April 27, 2006
good head
went to the head for a surf as i was rudely informed of the swell the day prior. tuesday went to sandy's and noticed it as a lot bigger than it should have been and decided to look at the head as my suspicion was aroused. saw flawless lines and unususal consistency at an otherwise useless area. drove off and pounded the steering wheel and showed up to work the neaxt day with stick firm in hand.
drove to the head and dodged the 80 or so dudes riding couches at cliff and scoffed at the people practicing prison rules at the house. further east i was pounded and barreled and pounded again. one ride was the distance of at least two breaks going right and ended up all in field of coral head. was stoked and relieved and with chin up walked the path still knowing that there is a time to check the head and there is a time to deny it. choosse wisely and you'll be a whole lot happier for it.
FRIDAY...surf should still hang around on southern shores as the current south swell finally begins its slow decline. waves in the 3ft range will be the norm at the more exposed spots along southern shores with semi-light winds. trades will start to rebound in stregth by tomorrow so conditions may deteriorate as the day progresses. northern shore will bump slightly as a west-northwest swell shows pushing surf to the waist to chest high range at the largest spot. a new swell from the far northern pacific will glaze the islands and hawaii will see the western fringe of the swell that is better aimed at targets further east. all in all surf will be small by bountiful.
Posted by megaprober at 08:15 PM
April 25, 2006
sneaky southy
WEDNESDAY...surf arrived on southern shores today with consistent groundswell out of 170deg. waves near the solid 4ft range surprised many today and proof of it was the relatively empty lineup this evening. very light winds and consistent groundswell made diamond head look better than i've seen it for a few years tonight. anyway the south swell that sneaked in today will peak tonight and greet the many dawn patrolers with good conditions and solid 2-4ft surf with possible higher sets. my guess is that models are not doing a good job on this swell, so anything is possible. northern shores will drop to waist to chest high and weak. winds should be ok for the day.
Posted by megaprober at 09:05 PM
April 24, 2006
4/25
TUESDAY...surf will stick around on northern shores as the current northwest swell maintains open ocean swell heights of near 4ft. wavewatch 3 models are calling for northwest swell near 4ft for the morning with a slow decline throughout the day. recent buoy observations from both the waimea buoy and buoy 1 are confirming solid swell at both locations out of the north-northwest. the swell arrived ealier today pushing surf to near 4ft at select spots. the storm responsible for the swell formed just south of the western aleutian islands over the weekend and moved east-southeast producing a captured fetch relative to hawaii. although surf was better aimed to the east of hawaii, the islands are again receiving scraps from the western fringe. with the remote source of the swell and the long travel distance this allowed ample time for the wave trains to spread slightly thus giving the appearance of a longer lasting swell. surf will generally drop into the 2-3ft range by dusk. surf along southern shores will come up slightly out of the south-southeast. a large area of winds east of the tahitain islands has generated a swell that should hang around for the next four day or so producing swell near the head high range along southern and southeastern facing reefs. winds will be howling for one more day before slowly dropping back a bit later in the week.
Posted by megaprober at 09:43 PM
April 22, 2006
4/23
SUNDAY...surf to drop to near flat along northern shores as the waning phase of the recent north-northwest swell departs. the next swell for the north shore is due late in the night sunday and it is unlikely that foreunners of the new swell will show prior to dark. the system resposible for the next swell formed just south of the aleutian islands and was a pinch weaker than the last episode, that from reports, topped out near the 10ft threshold. waves of the new swell will max out near 6ft at the largest spots. the call is for nealy flat conditions along northern shores with some possible wrap from local windswell. southern shores will hang in there at 1-2ft at the largest spots.
surfed logs today. waves 1-2ft with sloppy conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 08:36 PM
April 20, 2006
4/21
FRIDAY...surf to drop for friday as the current north-northwest swell fades. there's a good chance that waves will rapidly decrease in size during the day friday. the main thought on this is that the swelll affecting northern shores locally is the cusp of a much larger swath of the swell. the main fetch of the swell was better aimed at north america and hawaii was on the remote western edge, therefore hawaii is likely to see a sudden drop in the swell. with most of the energy to the east all but the largest of the set waves will radiate enough to hawaii. the call is for surf to 3-5ft max in the morning with surf dropping into the 2-3ft range with the odd four footer. winds will be trades as they were today. choppy conditions will rule.
Posted by megaprober at 09:20 PM
April 18, 2006
north swell
WEDNESDAY...surf will begin to rise out of the north-northwest as a new swell starts to fill in. a broad storm formed over the bearing sea on sunday and moved southeast over the aleutian islands and into the north pacific. as it did a wide area of winds in excess of 40mph blew over a 600-800nm area of ocean roughly straight north of the islands. the fetch was better aimed at the california coast, however due to angular dispersal hawaii should get its share as the western area of the swath glances the islands from 340-360deg. surf should start to rise by mid-afternoon on wednesday and reach 5ft on the sets at select north favoring reefs. winds will be blowing from the northeasterly direction as they have been all week.
Posted by megaprober at 08:18 PM
April 17, 2006
nothing yet
TUESDAY...small surf along the north shore as a small north swell peters out. a small northerly swell that is the final phase from a system off the west coast of north america will stick around tomorrow and keep the surf just above the flat catagory. windward shores will likely top the list as the trades have provided some relief in the form of windswell. the good news is that a strong north-northwesterly swell is en-route as of this writing and should begin to arrive locally during the afternoon wednesday, but that will be for tomorrow's forecast.
