December 29, 2005
12/30
FRIDAY...surf on the way back up to large levels for tomorrow. a beauty of a west-northwest ground swell will fill in along northern and western shores. as far as swells go this one is ideal for those that like it big, but not crazy. this swell was formed by a storm that as about 1800nm out from the islands 310deg on the compass. this traspires to a swell that was created at an optimum distance away. over 2000nm out, lulls become time consuming and under 1500nm the waves don't have the time to be fine tuned resulting in lumpy surf. this swell should fill in during the day tomorrow at a fairly quick pace. buoy 1 has just started to show the new swell in the very long period energy band of 20-22sec. waves should start pumping under buoy 1 tonight and greet dawn patrolers with rising surf in the 8-10ft range with larger sets. surf should continue to build all day and max out some time saturday. winds should be epic for the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 08:57 PM | Comments (0)
December 27, 2005
slight boost
WEDNESDAY...waves on the rise again as a reinforcement comes in on the heels of the weekends large west-northwest swell. an area of winds formed just behind the storm system associated with this weekend 18ft swell. the southwest quadrant fired up as the storm moved eastward north of hawaii. although the new area of winds was a 800nm or so behind, it was still associated with the much larger parent storm respossible for the massive waves over the weekned. buoy 1 has jumped during the course of the evening in both power and waveheights therefore it reasonable to assume that the surf should bump up by the morning. look for surf to 8-10ft out of the west-northwest with possible 12ft sneaker sets at select spots. winds should be good most of the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 08:45 PM | Comments (0)
December 24, 2005
the sewer
went west today and surfed one of fav waves. looks like i may have surfed the same spot as neo. was by myself the whole time. waves were a little bumpy, but they had some punch and felt the direction was close to ideal for that spot. the only gnarly part about the whole experience was the people living on the beach there. i've never seen it that bad...in fact i parked somewhere else and walked back becuse i wasn't sure of the outcome. later went up the coast and watched 3rd dip and man i've never seen guys go for it like they were at that spot. totally late and verticle drops super deep and a few impossible barrels. i alway wanted to have a go at that spot, but no way today was far to hardcore for my tastes...maybe another day when i can drop a wave without fear of getting raked and dragged. some some mean eat its and how they came up unscathed was beyond me.
SUNDAY...surf to drop for christmas day. the swell is onthe way out and surf will likely be in the 6-8ft range for the day. the swell has passed and there is going to be a breather in the surf as we wait for the next brute of a swell to start arriving. the new swell may reach the islands by tomorrow afternoon as forerunners start to feel the reefs. wave periods in the extreme energy bands of 20-25sec may start to show up tomorrow late in the day so if your out on northern shores don't be surprised to see set waves come out of nowhere in the solid 6ft range. winds should be favorable for the day as they will be light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 08:55 PM | Comments (0)
December 23, 2005
big stuff
SATURDAY...massive surf pounded the island today with set waves approaching the 20ft threshold. word has it surfers were being cautious at the bay and sitting in the middle of the of it...this tells me that closeout sets may have been a near possibility. generally closeout sets are those approching the 25ft mark or happen from rouge waves during normal 20ft swell episodes. in any case the swell was slightly more powerful than predicted and as a result of the close proximity of the storm rouge waves were slightly more common. buoy1 readings have dropped in both power and swell heights. at the time of this report the waimea buoy seems to have just peaked with open ocean swell heights of 16ft. the call is for swell to drop slightly and hang in there with sets in 12-15ft range for the morning. the surf is likely going to be blown due to the passage of a front through the island chain with the northerly winds coming in from behind. waves may clean up later in the day as the winds swing more northeasterly.
giant surf on the menu for the next few days with most likely light winds.
big waves arrive right on cue late thursday night and peaked today with sets near the 20ft mark. the swell was the result of a large storm system within 1000nm of hawaii that churned over the last 48hr. strong winds working on an already agitated sea set up a massive swell that pushed surf into warning levels. the current swell will drop over the next two days and bottom out in the 8-10ft range sunday before being overrun by yet another large west-northwest swell.
