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December 14, 2005
winter swell
THURSDAY...surf will continue in the 3-5ft range with possible larger sets for tomorrow as two new swells move in. the first will be a short lived episode out of the west-northwest that was caused by a fast moving system that raced north of hawaii producing a small swell out of 300deg with relatively short wave periods of 12sec. this swell will come and go by thursday afternoon. another swell on the hells of the above mentioned will fill in also during th afternoon on thursday. this swell being slightly larger will arrive out of 320deg and push surf into the 4ft range at selcet spots. this swell was the result of another storm that formed in the same vicinity of the previous system and produced swell for about 24hrs. with the winds starting to drop off conditions should improve.
very complex weather in the north pacific is about to send very large waves
the north pacific is definitely in transition and about to go full swing. a series of complex low pressure systems north and west of hawaii are no doubt going to change both weather and waves. the second in the series will disturb the surface waters in almost the entire northwest pacific. a large wave of cold air has come off of asia and looks to develop into a vigorous cold front. in the process the low pressure area will generate hawaii's first giant swell of the season.
the first storm in the series has generated a moderate swell that will arrive friday that will bring surf locally to the 10ft hawaiian size threshold. the swell associated with this system was generated as the system formed a strong batch of winds in the lower or southwestern quadrant about 1000nm of hawaii. over the last 18hrs or so the storm's winds grew well over 50mph and pushed the given fetch to within 800nm of hawaii. with the short travel distance and the strength of the winds, odds are in favor of rapidly rising surf on friday. also storm surf mayresult from the swell lacking the time and distance to clean up. friday should see dangerous surf build by early morning out of 325deg and peak in the afternoon. the outer reefs may start to break, but it is likely that surf may be slightly disorganized.
the next system in the series is modeled to be much larger and broader meaning that this will be a true winter style storm. details on this one will be posted thursday due to the lack of time i have as i feel this report needs more than forty-five minutes of time to decipher. check back on thurday evening after 9pm hawaii time for details. the result of this one may be surf aproaching the 20ft mark and stormy weather for hawaii.
Posted by megaprober at December 14, 2005 05:46 PM