capable of refracting on some reefs up to four time their initial height and to top it off trade winds will also be howling producing a trade swell nearing the 10ft on the open ocean swell scale with very rough and choppy seas. i expect crowds to be minimal this weekend on the north shore.
Posted by megaprober at October 20, 2005 10:27 PM