the next storm in the series swept off of japan wednesday and rapidly intensified to extreme proportions. winds along the southwesterly quadrant quickly increased to past hurricane strength and blew in place for nearly 36hrs. these winds generated epic seas that may have approached 60ft on the open ocean scale. the main swath of this mammoth swell was aimed north of hawaii by about 25deg. this translates to the biggest set waves will miss us to the north. however, hawaii will definitely see major swell from this system. angular dispersion will all plenty of swell to make it to hawaii with 20-25% drop in energy. although 22-28ft seas will miss us to the north hawaii can expect to see surf exceed warning levels and produce set waves on all the usual outer reefs and waimea bay. surf this large will generate extreme wave periods of 20-25sec. when wave periods get to this size refraction plays an important role on wave size at the time of breaking. many of the outer reefs in hawaii need long period swells to do their thing and with wave periods this large it will be a sure bet that if the conditions warrant it, tow surfing will be excellent on the outer reefs.
hawaii can look for a rise in surf late sunday afternoon with very large waves coming in out of nowhere for those that are in the lineups. surf will rapidly build overnight and peak during the day monday with sets in the 18-20ft range at the outer reefs. winds should be fair for the north shore so tow surfing may be a go. whether or not the eddie is a go will remain to be seen...at this point i'd say no since there are more favorable swells behind this one.
Posted by megaprober at 08:50 PM | Comments (0)
December 22, 2005
big friday
FRIDAY...a new swell will come roaring ashore by early morning friday prducing surf in the 15-18ft range with larger sets. a large storm with a relatively close proximity to hawaii has generated a swell due to arrive by daybreak tomorrow. the swell is already under buoy 1 as indicated by the rapid rise in surf heights and the massive jump in power readings. swells this large travel faster than do the usual smaller swells so it's a safe bet that surf will rapidly build overnight and greet the dawn patrolers with massive out of control conditions leaving the outer reefs and waimea as the the only ridable spots. tough call on the conditions as even though winds will be calm they may go northerly. also the swell may be mixed up due to the close source of generation. the call is for 15ft by morning building to near 20ft on the sets with marginal conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 08:25 PM | Comments (0)
December 21, 2005
angry ocean...again
THURSDAY...another round of large surf on the horizon as the next mammoth swell moves into our vicinity. a large storm system now moving across the pacific is nearing the dateline. a strong batch of 40+mph winds associated with the system are in a good swell window for hawaii. over the next 24hrs this storm will rapidly race east-southeast coming to within 400nm of hawaii, all the while acting on previously agitated seas. with wind speeds of near 40mph this will put a limiting factor on an otherwise ideal situation for giant surf. thursday will start off with surf near 8ft and slowly on the decline however, as the afternoon moves into the picture foreunners of the new swell should start to arrive. look for a significant boost in the surf near sundown with sets pushing near 10ft at select reefs. hazardous conditions are a reality as this swell should arrive with little loss of power and it will be mixed with leftover swell from earlier in the day. winds are looking good as they will be calm for at least the morning
Posted by megaprober at 07:52 PM | Comments (0)
December 19, 2005
power surge
TUESDAY...surf will still be giant as this long lasting northwest swell continues. buoy readings from the northwest buoy have maintained surf heights above the 15ft threshold. althought they've bounced around a bit there seems to be little evidence that the swell is dropping significantly. models from wavewatch 3 are forecasting waveheights of 15ft all the way through tomorrow morning. this seems to be the case as last night the surf at buoy 1 reached near 20ft, and then droppped slightly to 15ft today. and then went up again to 18ft as another surge seemed to occur around mid-day. power readings shot up to near 120m^2/hz this afternoon and was the most powerful reading of the winter so far and a far ahead of last night's peak recording of around 60-70m^2/hz. the intitail thought was that the swell was going to have several pulses and this seems to make sense with the buoy readings over the last 24hrs. tomorrow expect waves near 12=15ft in the morning and then a slow decline for the afternoon. winds are going to be lighter and possible swinging more east.
