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December 23, 2005
big stuff
SATURDAY...massive surf pounded the island today with set waves approaching the 20ft threshold. word has it surfers were being cautious at the bay and sitting in the middle of the of it...this tells me that closeout sets may have been a near possibility. generally closeout sets are those approching the 25ft mark or happen from rouge waves during normal 20ft swell episodes. in any case the swell was slightly more powerful than predicted and as a result of the close proximity of the storm rouge waves were slightly more common. buoy1 readings have dropped in both power and swell heights. at the time of this report the waimea buoy seems to have just peaked with open ocean swell heights of 16ft. the call is for swell to drop slightly and hang in there with sets in 12-15ft range for the morning. the surf is likely going to be blown due to the passage of a front through the island chain with the northerly winds coming in from behind. waves may clean up later in the day as the winds swing more northeasterly.
giant surf on the menu for the next few days with most likely light winds.
big waves arrive right on cue late thursday night and peaked today with sets near the 20ft mark. the swell was the result of a large storm system within 1000nm of hawaii that churned over the last 48hr. strong winds working on an already agitated sea set up a massive swell that pushed surf into warning levels. the current swell will drop over the next two days and bottom out in the 8-10ft range sunday before being overrun by yet another large west-northwest swell.
the next storm in the series swept off of japan wednesday and rapidly intensified to extreme proportions. winds along the southwesterly quadrant quickly increased to past hurricane strength and blew in place for nearly 36hrs. these winds generated epic seas that may have approached 60ft on the open ocean scale. the main swath of this mammoth swell was aimed north of hawaii by about 25deg. this translates to the biggest set waves will miss us to the north. however, hawaii will definitely see major swell from this system. angular dispersion will all plenty of swell to make it to hawaii with 20-25% drop in energy. although 22-28ft seas will miss us to the north hawaii can expect to see surf exceed warning levels and produce set waves on all the usual outer reefs and waimea bay. surf this large will generate extreme wave periods of 20-25sec. when wave periods get to this size refraction plays an important role on wave size at the time of breaking. many of the outer reefs in hawaii need long period swells to do their thing and with wave periods this large it will be a sure bet that if the conditions warrant it, tow surfing will be excellent on the outer reefs.
hawaii can look for a rise in surf late sunday afternoon with very large waves coming in out of nowhere for those that are in the lineups. surf will rapidly build overnight and peak during the day monday with sets in the 18-20ft range at the outer reefs. winds should be fair for the north shore so tow surfing may be a go. whether or not the eddie is a go will remain to be seen...at this point i'd say no since there are more favorable swells behind this one.
Posted by megaprober at December 23, 2005 08:50 PM