July 31, 2006
epic south shore crank
TUESDAY...large south swell will be here for the dawn patrolers. surf will approach the double-overhead range at many locations and many of those mysto spots will be alive and well for the morning with the light and variable winds in the morning. the wind pattern could not have come at a better time with this swell peaking overnight. for lack of a better word tomorrow morning conditions could be epic at your favorite secret spot, the one that likes large powerful south swells.
the cultprit was a large open ocean system east of nerw zealna that lit up the ocean for well over 1000nm in our general direction. the swell has arrived, as i am an eye witness. when flying back from kauai, this evening i could see clearly southerly swell lines from 10,000 feet up. buoys are all registering powerful south swell in the 14-17sec energy band.
the call is for solid 4-6ft surf at most locations out 190deg. mysto spots will be lighting up and everybody will on it or trying to find a way to get out of work. winds will be light and essentially non-existent.
Posted by megaprober at 10:28 PM
July 27, 2006
gone unti monday...waves plentiful though
FRIDAY...surf will be on the way up as a new south swell fill in along southern shores. recent buoy observations are confirming the much anticipated south swell with buoys 2, 3, and 4 all registering long period energy in the 15-17sec range. look for surf to build to the 3-5ft range at most spots with possible pluses at select spots. the south shores should have plentiful waves for the next two weeks.
jute will be on kauai until monday so no posts 'til then. happy wave hunting.
Posted by megaprober at 10:37 PM
July 26, 2006
7/27
THURDAY...the first in a series of large south swells will fill in throughout the day with surf in the 3-4ft range at select spots.
the swell was generated over five days ago in an optimum posistion (for hawaii) southeast of new zealand. seas reached 30ft over a roughly 700nm area of water facing in the direction of hawaii. the system also moved northeast over already agitated seas, thus contrubuting to the over all swell power. buoy 28 spiked earlier today (wednesday) with power readings near 25m2/Htz. as a rule most southerly swells will push the power reading to near 15m2/Htz, so this swell will be larger than the usual 4ft southy.
energy has not yet registered at buoy 2, but am guessing that by morning the swell will have reached that location. it is worth mentioning that the larger south swells move quicker than do the smaller ones and that this rule can be applied to all large swells.
the call is for a small morning with surf in the head high range at the largest spots. by the afternoon very long period swell in the 18-22sec energy bands will start arriving out of 200deg and surf will gradually build up to the 3-4ft range with definite bombs at select reefs. due the long period energy bands, swell refraction will be a factor.
winds will be trades as usual.
hurricane daniel has all by dissipated and the national weather service has discontinued issuing advisaries on it. the system is forecasted to move south of the island chain producing an increase on showers, mostly for the big island.
Posted by megaprober at 09:08 PM
July 24, 2006
large waves coming
TUESDAY...surf will remain near the shoulder high range on southern shores as a two small swells from the remote southerly sources keep the surf in check. the first was from area far the the east of new zealand approximately near 40deg latitude and much further north than most southerly swell providers. the system had an area of winds that aimed in our direction about five days ago. the winds were fairly short lived and the swell will come and go quick in terms of south swells.
another system in the tasman sea will povide a new swell due to arrive in wedesday. for tomorrow another south-southwest swell will eak in and push surf in the 1-3ft range. three footers will be found at spots that allow better refraction with the longer wave periods associated with swell from this area.
winds will continue to be light for another day.
hurricane daniel has started to weaken and has done so considerably. current tracks are predicting the storm to reduce further to tropical storm stregth and remain in that catagory as it makes a pass over or just south of the islands. surf produced from this system will definitely be largest for the southeast coast of the big island. the other, northern islands, may be in the shadow of the big island, thus reducing surf potential.
Posted by megaprober at 09:39 PM
July 20, 2006
7/21
FRIDAY...waves will come up slightly as a new tasman sea source south-southwest swell moves across the islands. the swell was created nearly a week ago in the tasman sea and as with other swells from this region surf can be inconsistent and waveheights can vary depending on island shadowing effects. best guess is slowly building surf in the head high range at select spots slong the southern shores.
hurrican daniel is defying the forecasters as it continues to gain strength and has now reached catagory 4 in strength with wind speeds near 150mph. at this point i'm thinking it will glaze catagory 5 strength before it starts to fuse out as it moves over cooler water. in any case surf will definitely come out of this and right now by tuesday we should start to see some surf.
winds will be light and conditions good in the AM. watch out for the seabreezes in the afternoon.