Posted by megaprober at 10:19 PM | Comments (0)
December 16, 2005
keep it coming
SATURDAY...surf will stay with us in the 6-8ft range with possible 10ft sets. this swell is on the way out, however another swell is right behind and will follow quickly in its predecessor's footsteps. expect surf to maintain heights of at least 6ft throughout the day as the swell will bottom out around in the wee hours of sunday morning. the current swell will drop somewhat from the early morning and condition's may deteriorate as sea breezes develop later in the afternoon. winds may even begin going southwesterly later in the day.
Posted by megaprober at 08:47 PM | Comments (0)
December 15, 2005
massive swell
RIDAY...surf is on the way as buoy 1 has just begun to climb upward in both power readings and waveheights. the next swell in a series of many to reach hawaii in the over the next few weeks is at the front door and presently started knocking. surf heights at buoy 1have shot upward and clearly indicate that swell is on the way. a fast moving storm racing close by to the north about 1000nm out generated a swell that should fill in abruptly on the north shore friday morning. due to the close proximity the should rapidly build in the morning to the 10ft range creating dangerous conditions along northern shores. there is a possibility that the swell will be semi-disorganized with surf being sloppy and with wave interference. such short travel distances generally don't allow swells to migrate into their appropriate energy bands and the result is sets with double-ups and the surf being all mixed up. the call is for abrupt swell rising in the morning out of 325deg creating dangerous conditions. consistent sets with many waves may not be uncommon. winds will be light which may help with cleaning up the swell.
friday update.
the large swell mentioned above is about to take shape.
beginning friday morning a series of low pressure areas stretching from the aleutian islands to about 800nm north of hawaii will orient in a favorable position running roughly 325deg on the compass from hawaii. winds flowing couter-clockwise around the low pressures will set up a captured fertch on the southwest quadrants and winds will then flow in line over an area of open ocean running roughly 2700nm. in terms of of swell production this is about the best candidate for large and consistent swells. although winds along the track will fluctuate over the time of a couple of days the swell production will be at a maximum. the line of fetch is modeled to sit over the same area of water for almost three days and with winds acting on previously agitated waters, the frictional component between winds and water only increases (basically winds "grabs"the ocean surface easier).
from friday until sunday morning the winds will remain at fairly moderate levels with speeds fluctuating between 25-40mph with select pockets of wind areas reaching 50mph. this will generated a rough open ocean surface with mixed swell heights en route to hawaii. on sunday the whole package comes together as the main center area of low pressure moves northeast of hawaii and the winds strengthen as the pressure gradients increase. this area of increased winds will form on the southwest quadrant as it races in the direction of hawaii coming to within less than 200nm and possibly even reaching hawaii. these winds wil lact on the previously agitated ocean surface allowing surf to build to giant levels with mixed up and stormy conditions . dangerous run ups and localized flooding may result on the north shore as rouge waves may pose a realistic threat. keep posted as the system unfolds because at present time if the wind speeds incease early on in the event surf may reach all time levels. next post will be friday 16th.
Posted by megaprober at 09:38 PM | Comments (0)
December 14, 2005
winter swell
THURSDAY...surf will continue in the 3-5ft range with possible larger sets for tomorrow as two new swells move in. the first will be a short lived episode out of the west-northwest that was caused by a fast moving system that raced north of hawaii producing a small swell out of 300deg with relatively short wave periods of 12sec. this swell will come and go by thursday afternoon. another swell on the hells of the above mentioned will fill in also during th afternoon on thursday. this swell being slightly larger will arrive out of 320deg and push surf into the 4ft range at selcet spots. this swell was the result of another storm that formed in the same vicinity of the previous system and produced swell for about 24hrs. with the winds starting to drop off conditions should improve.
very complex weather in the north pacific is about to send very large waves
the north pacific is definitely in transition and about to go full swing. a series of complex low pressure systems north and west of hawaii are no doubt going to change both weather and waves. the second in the series will disturb the surface waters in almost the entire northwest pacific. a large wave of cold air has come off of asia and looks to develop into a vigorous cold front. in the process the low pressure area will generate hawaii's first giant swell of the season.
