November 29, 2005
more waves
WEDNESDAY...surf to stay in the 4-6ft range for wednesday as the current north-northeast swell sends another pulse of swell to hawaii and a new northwest swell fill in during the course of the day. the north-northeast swell will receive a reinforcement from the nearby storm system. another batch of winds in the western quadrant of the storm increased over the last 36hrs and has generated a second phase of swell that will keep local surf heights near similar to what they were today. also a new northwest swell will start to fill in by mid-morning. this swell was associated by a system near the dateline a few days ago. the swell was not overly large and subsequent wave periods should be in the 10-14sec energy band. surf from this source will produce surf in the 3-5ft range an start to affect more west favoring reefs. winds again should be light.
Posted by megaprober at 09:18 PM | Comments (0)
November 28, 2005
11/29
TUESDAY...surf will drop slightly by the morning and continue downward for most of the day. although surf may be on the decline it will still be large enough to keep the adrenaline glands going for most mortals as the morning should see solid 6ft surf out of the north and then a reinforcement out of the north-northeast later in the day will keep surf in the solid 4ft range. the above combination of swell should be ample to keep enough surf along both the north and east shorelines of the islands. again the winds are behaving and there should be little in the way of breezes for the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 10:19 PM | Comments (0)
November 27, 2005
11/28
MONDAY...surf is reall going to crank as the next wave of swell comes firing through out of the north-northeast. a strong low pressure system to the north is currently generating winds just below hurricane strength. due to the close proximity of the storm the swell will arrive in full force and with little time to organize. strong power readings are registering to the west near buoy 1 and these will be a sign of things to come. usually the swells hitting buoy 1 are on their way here, however, the swell currently under that area is more likely swell travelling south-southwest away from the storm system generating it. given the storm's location of straight north in regards to hawaii and the swell being pumped out from the western quadrant waves are likely moving south-southwest and missing hawaii to the west. as the starm moves east-northeast over the next day it is likely that hawaii will be in a more direct path for the main swath of the swell. as of now we are on the eastern fringe of the main swell trains. tomorrow look for solid 10ft plus surf with the select outer reefs lighting up periodically. winds are looking good for the early mornings as they have no specific source and should remain light for sometime.
Posted by megaprober at 05:05 PM | Comments (0)
November 24, 2005
11/25
FRIDAY...waves to around for friday although the swell should be on the decline...slightly. surf from the west-northwest will drop from 5ft in the morning to 3ftby the afternoon. the northwest swell will hang in there in the 4-6ft range and be wrought with pulses throughout the day. the system associated with it is within 800nm and therefore the swell has had little chance to organize itself into a well groomed groundswell. a new north-northest swell may start to arrive by late afternoon and go virtually unnoticed due to the initial low waveheights of 2ft pr less...although surfers at log cabins may notice a boost in frequency with the rights. winds are going to light to none in the morning and then go south-southswest by the afternoon so plan accordingly. it would be a good game plan to surf early on the northshore proper and then head home and eat more turkey.
Posted by megaprober at 09:11 PM | Comments (0)
are you ready?!
went up today to scout things out. ended up catwalking the beach trying to decide if i should do a virgin attempt at avalanche or get pummelled at haleiwa. for the record haleiwa was pretty sick today with the few guys i saw paddle out generally come back in after a short time. my guess was 6-8ft with a strong current and major streetsweeper sets. ended up at lanis and paddled out and practiced my duckdiving. our spot to the west started to shape up and i felt it beckoning. nobody around even at lanis and saw at least four buzzcutted people being jerked out in the rip we are all familiar with. paddled out really just to see how i'd feel out there in stormy conditions and waves lurking everywhere. pretty much me and michael ho were the only out.
Posted by megaprober at 09:03 PM | Comments (0)
November 22, 2005
11/22
WEDNESDAY...a new northwest swell has arrived and will provide 6-8ft surf for the morning go getters. surf will continue to build during the day as the swell fills in and some spots may see surf top out near the 10ft mark. swell periods are not in the giant energy bands and this is a result of the close proximity of swell gneration. a series of low pressures systems near the islands has produced limited fetches just north and west of hawaii. these short lived storms form and winds crank for a day or two resulting in short lived swell episodes. tomorrow will see the first of a few of theses swell episodes that will quickly push surf to dangerous levels and then drop by the next day. swells such as these are typical of this time of year and surf can radically jump from morning to afternoon. winds will be variable all day as local weather is being influenced by low pressure areas in the vicinity..
