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December 07, 2005
big friday
THURSDAY...large swell is on the horizon, but so far there is nothing banging on the front door. all the sentries are reporting minor distrubences on the forefront so for at least the morning surf should stay relatively small. the northwest buoy is showing minimal energy and the waimea buoy is showing only minor windswell wraping around kahuku point. models are showing an early phase of the new swell on the way to begin hitting buoy 1 shortly after mid-night. if this is the case then the morning could see a new west-northwest swell building into the 3-5ft range by mid-afternoon. the next large west-northwest swell will not come in full force until after mid-night tomorrow night, however late afternoon could see forerunners in the longer wave periods of 18-22sec. winds will be brisk and tradelike for the day so the northshore proper should be the call.
surf to be on the increase for the next few days as a winter style storm northwest of hawaii has sent the goods.
a powerful storm formed over the weekend off of japan and generated a northwest swell that will affect hawaiian shores as early as late afternoon thursday. the first pulse of the storm happened in the far western north pacific on saturday and as the system came off of japan it rapidly intensified and sent an initail swell that should start to ping the the northwest buoy by midnight on wedneday and fill in locally on thursday. surf should start out the day thursday with a building episode that should peak around mid-afternoon with sets reaching 6ft on the local scale. this phase of the swell, however, will be masked by friday as the a much larger episode begins to fill in.
the system moved across the pacific toward the date line and winds regenerated around the southwestern quadrant and sent a new swell that will push surf locally to near warning levels. due to the closer proximity to the islands and that the storm generated new surf from previously agitated waters the result will be surf pushing to near 12ft with occasional higher sets. buoy 1 will need monitoring to discern whether the new phase of the swell will build to warning levels. for now the call is for thursday to build to the 4-6ft range by late afternoon and then later in the night the second round of swell should be on the front door of the islands. the second swell will arrive out of 315deg with intitail wave periods in the 18-22sec energy bands. by friday swell periods will move to the 14-17sec energy bands and surf will build by mid-day to the 10-12ft range with possibly larger sets. winds will be trades so the north shore proper will be smoother than it has been for the last few weeks. next update thursday night.
Posted by megaprober at December 7, 2005 08:25 PM