the first storm in the series has generated a moderate swell that will arrive friday that will bring surf locally to the 10ft hawaiian size threshold. the swell associated with this system was generated as the system formed a strong batch of winds in the lower or southwestern quadrant about 1000nm of hawaii. over the last 18hrs or so the storm's winds grew well over 50mph and pushed the given fetch to within 800nm of hawaii. with the short travel distance and the strength of the winds, odds are in favor of rapidly rising surf on friday. also storm surf mayresult from the swell lacking the time and distance to clean up. friday should see dangerous surf build by early morning out of 325deg and peak in the afternoon. the outer reefs may start to break, but it is likely that surf may be slightly disorganized.
the next system in the series is modeled to be much larger and broader meaning that this will be a true winter style storm. details on this one will be posted thursday due to the lack of time i have as i feel this report needs more than forty-five minutes of time to decipher. check back on thurday evening after 9pm hawaii time for details. the result of this one may be surf aproaching the 20ft mark and stormy weather for hawaii.
Posted by megaprober at 05:46 PM | Comments (0)
December 12, 2005
calm before the storm
TUESDAY...surf will bottom out with waves coming down to the 2-3ft range with occasional 4 footers at select spots and even then that's being generous. this really should be considered the calm before the storm so to speak. large surf is on the way for later this week, but that is something to be discussed in another paragraph. high pressure has moved in north of the islands and will keep the trades blowing for another day or so. the final phase of the long lived swell episode that provided surf all weekend will come to an end with wave periods dropping to 10sec and waveheights lowering to head high. all in all a pretty mediocre day on the north shore with strong and gusty winds and small surf...only the pros can make the surf look better than it really is.
Posted by megaprober at 10:02 PM | Comments (0)
December 09, 2005
12/10
SATURDAY...waves will come down slightly for the morning as the swell peaked on friday around mid-day. surf on firday reached the 10-12ft range with a fair amount of westerly component in it. tomorrow will see the surf drop slowly. the current swell was long lived in its generation and thus will hang around for most of the day saturday. the main swath of the swell occured over a nearly 36hr span of time so it is reasonable to assume that the swell should produce for equally as long. look for 6-8ft surf in the morning and then a slow decline over the course of the day. winds are going to start calm and then build from the east creating good conditions along the northshore.
Posted by megaprober at 08:53 PM | Comments (0)
December 08, 2005
pipe masters
FRIDAY...waves are on the way as indicated by tonights buoy readings. buoy 1 has been firing all day with energy readings nearing the 40m^2/Hz mark. this basically means, i believe after much research, that in the open ocean this is a measurement of the amount of water that is lifted or moved by a wave for a given time period (wave period). so in lamen terms this swell is able to lift or move nearly 40 square meters of water per wave period (on average). so obviously the larger the swell the more water lifted. anyway with such large power readings the interpetation is that the swell is here and by the morning surf should be in the 8-10ft range with larger sets. with all the west in the swell it the pipe masters is likely a go because wind conditions will cooperate.
Thursday night update.
swell showing strongly on the northern buoys. actually the swell or the first phase of the swell jumped last night and filled in this morning with 3-5ft surf and wave periods of 14-16sec. these wave periods stayed as the primary energy readings until this evening when wave periods jumped up to 20sec. this was initially thought to be the pattern as the first phase of the swell had shorter wave periods and was quickly overun by the much larger swell right on its heels. look for 10-12ft surf or friday as the new swell should be in full force by noon.
Posted by megaprober at 08:56 PM | Comments (0)
December 07, 2005
big friday
THURSDAY...large swell is on the horizon, but so far there is nothing banging on the front door. all the sentries are reporting minor distrubences on the forefront so for at least the morning surf should stay relatively small. the northwest buoy is showing minimal energy and the waimea buoy is showing only minor windswell wraping around kahuku point. models are showing an early phase of the new swell on the way to begin hitting buoy 1 shortly after mid-night. if this is the case then the morning could see a new west-northwest swell building into the 3-5ft range by mid-afternoon. the next large west-northwest swell will not come in full force until after mid-night tomorrow night, however late afternoon could see forerunners in the longer wave periods of 18-22sec. winds will be brisk and tradelike for the day so the northshore proper should be the call.
