August 28, 2006
8/29
TUESDAY...small surf once again for tuesday as there will be little in the way of swell in the vicinity of the islands. two small residual swells will be keeping condtions just above the flat catagory producing surf in the chest to head high range at the largest locations. a small swell from new zealand will send infrequent sets out of 210deg. a recent review of the buoys suggests that there may be little more than forecasted with both the equatorial buoy and buoy 2 showing some long period energy in the 12-14sec energy bands. best guess is that this may be the new zealand episode which is modeled to hang for a few days.
the call is for slightly larger surf than forecasted with head high sets and some decent surf at the right tide.
Posted by megaprober at 07:39 PM
August 27, 2006
small waves
MONDAY...surf will continue on a downward trend for the start of the week. the south swells that graced the islands over the last part of the week are going to be virtually non-existant. buoy reports and WW3 models are confirming this with dwindling surf heights at all the southern buoys and dropping number out of the south on the models. condtions should be good with no wind in the morning, but the waves will be small.
Posted by megaprober at 11:06 PM
August 26, 2006
swell dropping
SUNDAY...surf will be on the way down for the day. the swells have peaked and will be all be on the their way out. recent buoy observations have indicated that all aspects of wave meansurements have lowered and that by morning on sunday, surf will be in the 1-3ft range at the largest spots. the swell was dropping all day as i was out in the water and experience tells me that these swells are done.
the low pressure near the islands will help keep the trades absent once maore creating both packed lineups and good conditions for whatever swell is still around.
Posted by megaprober at 09:58 PM
corners
had a couple of decent sessions, one last night and the other today.
last night went and looked at the head and saw rafts of ants in the water. it was so crowded that i said, "fuck it, i'm going to the most intense packed spot "the house"". anyway eneded up catching some dumpers at the apartment on the way out to the house on the corner. thought the house was about as good as i've ever seen it...sort of like a small sunset. got tired of listening to the barking dog on a yellow longboard and paddled over to the corner west of the house. got a couple good ones that packed some punch.
today went down to the lupe and paddled over to an obscure reef i've been speclatively eyeballing and surfed a couple times over the years. super fun lefts with lots of coral heads. there was one other dude out that was sort of thinking he owned the place, but he kept to himself.
swell is on the way out and waves will be too small for anybody that really surfs tomorrow. north shore were are you?
Posted by megaprober at 07:26 PM
August 24, 2006
combo
FRIDAY...surf will peak along southern shores in the 4ft local scale catagory. select reefs may even see the odd 5ft streetsweeper. the culprit was a storm that slid east of new zealand and pupmped out a batch of winds just south of tahiti. as mentioned in many other surf reports, the close proximity of the system should help boost the usual inconsistent south swell into the slightly consistent catagory.
also in the mix is a deep south-southwesterly groundswell that originated in the tasman sea. extreme winds and persistance may help this swell negotiate the many south pacific islands that are between here and there. surf along the affected south shores will be above average for the day with many sets due to the combination of swell. also the lack of winds can't hurt either.
Posted by megaprober at 09:22 PM
August 22, 2006
hector
WEDNESDAY...surf should be plentiful for hump day. eastern shores should hold in there with surf in the 3-5ft range at select spots with good conditions with the lack of wind. hurricane hector proved real and buoy reports are confirming a nice 11-14sec ground swell out 80-110deg. southern shores will see surf build for wednesday, however the equatorial buoy has been on the increase since last night, therefore it seems lilkely that the largest area of the swell will not arrive locally until thurday. winds will be absent.
Posted by megaprober at 11:14 PM
August 21, 2006
swell amuck
TUESDAY...much to report in the surfing world. new swells are on the way from both the deep southwest pacific, the east pacific and locally. a series of storms in both the tasman sea and east of new zealand will send swell arriving locally starting late tuesday, but more likely wednesday. tomorrow will likely see the forunners of a new episode that originated in the tasman sea nearly a week ago. surf will start a slow rise with the primary swath of the swell arriving on wednesday. surf should top out around 3ft by wednesday. as of this writing the buoys are not allowing access for some reason, so fine tuning is not possible. other websites are indicating that there is also energy arriving from the east in the 12-14sec range. this is likely the initial swell from hurricane hector. surf along the eastern shores should hover in the solid head high range, with larger surf on the more eastern islands. word has it that there is some long period energy arriving from the west that may be associated with the large typhoons in the far western pacific. closer to home we have hurricane ioke that has evolved into a major catagory 4 hurricane. surf should be generated along the southwestern shorelines in the 3ft range at the minimum in the next few days. it is really too early to say, but some swell should come out of it...look for surf near thursday.
