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December 15, 2005
massive swell
RIDAY...surf is on the way as buoy 1 has just begun to climb upward in both power readings and waveheights. the next swell in a series of many to reach hawaii in the over the next few weeks is at the front door and presently started knocking. surf heights at buoy 1have shot upward and clearly indicate that swell is on the way. a fast moving storm racing close by to the north about 1000nm out generated a swell that should fill in abruptly on the north shore friday morning. due to the close proximity the should rapidly build in the morning to the 10ft range creating dangerous conditions along northern shores. there is a possibility that the swell will be semi-disorganized with surf being sloppy and with wave interference. such short travel distances generally don't allow swells to migrate into their appropriate energy bands and the result is sets with double-ups and the surf being all mixed up. the call is for abrupt swell rising in the morning out of 325deg creating dangerous conditions. consistent sets with many waves may not be uncommon. winds will be light which may help with cleaning up the swell.
friday update.
the large swell mentioned above is about to take shape.
beginning friday morning a series of low pressure areas stretching from the aleutian islands to about 800nm north of hawaii will orient in a favorable position running roughly 325deg on the compass from hawaii. winds flowing couter-clockwise around the low pressures will set up a captured fertch on the southwest quadrants and winds will then flow in line over an area of open ocean running roughly 2700nm. in terms of of swell production this is about the best candidate for large and consistent swells. although winds along the track will fluctuate over the time of a couple of days the swell production will be at a maximum. the line of fetch is modeled to sit over the same area of water for almost three days and with winds acting on previously agitated waters, the frictional component between winds and water only increases (basically winds "grabs"the ocean surface easier).
from friday until sunday morning the winds will remain at fairly moderate levels with speeds fluctuating between 25-40mph with select pockets of wind areas reaching 50mph. this will generated a rough open ocean surface with mixed swell heights en route to hawaii. on sunday the whole package comes together as the main center area of low pressure moves northeast of hawaii and the winds strengthen as the pressure gradients increase. this area of increased winds will form on the southwest quadrant as it races in the direction of hawaii coming to within less than 200nm and possibly even reaching hawaii. these winds wil lact on the previously agitated ocean surface allowing surf to build to giant levels with mixed up and stormy conditions . dangerous run ups and localized flooding may result on the north shore as rouge waves may pose a realistic threat. keep posted as the system unfolds because at present time if the wind speeds incease early on in the event surf may reach all time levels. next post will be friday 16th.
Posted by megaprober at December 15, 2005 09:38 PM