March 30, 2006
3/31
FRIDAY...surf along northern shores of the islands will continue to see waves in the 3-5ft range for at least the beginning of th day. a small batch of winds just north of the islands is pushing a small swell missing hawaii to the west. the readings on buoy 1 are very misleading because energy there looks like a typical north swell with amplified energy readings and periods. however, a closer look will reveal that buoy 1 lies in a more favorable posistion for surf from the batch of winds 500nm or north of the islands. most likely, the way the swell is traveling (southwest), the western hawaiian islands are probably seeing larger waveheights. that being said expect waves to drop on northern shores due to the winds diminishing north of the islands. surf will be in the 3-4ft range tomorrow with north facing reefs being more favorable. along southern shores a small pulse from the south should start to show by saturday. buoy 28 readings as of this writing are not showing much...an when south swells are on time or later they are indicating that the waves are smaller than originally predicted as larger swells travel faster.
Posted by megaprober at 08:33 PM | Comments (0)
March 26, 2006
murky water
MONDAY...surf will drop further as there is little in the way of swell on the way. monday may well be the last day of ridable waves on the north shore for a few days possibly until next week. there is another swell on the way so don't panic, just that swell is a good five days away. for monday look for a continued drop in the current northerly swell. buoy readings as well as wavewatch 3 charts are showing less energy and lower waveheights. with all the rain coming tonight and tomorrow its probably just as good anyway. murky water is now everywhere so be smart and stay out.
Posted by megaprober at 08:15 PM | Comments (0)
murky water
MONDAY...surf will drop further as there is little in the way of swell on the way. monday may well be the last day of ridable waves on the north shore for a few days possibly until next week. there is another swell on the way so don't panic, just that swell is a good five days away. for monday look for a continued drop in the current northerly swell. buoy readings as well as wavewatch 3 charts are showing less energy and lower waveheights. with all the rain coming tonight and tomorrow its probably just as good anyway. murky water is now everywhere so be smart and stay out.
Posted by megaprober at 08:15 PM | Comments (0)
sunday
stormy and more stormy weather on the way. surfed saturday with a couple good friends at a favorite out of the way spot. was having a blast, but on my second or third waves snapped my leash and had to sprint to get the board. eneded up going back out with a gargantuan leash on my short board and i felt like i was towing an anchor.
waves are 2-4ft today out of the north and am going to have another go at it. very large storm coming at the islands...could be interesting.
Posted by megaprober at 11:45 AM | Comments (0)
March 24, 2006
shearlines
SATURDAY...surf will be on the way up for saturday. reliable sources out in the wild confirmed suspicions that waves may roll through over the weekend. recent buoy checks also look favoring as buoy 1 and the waimea buoy are showing a general rise in surf heights and power. the call is for surf in the 2-4ft range with possible larger sets at select spots. winds may be good or not depending on the arrival of various front shearlines that keep devoloping.
Posted by megaprober at 09:29 PM | Comments (0)
March 23, 2006
tornado
FRIDAY...welcome to crazy thursday where a tornado watch was issued for the island of lanai this evening. also, this evening was complete with thunder and more thunder that actually kept me a good distance from my computer. surf for friday will be miniscule as a small west-northwest swell keeps the waves just above the flat catagory. a very low energy low frequencey swell from the far western north pacific will provide some small surf at places like rockies or small boneyards. anything that picks up west swell may have a few small waist high hittables here and there...otherwise weird weather and gnarly runoff should keep most spots fairly vacant.
Posted by megaprober at 11:02 PM | Comments (0)
March 20, 2006
good stuff
MONDAY...surf will be near the 5ft range for the start of the day with good to epic conditions as there is no wind. i don't know what else to say. again north shore 3-5ft with larger sets. secret...been montoring buoy 1 all day and as of this posting the power and wavehieghts there are the largest i've seen yet. swell straight out of the north and possibly another swell cloaking in beneath the forecated one. should be worth the trip tomorrow...bummed i cant't go.