Posted by megaprober at 08:55 PM
April 15, 2006
4/16
SUNDAY...waves will drop on the north shore and any thing that does come through will likely be windswell wrap. swell is supposed to be filling in on the south shore, but buoy readings are not showing anything so my opinion is don't count on that one. all in all look for windswell spots that take the wrap. winds are going to be howling so take that into account.
Posted by megaprober at 09:34 PM
April 13, 2006
4/14
FRIDAY...surf is looking to bump up from both the west-northwest and the north-northeast. at current time the buoys are showing very little of either swell, but with the cranking winds right now low energy ground swell will certainly be masked. north-northeast swell will not be indicated by buoy 1 as it does not lie upstream from that swell direction, therefore the waimea buoy needs monitoring. back in the days we had the molokai buoy, but that has been out of commision for years. the west-northwest swell will likely not show until the afternoon as it is travelling from a very remote source and may be smaller than originally predicted. the call is for small surf early in the day with rising north-norteast swell early on with sets appraching the 5ft mark. later the west-northwest swell should start to show with sets near in the 3ft range. also of mention is a south-southwest swell that is due to arrive late in the day out 212deg. this direction means that the source of the swell is the tasman sea and generally swells from this region are very difficult to predict due to the many south pacific islands that are in our line of site.
Posted by megaprober at 09:21 PM
April 11, 2006
4/12
WEDNESDAY...strong and gusty tradewinds are going to rule the day tomorrow. a large area of high pressure to the north combined with a low pressure to the south of the islands is allowing for a steep pressure gradient over the islands. winds will actually incease slightly more overnight tonight into wednesday. theses strong winds will help boost the windswell locally to near advisary levels. look for solid near 5ft local style surf battering windward shorelines with some possible wrap along northern and southern shores at areas the pick up easterly swell. winds will be nearly as strong as they get out of the east-northeast.
Posted by megaprober at 08:47 PM
April 10, 2006
windy conditions
TUESDAY...windy conditions and tradeswell will top the list for the day for tuesday. a large area of high pressure dominates the central north pacific which in turn is making the tradewinds locally crank. this high pressure looks to stay in place for at least the next couple of days so the winds should hang around. the strong trades have resulted in agitated seas that are bordering on advisary level surf. if the winds continue to blow, a high surf advisary will be issued for eastern shores. northern shores will see the last gasp of swell out of the west-northwest that arrived on sunday. surf should still remain near head high for at least the beginning of the day tuesday. winds will be a factor for the day.
Posted by megaprober at 10:56 PM
April 06, 2006
4/7
FRIDAY...surf will drop into the 2-3ft range with some leftovers from the recent episode out of the west-northwest. because the swell is fairly long-lived there should be something around to ride when the sun rises tomorrow. waves will peter out for most of the day until a reinforcement arrives late in the day with foreunner from the next episode. another system formed in a similar region of the far northwestern pacific and the first sets should start to reach hawaii near sundown. long period swell of near 20sec will start to amplify on select west favoring reefs and there wil likely be some surprise sets late in the day near the 3ft range. winds will be trades similar to what was around today.
Posted by megaprober at 06:55 PM
April 04, 2006
waves
WEDNESDAY...surf on the way up as wednesday finally produces some real surf. as of this writing buoy 1 has started firing with waveheights, wave periods and power reading moving up the charts. a new west-northwest swell will build overnight and greet morning surfers with solid 5ft surf out of 300deg with larger sets at select west favoring reefs. a good sized storm of the coast of japan is providing the goods with near 50mph winds and initial seas near 35ft. the given three day travel time will produce a solid 6ft swell here in hawaii with good conditions as the trades will be blowing. get on it while you can as there will less and less waves in the next few months and you'll be forced to surf the south shore.
Posted by megaprober at 10:24 PM
April 03, 2006
new swell on the way
TUESDAY...small surf along northern shores once again as the last day a small surf that has plagued the north shore for nearly a month winds down. the jet stream in the north pacific has finally made its way to a more favorable position for wave production in the northwest pacific. a large southward dip in the jetstream has moved east off the coast of northern japan and created the first powerful storm in that area of the pacific in quite sometime. beginning about the first of april a large gale set up off northern japan and moved east over the far northwestern pacific. as it did a captured fetch set up and a strong batch of winds near 50mph was able to stay in place over three days. the result was agitated seas that approched 35ft as open ocean swell aimed more less in the direrection of hawaii. given the travel time and distance the swell, when it does reach hawaii, will be a nice well groomed 6-8ft west-northwest swell. waves are due to start focusing on northern shores starting late tomorrow with forerunners in the 18-22sec period energy bands. surf will start to bump up and reefs that amplify west swell should start to see sets overhead near nightfall and much larger waves by morning. the call if for small weak surf most of the day with a noticable bump near dusk. winds will be trades so the usual spots should start to crank by wednesday.
Posted by megaprober at 08:36 PM
April 01, 2006
4/1
SATURDAY...surf droppping along northern shores as the area of winds north of the islands dissapates. as there are no reinforecements on the immediate horizon out of the north pacific northern shores will drop to head high on the sets at the largest spots out of the north-northeast. a new swell is forecasted to arrive on southern shores locally. buoy 2 forecasts are showing swell arrival later in the afternoon, therefore the main swath of the swell may move in later saturday night on souther shore lines. given the incredible floods of today friday, march 21st, water quality will worse than it has all month so my real forecast is do something else besides surf.
Posted by megaprober at 12:48 PM