Posted by megaprober at 09:10 PM
August 19, 2006
tropical itch
SUNDAY...not much new in the forecast for sunday. a small bump possible for the southern shores as a long lasting episode from the tasman sea makes its way to the islands. the swell should arrive tomorrow and build throughout the day producing surf in the waist to chest high range out of the 210deg direction. the longer periods of these swells will pop up a few surprises at select reefs. windward shores are supposed to come up, however me being the windward wave hound, experience is telling me that the winds have not been strong enough to warrant a trip to makapu'u so that means windward shores two feet or less. winds are the usual trades. keeping an eye on the tropics as a new system just got classified today as tropical depression
Posted by megaprober at 08:37 PM
August 18, 2006
flatest time of the year
SATURDAY...small surf for the weekend with a new swell from the south-southwest barely worth mentioning. surf may increase along the windward side as the trade increase. welcome to the flatest time of the year.
Posted by megaprober at 10:32 PM
August 17, 2006
good day to work
FRIDAY...small surf going tiny on southern shores. models and recent buoy observations are indicating that surf will drop along southern shores as there is no significant energy registering from the southern bouys. windward shores may creep up a notch as the winds seem to be making a comeback after a couple of days on haitus. the new hurricane (hector) is looking impressive, but as of yet will no provide surf until possibly next week. tomorrow is a good day to work.
Posted by megaprober at 09:06 PM
August 14, 2006
8/15
TUESDAY...surf will be on the rise out of both the south-southwest and the south-southeast. a swell was generated about a week ago from a source west of new zealand in the tasman sea that will produce a moderate and likely inconsistent south-southwest swell due to arrive locally tuesday afternoon out of 210deg. surf from this region is often sporadic and unpredictable in nature due to the many south pacific islands that the swell must negotiate. history has proven that even the largest swells produced in this area can produce a severe letdown here in hawaii with surf sometimes barlely making an appearance. best guess is a bump in the surf with one those "sets every half hour" swells reaching 3ft by dark. also, on the menu, is a south-southeasterly swell due to arrive out 165deg with waves nearing the 4ft catagory on wednesday. the swell was the result of a batch of winds slightly east and south of french polynesia. swell from this area is generally unobstructed and usually provides nice little surprises due to the closer proximity. surf shoulf start to show later in the day and the southern buoys 2and 4 will need monitoring to fine tune surf for wednesday.
Posted by megaprober at 07:39 PM
August 12, 2006
8/12
SATURDAY...small surf islands wide. windward shores topping the list as the trades are provivding some relief with windswell affecting the eastern shorelines with surf in the 1-3ft range at the largest spots. surf will be slightly larger toward the afternoon as the winds will have had a chance to work on the ocean all day. other shorelines are small and less than two feet as there are no real swells moving through the islands
Posted by megaprober at 01:45 PM
August 08, 2006
same thing
WEDNESDAY...similar conditions to tuesday with chest high surf along southern shores and winds tradewinds creating rough surf along windward shorelines.
Posted by megaprober at 09:57 PM
August 02, 2006
8/3
THURSDAY...more waves on the way as yet another south swell moves in on the heels of the current one. buoy 28 readings show more swell still registering there as it has been going up and down over the past few days. buoy readings dropped however at buoy 2 so the current train of thought is that the main swath of the swell has yet to register there.
for tomorrow expect waves to remain near the 4ft catagory for most of the day with the occasional larger set at selec spots.
Posted by megaprober at 10:00 PM
August 01, 2006
8/1
WEDNESDAY...models are showing that waves are looking to peak later tonight or early tomorrow. energy readings on the southern buoys are confirming this as buoy 2 is showing poweful energy that is rivaling some of the largest swells seen last year. if the models are correct than we can expect solid 4-6ft surf for the better part of the day for wednesday.
winds are forecasted to start arriving from the east, however they may be light to non-existent for the morning. depending on weather or not the winds back off by morning will dictate whether or not conditions will be poor or epic. keep an eye on local winds before jumping out of bed into a mass of whitewater oblivion.
Posted by megaprober at 08:04 PM