Posted by megaprober at 08:59 PM | Comments (0)
March 18, 2006
sunday the 19th
SUNDAY...surf will come up as a new northwest swell starts to fill in. a storm system set in the far northwestern pacific wednesday into thursday. the system formed off the coast of northern japan and spun quickly northeast toward the aleutian islands and intesified. the system then sat stationary for most of thursday while the system deepened. winds of near 50mph set up over a captured fetch of nearly 700nm which should prove strong enough to produce a moderate swell arriving sunday. as of this writing ghost imaging of the swell is starting to apprear on the buoy one swell spectrum in the long period energy bands. these are likely the first waves of the swell. tomorrow should see waves start off small and then build to near 4ft by the afternoon. the swell will arrive out 305-325deg with initial energy near 17sec. as the swell fills in primary energy should move in the 14-16sec energy bands. winds will be favorable for shorelines other than the south shore.
Posted by megaprober at 08:48 PM | Comments (0)
March 17, 2006
st. patty's day
SATURDAY...small waves for saturday as there will be a break between swells. the north shore will hang in there with shoulder high waves at select spots that favor westerly swell. the last phase of a long lived west-northwest swell that originated in the far western pacific wil keep waves in the sporadic 2ft range for at least the beginning of the day, althougth waves will become less frequent as the day wears on. on southern shores there will be small 2ft surf from a long period swell that will also be on its way out. this storm was moderate system that agitated the tasman sea enough to send a small bump over the last few days. due to an array of complex factors, swells from these regions are generally hit and miss and almost always inconsistent. have a good st. patty's day and leave the dawny for those that really need to get out of the house.
Posted by megaprober at 06:47 PM | Comments (0)
March 15, 2006
3/16
THURSDAY...waves still on the way down as the recent northwest swell is on its way out. another new pulse out of the west-northwest is on the horizon so waves are likely to start filing in later in the day. the next swell will bring surf back up to slightly overhead levels and with the westerly component in it select reefs may see some waves near the 4ft range. the pulse in the surf is the continuence of a long-lived episode that brought surf along northern shores over the last few days. due to the swell's long travel distance wave trains were allowed ample time to spread out over time thus making the swell last a bit longer. the swell will peak tomorrow afternoon or early evevning and then be on the way out by friday. winds should be favorable as they are next to nil.
Posted by megaprober at 08:00 PM | Comments (0)
March 14, 2006
moon shining
WEDNESDAY...not much energy is showing up on buoy 1 or the waimea buoy. any swell that arrived yesturday is definitely on the way out and by the looks of it there should head high surf at best for most spots along northern shores. easterly swell will likely be diminishing as well due to the lack of trades both locally and upstream. winds may back off slightly as well for the day as the passing of the front moves down the island chain. tonight the full moon was shining on oahu indicating that the first of what may be a series of cold fronts has passed and that there may be a moment ot two of sun tomorrow. the call is for small surf island wide with mediocre conditions at best.
Posted by megaprober at 10:39 PM | Comments (0)
March 13, 2006
chocolate waty
TUESDAY...surf is going to come up on northern shores as a new northwest swell fills in later tonight. buoy 1 is showing signs of energy as of this writing and models are pointing to a rise in open ocean hights of near 4ft. a storm formed far to the north and west late friday night and into saturday near the kamchatka islands. the system moved east-northeast and hugged the aleutian islands and as it did a captured fetch was set up. at its strongest point open ocean waveheights of near 25 maxed out on sunday. with the travel distance of over 2000nm and only moderate swell heights this swell will be relatively small by north shore standard. the call is for surf to build overnight to the 3-5ft range out of 325deg with some larger sets at select spots. winds will likely be dropping as yet another front moves through so expect rain and more chocolate waty.
Posted by megaprober at 07:37 PM | Comments (0)
March 10, 2006
runoff
SATURDAY...surf will come up again on northern shores as a new northwest swell arrives later tomorrow bringing surf up to the 5ft range at select spots. the new swell will be a welcome change from all the north swells we've had of late with more of the usual spots doing their thing. the swell will arrive out 325deg with larger wave periods than those of our past north swells so amplification will play a role at select reefs. with all the south shore spots breaking it will be a good be that many won't want to drive nor will they want to get we if it is still raining. a good jump can be seen on the kewalo wave platform with surf bumping up to a solid 3ft. waves registering here of this size is indicative that there are 4ft sets roaming the southern shore. good luck with all the runoff in the lineup.
