May 31, 2006
b-day
THURSDAY...surf will start to rise along southern shores as the swell continues along southern shores. waves may come up a notch a more energy begins to fill in. models are showing flucuations in waveheights at buoy to which will translate into a small pulse along southern shores. when models show these numbers jumping around on south swells, there is a tendancy to take these with a grain of salt. best guess is that surf will come up to head high or slightly higher depending on the tide. small easterly swell will continue along windward shores offering some relief. trades at normal speeds.
Posted by megaprober at 06:14 PM
May 25, 2006
5/26
FRIDAY...surf will be on a downward trend along northern shores. the current north-northeast swell has peaked and will be on the way out. the system associated with the swell was both far away and in an unfavorable position in regards to hawaii. in a nutshell, hawaii received the western perimeter of the main swath due to angualr dipersal. the storm located off the west coast of north america was aimed far better for the west caost. southern shores, locally, are in a transition period with one swell out and another one in. the next swell should start to show around mid-day friday and build throuhout the day and into saturday. this swell was generated just east of new zealand by a storm system that moved northeast, favorable to hawaii, about five days ago. the system was moderate in strength in terms of south pacific storms and the only real influential part of the system was the northeastward motion toward hawaii. surf will build to the 3ft range by nightfall with slightly larger sets on reefs that dig refraction with the larger wave periods. the low tide saturday will be favorable to select reefs that are usually mushy. watch out for afternoon mush as winds will be light for one more day.
Posted by megaprober at 10:06 PM
May 23, 2006
5/23
WEDNESDAY...surf will hang in the 2-3ft range along southern shores as the current south swell starts to slowly decline. recent buoy observations are indicating that the swell has peaked. the equatorial buoy did however maintain energy for well over two days so there's no reason to think that the swell doesn't have another day left in it. buoy 2 observations are still showing significant energy thus this will equate into decent surf for the morning. a northeast swell has moved in relatively obscured as most attention went to the south swell. surf along eastern shores should remain in the 2-3 occ 4ft range. winds should be good in the morning as they will be absent
Posted by megaprober at 10:07 PM
May 22, 2006
5/23
TUESDAY...surf will peak overnight along southern shores as the current south swell fills in. recent buoy reports show a significant increase in energy from readings observed this morning. buoy observations from the equatorial buoy displayed a distinct rise/fall episode that peaked over a day ago. energy registered there was indictive of a powerful southerly swell that had the swath been better aimed toward hawaii, we surely would have seen surf cross advisary levels. wavewatch 3 models show the episode peaking late tonight at buoy 2, thus peaking locally in the wee-hours of the morning. if you have the opportunity to surf tomorrow a dawn patrol would not be ill advised. the call is for surf in the 3-4ft range with the odd bigger set. conditions will be complimented with light
Posted by megaprober at 08:01 PM
May 18, 2006
5/18
FRIDAY...surf to continue on northern shores out of the north-northeast. the current swell has seems to be holding steady with groundswell power readings. the wavewatch models show a quick spurt of energy later tonight into tomorrow morning. whether or not this is accurate remains to be seen. best guess is that the there will be some sort of bump along northern shores tonight and waves will be slightly bigger than they were today. the system associated with the swell is fairly close and to be honest i have not been watching close enougth to make the call. one thing is for sure is that north swells this time of year are generally weak and unpredicable. winds should be blowing from the east northeast.
Posted by megaprober at 09:45 PM
May 15, 2006
makapu'u big wave
went to makapu'u today after work. just sort of went to get come 'cise. noticed there was a significant amount of waves action coming through to the beach along waimanalo. then noticed some white water near the ears and knew that something was askew. got to the beach and that north swell was just funneling into the bay. got the fins and went out and was quickly aware that the waves had some punch.