Posted by megaprober at 09:51 PM
July 19, 2006
7/20
THURSDAY...smaller surf for thusday as the only swell in the vicinity of hawaii is a distant south-southwest swell originating from the tasman sea, a distance of over 4500nm. the long travel distance and island shadowing will both contribute to very infrequent sets and poor forecasting confidence on size.
of interest though is hurricane daniel churning in the east pacific. the storm is modeled to possibly reach catagory 4 which will put wind gusts near 130mph. the is definite swell potential from this system, however any surf produced will not arrive locally until early next week.
the call for tomorrow is south shores in the 1-3ft range at the largest spots good conditions.
winds will be light trades going seabreezes later in the day.
Posted by megaprober at 10:40 PM
July 18, 2006
7/19
WEDNESDAY...smallsurf will continue island wide as the current south swells are fading out. two small swells, one from the south-southeast and one from the south-southwest are slowly on the decline for wednesday. south shores will be head high at the largest spots with very infrequent sets when they do come. the south-southeast swell will actually all but be gone by night fall and the south-southwest swell will slowly fade off by day break on thursday. the remote source of the south-southwest swell contributes largely to the very infrequent sets as they had to meander through the many islands of the southwest pacific.
of interest though is the low magnitude energy registering concurrently from both the east (100deg)and the west (270). the swells were most likely generated by the distant tropical storms on either side of hawaii. in any case, there may be a few small knee highs to be ridden at the most secret of spots along the affected shorelines.
winds will be light trades going seabreezes later in the day.
Posted by megaprober at 08:56 PM
July 17, 2006
maddening lulls
TUESDAY...typical summer surf with better than usual conditions as the trade winds will start to back off. the once tropical storm bud is moving north of the island and as it does the strong high pressure cell that dominates the central northeastern pacific will begin to erode, thus producing weaker than usual trade winds. with the weaker winds the usual spots suceptable to the gusty chop created by the trades may be slightly better than the usual summertime blowout that frequently occurs. southern shores will see a mix of swell from both the south-southwest and the south-southeast. buoy readings are showing low frequency long period swell which will translate into surf with inconsistent conditions complete with maddening lulls. look for south shore 2-3ft at the largest spots with dropping winds.
Posted by megaprober at 09:43 PM
July 11, 2006
7/12
WEDNESDAY...surf will be on a slow rise out of the south-southwesterly direction. a new swell is due to fill in locally that was generated in the tasman sea. buoy 28 reistered the swell over the weekend with long period swell in the 16-20sec energy bands observed saturaday into sundy. given the roughly two day travel time, surf should arrive overnight and produce head high waves at select spots that can amplify long period swell. with the large tidal fluctuations occuring, the swell may be subject to pulses. it has been my experience that south swells tend to be more consistent with incoming tides. the call for tomorrow is for 2-3ft surf out of 210deg with windy and choppy conditions. windward shores will remain near advisary levels as the trades are forecasted to blow at maximum levels for one more day before dropping off.
Posted by megaprober at 09:17 PM
July 06, 2006
worthless and weak
FRIDAY...surf is forecasted to bump up on northern shores. a small west-northwest swell is due to arrive on friday prodicing surf in the barely ridable waist high at the largest spot range. places like sunset point may have a longboardable wave or two out the back, but this swell will hardly stir the water. southern shores will hang in there in the 1-2ft range with long period swell from the tasman sea. winds will continue to pillage the islands and produce rough waters along the windward shores.
Posted by megaprober at 06:15 PM
July 02, 2006
7/3
MONDAY...surf to decline further as there is little in the way of groundswell in the vicinity of the islands. recent buoy observations are indicating that the groundswell that arrived over the weekend is on its way out and the next swell to arrive out of the south is still roughly a day and a half away. the equatorial buoy did show a slight increase in long period swell over the weekend, however the amount of energy registering there was minimal, therefore the next swell episode is not likely to amount to much locally. tradewinds are blowing and will remain doing so for most of the upcoming week.
Posted by megaprober at 10:09 PM