Posted by megaprober at 06:04 PM | Comments (0)
March 08, 2006
rebound
THURSDAY...surf will start to rebound from the recent doldrums of the last few days. a new north swell should start to fill later in the day bringing surf from waist high and weak to head high with some juice on both shores. the swells will start to affect shores locally later in the afternoon and arrive with sets in the solid 3ft range with possible larger sets at select spots. the swell will be minimal by north shore standards, but it will be something nonetheless. southern shores are due to build over the next few days. the equatorial buoy is starting to show some signs of swell with a gradual rise in waveheights and periods. the call is for a small start to the day with quick rise in surf along the north shore to the head high range. southern shores may see some forerunners of the new southy, but i would hardly drive madly from work to catch it.
Posted by megaprober at 09:31 PM | Comments (0)
March 06, 2006
small surf
TUESDAY...small bump coming from the north-northeast over the next 24hrs. buoys are not showing any signs of the swell so the call is for small surf around the island. the south swell that arrived over the weekend will on its way out still providing some shoulder high waves at select spots. easterly swell should be minimal for the morning as there has been light winds for the last day or so and there is nothing worthy upstream of the islands. northern shores may have ome background energy at select spots, but hardly anything to get excited about. later in the day with some luck the north-norteast sell may start to fil in along northern shores to offer some relief. winds should be ok for the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 09:35 PM | Comments (0)
March 05, 2006
riding couches
SUNDAY...update. surf is 2-3ft on northern shores with a small building swell out of the northwest. winds are on it and surf is ridable. here'e the options. small town packed with weekend warriors on couch sized surfboards that lack common sense or head high county with short paddles and more waves. the choice is yours
Posted by megaprober at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)
March 02, 2006
3/3
FRIDAY...surf coming back up from the north-northeast once again as a new swell moves in. then next swell in a series of many that have affected the north and east shores of the islands over the last week or so should fill in slightly overnight and greet dawn patrollers with 4-6ft surf out of the north-northeast. buoys are showing long period swell from this direction and with the current trend remaining steady surf should stay at least at the heights that were observerd today. the long period nature of this swell will assist in amplifying breakers at select reefs. waves of double the open ocean heights are possible at spots that are partial to north swells and are known to be "the" spot on swells such as these. on southern shores a newly building south swell should start to fill in tomorrow with waves being seen by nightfall. the equatorial buoy is showing good indications that this swell will be for real as both waveheights and energy have been on the rise all day. look for the main swath to fill in by saturday with this swell. winds seem light as of this writing, but this may not be the case in the AM.
Posted by megaprober at 09:42 PM | Comments (0)
March 01, 2006
last day for kirra
THUSDAY...surf to be on the decline for thursday. the current north-northeast swell has likely peaked or will peak overnight and be on the way down by tomorrow. the system associated with the storm was northeast of hawaii moving south-southeast. although this isn't bad for wave production, storms sending swell from theses parts are generally quick to dissipate. the swell periods showing up now are in the larger spectrum which is indicative that these waves were made further out than the previous day's wave activity. these longer swell periods will help the swell make it around kahuku point and feel the north shore reefs more effectively. tomorrow should see waves of 3-5ft at select spots with rocky's through rockpile locking like one big long kirra. the swell will become less frequent and smaller as the day wears on. winds are anybodies guess as the storm system that's been hanging around the last few days is still there and moving closer.
drive up the east side after work today even though there was a flash flood warning. saw waterfalls in places that i'll never see them at again. the cliffs behind kualoa had plenty of waterfall...my guess is that is very rare. chocalate water plums were shooting out from the the river over there that convinced me that the flash flood statement was no joke. never have i seen such massive plumes before. finally decided to paddle out at off-the-wall...an old friend of mine. surf was fun 2-4ft and glassy. wish i has more time.
Posted by megaprober at 07:46 PM | Comments (0)