January 17, 2006
maxed out
WEDNESDAY... dropping swell on northern shores as the current northwest swell moves on its way out. bouy 1 appears to have peaked around mid-morning with swell heights near 12ft. with the given travel time of roughly 8 hours the swell will have likely peaked this afternoon here on oahu. the waimea buoy is in sync with this and wave heights there peaked early this evening in the 10ft range. open ocean heights of 10ft at the waimea buoy generally will produce surf locally in the 10-12ft catagory which as a rule will max out most all the major surf spots and leave waimea bay small and crowded. depending on wave periods and tides a select few of the outer reefs will break albiet mushy and really only "capping". surf looks to decline back to the 6-8ft range for tomorrow although most of the normal spots will be maxed in the morning by the afternoon some of the smaller waves may start to take shape. the call is for maxed out 8-10ft surf in the morning backing off to 6-8ft with select spots becoming surfable again.
Posted by megaprober at 09:53 PM | Comments (0)
January 14, 2006
sunday 1/15
SUNDAY...surf will be on the way up on sunday as a new west-northwest swell starts to fill in later in the day. the new swell will most likely not begin affecting shorelines locally until near sundown when the swell arrives out of 315deg. models are not showing much in the way of energy passing under buoy until at least mid-day so the trend should be that only foreunners of the swell will make anything ridable by sundown. surf should start to rise withb sets near 4ft by sundown. for most of the day surf will be weak out of the northwest from the last phase of the current swell. trades should be blowing so expect some texture.
Posted by megaprober at 09:29 PM | Comments (0)
January 12, 2006
wind swell takes over
FRIDAY...swell to drop by tomorrow as the northwest swell seems to have lost significant power as shown by the latest buoy readings. the primary swell registering on both buoy 1 and the waimea buoy is now easterly tradewind swell. as a rule most northwesterly swells will register more power on buoys than any wind generated swell. although the tradewind swell has jumped significantly over the course of the day, any strong ground swell should maintain priority. the call therefore is a dropping northwest ground swell in the 2-3 occ 4ft range and possible wrappage from the easterly tradewind swell. because the tradewind swell is almost striaght east, i'm guessing that there will only be select reefs that pick it up so don't expect much. winds are scheduled to howl for friday.
Posted by megaprober at 09:13 PM | Comments (0)
January 10, 2006
west swell
WEDNESDAY...surf is on the way up as a new swell is already upon us. buoy 1 has started to increase in all the neccessary catagories and in particular is showing very long period energy in the 17-22sec bands. this is typical fashion announcing the arrival of a new ground swell. the culprit was a strong fast moving system that lived and passed relatively quickly in terms of storm life. this system packed a powerful punch with near hurricane force winds late saturday into sunday and then dissapated. as the system deepend rapidly it spun in a tight knit unit only allowing a moderate fetch of around 600nm to form. with the given travel distance of roughly 2200nm this allowed the swell trains to arrange themselves in periods of similar frequency. in simple terms that translates into the larger swell periods moving out in front of the pack because they travel faster. tomorrow will see the swell periods shorten to 14-17sec as the main swath of energy moves in out of 290-312deg. west facing reefs will definitely pick this swell up as in terms of north swells this one is about as west as they get. because of this factor oahu may see slightly smaller waveheights due the shadowing effects of kauai and niihau...which is on the other hand is good news for the big island. look for surf in the 6-8ft solid range in the morning with a possible drop in the swell by the afternoon. expect some winds on the water as the trades are stubborn and do not want to go away.
Posted by megaprober at 05:42 PM | Comments (0)
January 09, 2006
jocko's
finally decided it was time for jocko's. this wave, in my opinion, will make you want to retire from surfing if you are out on the wrong day. i've been fairly lucky at jocko's as i eyeball it very speculatively before attempting a session out there. the current is a restless beast that does nothing to improve your posistion as set of the day is approaching and the waves will beat you senseless. the bottom line is you need confidence and strength to surf this spot and you just might have a little fun...otherwise you'll be scampering and whimpering as you get drilled. anyway i felt it was a good size to test myself and see what i was made of. did all the swims at makapu'u on rough days and lack of alchohol and endless paddling at select outer reefs allow me to actually enjoy myself? waves were 4-5ft and coming deep and wide. the current was there as i remembered it and just for kicks i surfed it on a board that was too small. the result for me was some late mean drops and lots of swirly surfing as the wave is too much for a tiny 6'3". i was stoked to have it alone for the first hour and the time allowed me to establish some rhythm. i went on some waves i thought i'd go down on and made them and just to be sure i swam in against the current to see what it's like. as i know that today was small and playful and others are sketchy and violent, i feel that i may put jocko's back on my list of possibilities and this time i'll mean it.
TUESDAY...another day of windy surf in paradise as the trade continue to howl. look for the surf to drop slightly further and swing more notherly as this episode fizzles. the strong trades will allow for some small wrappage at select north favoring reef. the call is for surf in the 2-4ft range with fair conditions and possibly minor heads in the lineup.
Posted by megaprober at 10:08 PM | Comments (0)
January 08, 2006
nothing to spactacular
surfed saturday at a spot generally reserved for large west swell days complete with fear. this day however it was small and playful and from the north. waves would pop up and peel along an old river channel for a good 50 yards on the good ones. small and fun with the usual current.
MONDAY...surf will remain moderate for the start of the week as the current west-northwest swell will continue sending surf for most of the day. surf will start out in the 3-5ft range with a relatively strong westerly angle and slowly start swinging more northwesterly. as the day progresses surf will start to fade slightly and drop off to the 4ft range at most locations. winds will be blowing from the northeast as they have been making for marginal conditions at best. all in all a typical winter day...nothing too great nothing too poor. its better than most other places in the world nevertheless.
Posted by megaprober at 08:57 PM | Comments (0)
January 06, 2006
back in the saddle
SATURDAY...conditions have changed greatly since my last upday nearly a week ago...guess that's what happens when the family comes to town after eight years. things are looking winds and wintery. actually these conditions are more commonly found in november not it january. surf will be coming form a variety of directions on the north shore for saturday. a new west-northwest swell should start to show very late in the day with long period swell in the 17-22sec energy bands. waves should build later in the day reaching a solid 4ft at select west favoring reefs. the northwest swell should be on the way down most of the day and surf will start out in the 3-5ft range in the morning and be on the decline. there is also a slight chance for random head high sets from the north-northeast, but given the blustery winds this swell will most likely go unnoticed. look for 3-5ft surf with windy side-offshore conditions with the swell progressing more westerly as the day goes on with the arrival of a new west-northwest swell.
Posted by megaprober at 09:29 PM | Comments (0)