September 30, 2006
sunday
SUNDAY...surf will be dropping on sunday. the peak of the swell was most likely mid-day saturday based on yours truly eye witness observations. northern buoy reports are confirming this as the waimea buoy had a peak around mid-day and has been slowly on the decrease.
the call for sunday is surf droppping with heights near 4ft at the largest spots. some of the spots working today will be shut off by tomorrow. so those seeking that spot they scored today may be in for a disapointment or at least a significant drop in size. winds may be variable.
Posted by megaprober at 08:31 PM
September 28, 2006
9/29
FRIDAY...fairly long-lived northwest swell going to arrive for aloha friday.
typhoon yagi is going to send some surf to the nortwest shores bringing rising surf out of 320deg. surf is expected to build to the five foot catagory by the afternoon with some reefs favoring a touch of west receiving some six foot sets.
the swell is the result of former typhoon yagi that eventually went extra-tropical. this will help enhance the longevity of the swell. buoy 1 and the waimea buoy have both been receiving long period swell from 290-320deg over the last twenty four hours. this is inicative of the early phase of the system when it was a typhoon raging across the western pacific. more significant energy associated with the system going extra-tropical should start to feel the buoys sometime late tonight or early tomorrow morning. in any case surf will build out 320deg all day with the larger surf in the afternoon.
winds should be favorable for the usual spots as they will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:22 PM
September 27, 2006
north swell
THURSDAY...surf will be on the way down for thursday on northern shores.
the much anticipated swell that arrived slightly ahead of schedual on northern shores peaked out today near the solid five foot range this afternoon. wavewatch 3 models are showing a downward trend therefore the call is for 2-4ft surf in the morning with waves slowly dropping.
buoy 1 and the waimea buoy are picking up long period swell near 17sec from the west-northwest. this swell may be the forerunners of the next northwest swell that is due to arrive on friday.
surfed my favorite spots today with clean 3-5ft sets. the rocks gave me my initiation gashes and the bushman seemed to work.
Posted by megaprober at 09:54 PM
September 26, 2006
at last the pacific awakens
WEDNESDAY...first real swell due to arrive on the north shore.
as of this writing buoy 1 has already started to pick up significant energy from the new swell. the swell is actually slightly ahead of schedual as the wavewatch 3 models didn't forecast the swell to start passing under buoy 1 until 5am wednesday morning. given the eight hour travel time there is a good chance that there will be surf in the four foot catagory by tomorrow morning.
the call is for surf arriving out of 330deg by morning in the solid 3ft range with larger sets. surf will continue to build all day with five and even six foot bombs at select spots. conditions should be trades promoting good conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 07:48 PM
September 24, 2006
monday
MONDAY...surf will start to drop along southern shores as the south swell most likely peaked this afternoon. recent buoy observations are showing ground swell on buoy 2, so there is little doubt that there will be something for the monday dawny. southern shores should hold in the solid 2-4ft range and with better conditions with the lower tide.
northern shores will be down from today's peak of three feet at select spots that favor the northwest direction. monday will be near flat at most locations with a few leftover two footers at very few locations.
winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 09:06 PM
bushman
Posted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 7:51 pm Post subject:
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surfed the "over" on that little left on the way inside. turned out on being a lesson on backside railgrabs. head high and fun if you were a light footed goofy.
stopped by the surf and sea and was milling about when i came across a deal too good to pass up. ended up driving off with a 7'4" bushman for $135. board is a little beat up, but i could immediately tell that the board was ridden plenty and for a good reason, it works. whoever owned it definitely used it and i felt she had a few more rides left in her. when the waves come up i know i want something solid under the belt and the feel of the board was that it will glide throught the water as has that you can charge feel to it. anyway, i got a bushman and am looking foreward for some 6ft and this time i actually mean it.
Posted by megaprober at 08:52 PM
September 23, 2006
9/25
SUNDAY...surf possible around the island. northern shores may see a bump out of 330deg resulting in surf near the chest high range at select spots and near flat at most others. the system associated with the swell was weak producing the largest sets (10sec) just outside the windswell criteria (8 sec) in terms of swell periods. this will translate into minimal refraction at reefs picking up the swell, therefore most reefs, as mentioned earlier, may be flat and unridable while others may see sets eaching head high at the most rightous of spots.
southern shores are forecasted to bump up to the four foot range. the most recent buoy observations are not indicating the kind of power associated with strong groundswell needed to produce surf in the overhead range. a further look at past maps, indicates that the swell was produced by a storm that moved past the southern tip of new zealand nearly a week ago with maximum winds near 40mph in the swell window of hawaii, although most energy was directed east of hawaii. the magical component was an elongated fetch nearly 1000nm which is key for a south swell to make the journey.
another pulse was generated on the 20th by a compact system south of tahiti, much closer to home. the system had a short and intense batch of winds over a twelve hour period in the direction of hawaii. surf may show up simultaneously with the previously mentioned swell.
the call is for a slowly building south swell on southern shores with surf approaching the overhead range by nightfall. northern shores will see a weak 1-3ft swell affecting select reefs. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 09:32 PM
September 11, 2006
9/12
TUESDAY...small surf around the island, however there will still be some ridable waves on both the north and south shores.
southern shores will see some leftover sets from the episode that provived waves over the weekend. the system was long-lived as it traveled east across the south pacific, and although it was aimed at targets east of hawaii, waves spread plenty enough to keep hawaii within the swell window. look for small surf with infrequent sets near head high.
northern shores will start to see the arrival of a small swell from 330-345deg. the system responsible was in the far reaches of the north pacific hugging the aleutian islands. a batch of winds near 35mph developed as the system passed north and east of hawaii. winds were aimed well east of hawaii. but some swell should make to northern shores. the swell will be generally weak and inconsistent in terms of the north shore with few spots showing their teeth. look for 1-3ft on the north shore with an occasional larger sets at rockies.
winds are looking good for the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 07:05 PM
September 05, 2006
9/5
WEDNESDAY...surf seasons are changing although the southern resources still have some surprises left. the southern buoys are registering significant long period energy. buoy two inidicates that there are two swells arriving locally. one very long period swell with energy in the 18-20sec bands and a shorter period swell in the 12-14sec band. between the two swells surf should be small, but somehwhat plentiful along the southern shores with the longer period swell on the way up all day and into thursday. the equatorial buoy has shown another peak earlier today which is a good indicator that there is plenty more swell on the way for the next three days. the call is for surf to be in the 2-3ft range out of a variety of directions with energy from 195deg becoming more dominant into thursday. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 10:52 PM
September 03, 2006
9/4
MONDAY...small surf island wide once again. a small bump on southern shores is possible, but unless your a weekend warrior with desperation on hand than passing on the surf is a better option. tomorrow will be a typical packed holiday filled with every longboard surfer wannabe that will undoubtable ruin most any ridable wave that attempts breaking. best spots will be two feet featuring the above. recommend surfing between 10-2pm because most people are like robots and will follow suit and eat lunch and if your really strategic you might find a break at that time.
starting to see signs of the first of two north pacific swells on the way.
Posted by megaprober at 10:52 PM