surf to be on the increase for the next few days as a winter style storm northwest of hawaii has sent the goods.
a powerful storm formed over the weekend off of japan and generated a northwest swell that will affect hawaiian shores as early as late afternoon thursday. the first pulse of the storm happened in the far western north pacific on saturday and as the system came off of japan it rapidly intensified and sent an initail swell that should start to ping the the northwest buoy by midnight on wedneday and fill in locally on thursday. surf should start out the day thursday with a building episode that should peak around mid-afternoon with sets reaching 6ft on the local scale. this phase of the swell, however, will be masked by friday as the a much larger episode begins to fill in.
the system moved across the pacific toward the date line and winds regenerated around the southwestern quadrant and sent a new swell that will push surf locally to near warning levels. due to the closer proximity to the islands and that the storm generated new surf from previously agitated waters the result will be surf pushing to near 12ft with occasional higher sets. buoy 1 will need monitoring to discern whether the new phase of the swell will build to warning levels. for now the call is for thursday to build to the 4-6ft range by late afternoon and then later in the night the second round of swell should be on the front door of the islands. the second swell will arrive out of 315deg with intitail wave periods in the 18-22sec energy bands. by friday swell periods will move to the 14-17sec energy bands and surf will build by mid-day to the 10-12ft range with possibly larger sets. winds will be trades so the north shore proper will be smoother than it has been for the last few weeks. next update thursday night.
Posted by megaprober at 08:25 PM | Comments (0)
December 05, 2005
12/6
TUESDAY...surf to drop quickly for tomorrow although the term drop is refering to the surf becoming more manageable. the large northwest swell that came crashing ashore today producing surf in the 10-12ft range with pulses nearing the 15ft mark started pinging buoy 1 last night and by 10pm power readings went up 4X. power readings remained near the 45 mark for most of the morning which tranlated into the rapid rise in surf today. becuase the storm was relatively close to the islands and the storm's duration of swell production was less than 14hrs it can be assumed that the swell should drop fairly quickly tomorrow as the day wears on. look for surf to be in the 6-8ft range in the morning and drop into the 4-6ft range by late in the day. conditions should clean up as there will be light trades combine with the latter part of the swell which generally exhibits better organization.
Posted by megaprober at 09:46 PM | Comments (0)
December 04, 2005
rising surf
MONDAY...large surf on the way as buoy 1 has already gone off. the forerunners of a new swell were surfed by yours truly in the afternoon sunday. the swell was slowly building out of the northwest and should really start to hit later this evening. by morning surf should be in the 10-12ft range with possible larger sets at select spots. the power reading from buoy 1 which topped out near 50 is a good indicator that this swell will be good sized. waveheights at buoy 1 have leveled off at 15ft and given the travel distance from there i generally subtract a couple of feet for waveheights here. the call is for large surf peaking sometime during the day monday with light winds possible going variable.
Posted by megaprober at 08:11 PM | Comments (0)
December 02, 2005
epic surf
SATURDAY...surf should be epic tomorrow as everything we as average surfers could want is in place. light winds and two swells that will light up all the reefs ranging from west facing reefs to the north favored reefs. the west-northwest swell will peak tomorrow in the solid 4-6ft range with larger sets and the current north-northeast swell will stick around at 3-5ft for the most of the day. winds are light and variables and will be absent for the morning. if tomorrow can top friday's epic surf we will all score on all three sides of the island.
Posted by megaprober at 11:52 PM | Comments (0)
December 01, 2005
waves
FRIDAY...surf is going up again as both a west-northwest and north swell combine forces on the north shore. the west-northwest swell is currently pinging buoy 1 as of this writing and by morning should provide solid 3-5ft surf on the west facing reefs. the swell will arrive out 295-305deg which for west facing reefs means good size with the 14-16sec wave periods. waves should push to the 6ft range by the afternoon. another round of north swell will fill in as well arriving out of 010deg with surf building to the 3-5ft range. these two swells shoulf provide ample surf around the island and help spread the crowds...especially with the light winds.
Posted by megaprober at 07:43 PM | Comments (0)