when maks has swell waves as opposed to wind waves the beach breaks with serious power and size. sandy's just condenses and unloads where as makapu'u just grows. anyway backed off on a few and finally went on medium sized one...large barrel and still not that steep. got a few more and slowly worked up to get some balls for a set wave. sets were so frequent that even with the crowds out it was just a matter of time plus there weren't many takers on the real ones. what was nice is at 4-5ft the set waves didn't mutate like they do at sandy's. one came i went. i got in so easy it was stupid and just glided down the face...not just the quick drop and tuck in, but a looong drop and finally i pulled under the lip...loudness and wide open area and a quick silence. i got dragged and ragged and dragged and ragged...lost my fin and finally one final basketball dribble across the bottom. to be pounded for 5 seconds in shorebreak is worthy of mention....not to mention the beating i took for being at ground zero with the next four waves. i was estatic for this beating and felt i deserved it and left the water knowing i was slightly different than when i went in. that was the biggest wave i've charged on my stomach in at least four years and i bodysurf at generally once a week
Posted by megaprober at 10:37 PM
5/16
TUESDAY...new swell out of the north-northeast will provide some waves for those fortunate enough to get in the water early tomorrow. recent buoy readings are showing a dropping trend late in the day until present time. furthermore, buoys suggest that the swell has peaked and will drop further to the 2-4ft maximum range by morning. surf today was 3-5ft at select north facing reefs along both the north and east shores. models have been consistent with the swell coming and going quick with buoy readings confirming this. the call for tomorrow is for a dropping north swell out of 10-20deg with waves in the 2-4ft maximum range. winds will be light in the morning resulting in good conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 09:54 PM
May 04, 2006
5/5
FRIDAY...surf will rise along northern shores as a new swell out of the northwest fills in overnight. buoy readings just observed indicated that the swell is currently passing beneath buoy 1 as power readings are diplaying significant energy in the 12-14sec energy bands. the new swell was generated from a short-lived fast moving storm just northwest of the islands near the dateline. winds favorable to hawaii blew from monday to tuesday and although the system was quick to come and go, its close proximity to hawaii of roughly 900nm will allow enough energy to produce a small 2-4ft swell along northern shores. southern shores will continue with long period ground swell with surf in the 2-3ft range. winds are forecasted to return with a vengance so expect more significant chop on exposed location.
Posted by megaprober at 09:28 PM
May 02, 2006
south swell
WEDNESDAY...southern shores on the way up as a long lived south swell arrives locally. a large storm east of new zealand last week generated a strong swell that will pass east of the islands en-route to the americas. the storm packed winds of near hurricane strength over a very large area of open ocean east of new zealand. in the process open ocean seas of nearly 45ft were generated. the system slowly moves west to east aross the south pacific thus it remained over previously agitated seas which in terms of hawaii will mean a long-lived swell episode. had hawaii been in a direct path we would see one of the larger swells to come through in a while. best guess would 6ft solid. however, due to the swell missing us to the east we will only see the western fringe of the swell. hawaii should see surf in the 3-5ft range maximum at the largest spots, however the good news is that there will be waves of least head high for the next three days. wednesday will see surf slowly inceasing with sets nearing 4ft at most spots. the swell will come in at 170-190deg locally with the largest of the wave periods (17-22sec) arriving first. shorter wave periods of 14-17sec will follow suit later in the day. winds will be light so seabreezes are a possibility.
Posted by megaprober at 08:40 PM
May 01, 2006
transition
TUESDAY...surf will bottom out on tuesday as both the north and south shores approach the 1-2ft range at the largest spots. tuesday will be a transition day for swells. the north shore will be fresh out of swell for the day as the north swell that provided waves over the weekend passes the islands. with little in the way of tradewinds and no swell schedualed for arrival until wednesday most spots on the north shore will be unridable. southern shores may see forerunners of a new powerful southerly swell that is forecasted to arrive on wednesay. as a rule of thumb the stronger the swell the earlier they tend to show up. southern swells seem to play by this rule and there may definitely be sets by dusk in the giant wave bands..meaning 20sec or more. south swells allow ample travel time for wave periods to separate their appropriate energy bands. with a large swell such as the one forecasted the largest waves of the swell will move significantly foreward of the main swath, thus large south swells tend to show "the night before". tomorrow winds will be northeasterly and the only real hope for waves is late in the day along south shores.
Posted by megaprober at 08:24 PM