Posted by megaprober at 08:53 PM | Comments (0)
November 20, 2005
beritania
surfed the other north shore today for 3.5 hours with a good friend of mine. waves were 2-3 occ 4ft and conditions just got better with the waning afternoon. two very distinct swells coming in. one from thew west and the other from the north. it was interesting to see how each swell get directed by the outer reefs. paddled down from the claw to the a---'s and every now and then a west set would pop up and imitate what it can really do. many good waves had at the claw with peeling rights and plenty roundhouses. wish i could do it daily. funny thing because both of us had yet to get a good session together and today we said sooner or later it will happen.
ps not to be aggro or anything, but bagus please...please don't mention that "M" word as a descriptive place online here due to the fact many people read this and that word is enough to allow others to pinpoint surf locations. if it isn't pipe, rockies, bowls or sunset or a spot of that caliber named areas are best left unsaid. uncrowded surf is a rare treat and lets all do our part in keeping it that way. aloha
Posted by megaprober at 08:05 PM | Comments (0)
November 19, 2005
11/20
SUNDAY...surf to trend down furthe as the lonlasting west-northwest swell makes its way out. buoy readings have shown lowering waveheights and power readings along with shorter wave periods. the call is for 2-3ft max on the north shore with no wind in the AM creating smooth glassy conditions unfortunately small waves and crowded lineups at the spots that are breaking.
Posted by megaprober at 08:18 PM | Comments (0)
November 15, 2005
time for waves
WEDNESDAY...surf is on the rise as a new west-northerst swell fills in overnight. buoy 1 has rocketed in both power and wavehights ans the long periods registering are definitely indictive of the type of swell that's been predicted. look for surf to start out in the 6-8ft range on the northshore and be on the rise and easily reach the 10ft catagory by noon. the swell may push 12ft sets on the outer reefs by the afternoon. as this swell will take time to fill in it is likely to stick around for a cuople of days. winds should be good in the morning so any contest schedueled for this time period is likely to go off.
Posted by megaprober at 08:01 PM | Comments (0)
November 14, 2005
WNW
TUESDAY...a moderate pulse will affect the northshore tomorrow as waves push back up to the 4ft range to greet the morning surfers. a 3-4ft short period swell should fill in overnight out of the west-northwest. this swell was the result of a quick moving system close to the islands that will come and go in less than 3 days. the short wave periods of 9-11sec is the clue that gives away the close proximity of the swell. swells with short wave periods such as these loose energy quickly and dissipate once away from the source. surf locally will be a 2-3ft overhead at the best locations and conditions should be ok as the trades are attempting to make a comeback and should really turn on early in the day and stay for the duration.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
all eyes are on the far west-northwest pacific as a powerful winter storm is currently winding down. this system will be the producer of the first legitimate west-northwest groundswell that will break the bounds of warning level surf above 25ft face value scale.
a powerful low pressure area formed off of japan late last week and moved out into the northwestern pacific. as it did the system rapidly intensified and produced winds near hurricane strength in the southwestern quadrant...the area best suited for surf production in hawaii. the system then moved eastward and a captured fetch set up with open ocean waveheights approching 45ft. as the weekend came to an end the system occluded and moved northeastward toward the gulf of alaska. due to the extreme winds and the storm's movement over already agitated seas very large wave periods in the 17-25sec band were created. waves in these energy bands are less suseptable to decay over large travel distances hence this swell will arrive as a powerful ground swell.
foreunners out of 300-315deg may start to ping the buoys by late tuesday night and early wednesday morning. by wendesday the swell should start to show with the outer reefs lifting and starting to break as the the first phase of the swell hits with 20-25sec period rouge waves. reef refraction plays an important role with the outer reefs as they are deep and need the swells "feeling" the bottom in order to break. wave periods of 20-25sec are ideal as they allow significant wave refraction and the high points on the reefs are able build the neccessary water volumes to break. late wednesday and early thursday the northshore should see plenty of outer reef action as the main pulse of the swell fills in.
trade winds may wreak havok on an otherwise epic groundswell as they should be peaking in the 15-25mph range on wednesday, bu thursday may offer some hope as they will be on the downswing.
southern shores will see another pulse with waves in the head high range over the next few days from a new zealand gorundswell created nearly a week ago. select spots on the south shore may be subject to wave wrappage from the west-northwest swell as it may have enough west in to find its way to certin spots.
Posted by megaprober at 08:21 PM | Comments (0)
November 12, 2005
no wind
SUNDAY...surf should drop slightly further and bottom out in the 2-4ft range max for most locations. as was the case today some spots were catching the swell much better than others. one spot i was watching today was pushing 6ft on the sets while other nearby spots were less than half the size. the northerly favored component in the swell will only be strengthened as the swell swings more north. a new pulse or series of pulses appear to accompany this swell so tomorrow may be no exception. expect epic conditions in the morning with winds being all but absent.
