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October 10, 2005
the north pacific awakens!!!
5-DAY OUTLOOK
the north pacific has finally gotten organized and is about to send the goods.
a series of fast moving storms are crossing the north pacific during the coarse of the week. the seond one in that formed is presently reaching maximum stregth as it moves above hawaii to the north-northwest. the present swell generation is aimed well east of hawaii, however, in the earlier phases of the system the fetch was more favorable to hawaii. if the swell currenltly forming was pushed toward hawaii the swell may have reached 12-15ft due to the present sea heights near the 40ft mark.
as mentioned above the system was better oriented in regards to hawaii earlier on and even then the swell generation was adaquet enough to produce a juicy 6-8ft swell here on the north shore. the swell should attain moderate hights that meaning most spots will be surfable and some that favor this particular swell may even be near maxed out. as with a ski mountain early in the season generally speaking the first few weeks only a few trails are open. i would equate this with the smaller swell arriving tomorrow as it will only be large enough for a few places to be ridable. the larger swell will be big enough to open most of the trails so many of the usual spots will offer some real waves and spread the crowds and probably keep many out of the water as this is not the summer anymore.
look for the swell to start showing late wednesday and build overnight and greet the morning risers with solid 6-8ft triple overhead surf at some of the larger spots. waves should be abusive all day and remind many of the stale surfers that winter is here and your not ready. others may have some fun which is good because everybody will get to test their skilles soon enough as another swell is due to arrive near the weekend and this one may be a tad larger.
TUESDAY...a new northwest will arrive and push waves into the 4ft range at the largest spots. the storm associated with this well was a marginal gale hugging the aleutian island chain and sent the primary swell swath well to the east of the islands so hawaii will recieve the side scraps. generally this will make for a fairly inconsistent swell in north shore terms. the north pacific high is in full gear and has allowed the trades to reach full power. as the early fall months are typically windier when the trades do blow expect these winds to howl for the day making for choppy conditions and rough seas.
Posted by megaprober at October 10, 2005 09:46 PM
Comments
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Posted by: toni at October 11, 2005 07:28 AM
Looks like the North swell is finally coming !
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