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November 14, 2005
WNW
TUESDAY...a moderate pulse will affect the northshore tomorrow as waves push back up to the 4ft range to greet the morning surfers. a 3-4ft short period swell should fill in overnight out of the west-northwest. this swell was the result of a quick moving system close to the islands that will come and go in less than 3 days. the short wave periods of 9-11sec is the clue that gives away the close proximity of the swell. swells with short wave periods such as these loose energy quickly and dissipate once away from the source. surf locally will be a 2-3ft overhead at the best locations and conditions should be ok as the trades are attempting to make a comeback and should really turn on early in the day and stay for the duration.
5-DAY OUTLOOK
all eyes are on the far west-northwest pacific as a powerful winter storm is currently winding down. this system will be the producer of the first legitimate west-northwest groundswell that will break the bounds of warning level surf above 25ft face value scale.
a powerful low pressure area formed off of japan late last week and moved out into the northwestern pacific. as it did the system rapidly intensified and produced winds near hurricane strength in the southwestern quadrant...the area best suited for surf production in hawaii. the system then moved eastward and a captured fetch set up with open ocean waveheights approching 45ft. as the weekend came to an end the system occluded and moved northeastward toward the gulf of alaska. due to the extreme winds and the storm's movement over already agitated seas very large wave periods in the 17-25sec band were created. waves in these energy bands are less suseptable to decay over large travel distances hence this swell will arrive as a powerful ground swell.
foreunners out of 300-315deg may start to ping the buoys by late tuesday night and early wednesday morning. by wendesday the swell should start to show with the outer reefs lifting and starting to break as the the first phase of the swell hits with 20-25sec period rouge waves. reef refraction plays an important role with the outer reefs as they are deep and need the swells "feeling" the bottom in order to break. wave periods of 20-25sec are ideal as they allow significant wave refraction and the high points on the reefs are able build the neccessary water volumes to break. late wednesday and early thursday the northshore should see plenty of outer reef action as the main pulse of the swell fills in.
trade winds may wreak havok on an otherwise epic groundswell as they should be peaking in the 15-25mph range on wednesday, bu thursday may offer some hope as they will be on the downswing.
southern shores will see another pulse with waves in the head high range over the next few days from a new zealand gorundswell created nearly a week ago. select spots on the south shore may be subject to wave wrappage from the west-northwest swell as it may have enough west in to find its way to certin spots.
Posted by megaprober at November 14, 2005 08:21 PM