Posted by megaprober at 10:39 PM | Comments (0)
November 11, 2005
joints and points along with the hammer
early surf at a very remote spot far out in the ocean. very tough to get out and proved too much for me and after paddling for 45min and around the far end and into very murky water and drifting out to sea i tried to cut across the lineup only to get cleaned up and sent back to the drawing board. so much for that i got loser of the day and gladfully accepted my award as everybody else got out. went to another spot i'll call "joints and points" and got out and started doing the lefts and felt good on those and decided to go over to the rights across the way. picked off some bombs and called it a day. on the way in tried going over the reef and after staying away from it for 13yrs or so discovered why i never shot over it before. waves push over it and unfortunately for me the reef is actually above the water line. was cruising across and it got shallower and shallower and finally i had to roll off my board only to get waterfalled over the back of the reef complete with scrapes to both me and my board...i knew better . all in all a fun and frustrating day. noll's was looking pretty good, but by the time i was there it was too late.
Posted by megaprober at 06:44 PM | Comments (0)
November 09, 2005
swells
THURSDAY...surf to build along northern and southern shores as a new northwest and south swell start to fill in. presently a small north-northeast swell is moving through the island chain. with open ocean waveheights of only 2ft or so this swell may be disguised by the local windswell generated near and upstream of the islands. this meager north-northeast swell will move out of the picture and be replaced by a larger northweest swell that should start to ping buoy 1 between 8-10am tomorrow morning. forerunners of the swell may be seen as early as modnight the previous night, but the main swell swath will be under buoy 1 sometime mid-morning. locally swell should start to fill in during the afternoon and possiby be producing surf by late afternoon. the call is for a small morning with slowly increasing surf as the day progresses. surf may near the 4ft catagory by the afternoon. southern shores will also see a pulse out of the south with surf reaching 3ft at top locations. winds may be strong and gusty.
Posted by megaprober at 07:17 PM | Comments (0)
November 08, 2005
11/9
WEDNESDAY...small northeast swell possible on north shore tomorrow. a small and weak north-northeast swell may squeak in tomorrow. as the swell is modeled to register less than a meter on the buoy charts this swell is likely to go unoticed especially with the strong local windswell that is also likely to be found wrapping in on the north shore. strong easterly swell generated both locally and upwind from the islands will max out tomorrow above advisary levels. estimated open ocean heights of 10ft will translate to local style waves in the 6ft+ range at many east facing reefs although most reefs will be choppy and sloppy. with wave periods of 9sec more than usual wrappage may be found at select spots along both northern and southern shores that enjoy trade swells.
Posted by megaprober at 08:09 PM | Comments (0)
November 01, 2005
high pressure
NEXT DAY UPDATE
WEDNESDAY...surf is on the way down for northern shores as the recent northwest swell fades out. surf up that way will remain small and weak for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. the north pacific is a mess of weak areas of low pressure and under the rule of a predominant high pressure that will fuel strong trades across the northeast pacific. as a result of the trades wind swell will start to incease along eastern shores and stay near advisary levels for most of the week. winds are modeled to also fill in over the islands and the forecast looked solid for today, but as i was outside all day i really never saw any heat relieving winds...maybe tomorrow?
5-DAY OUTLOOK
north pacific is on strike with a chaotic and unorganized week ahead. with the dominant large area of high pressure taking hold in the northeastern pacific there is little in the way of low pressure areas north of hawaii. generally speaking the north pacific high, as it is sometimes refered to, tends to be strongest in the summer and as a rule dictates weather in hawaii. when the high pressure is at its peak it is accompanied by strong winds circulating clockwise around the center. with hawaii at the southern base, depending on it location, the trades take their reconizable easterly flow. if the north pacific high is more north than northeast of hawaii the winds will tend to be more northeasterly as opposed to southeasterly when the low moves toward the west coast of north america. also, when the north pacific high takes its grip large areas of low pressure are frequently absent in the north pacific and the end result is poor surf production for hawaii.
models are showing the north pacific dominate by the high for most of the week. the jet stream has moved further north than normal for this time of the year and with this occurence there is little chance of cold northern air to interact with tropical miosture and that is the catalyst is for surf production. looking at the charts this patten will remain with us for the remainder of the week right through the weekend. any low pressures forming west of the date line will likely be deflected by high pressure to the east and never reach their full potential.
east facing shores of hawaii will see large windswell as both strong winds locally and upstream are abound. surf will reach advisary levels tomorrow and possible thursday and begin to drop late thusday although tradewind swell will be around through the weekend.
southerns shores will see some small bumps during the rest of the week with maximum sets near head high.
Posted by megaprober at 07:44 PM | Comments (0)