October 30, 2006
10/31
TUESDAY...large surf forecasted out of the north-northeast for tuesday.
the low pressure roughly 1000nm out from hawaii has produced a north-northest swell over the last few days. models suggest that the peak of the episode will be later tonight into tomorrow morning. recent buoy obeservations have shown a maximum peak in wave heights ealier this evening with a slight drop over the past several hours. because of the direction that swell is arriving from in nearly due north it is reasonable to assume that waves are arriving at buoy 1 and the islands almost simultaneaously, therefore the usual eight hour travel time from the northwestern buoy is obsolete.
the storm had a fairly compact area of winds near 50mph which is likley responsible for the longer wave periods of near 15sec. given the proximity of the storm there is a good chance that the swell trains did not have ample time to spread appropriately into seperate energy bands thus producing a somewhat stormy and choppy swell.
the call is for 6-8ft surf with minor outer reef action and decent winds conditions. the swell may smooth out a bit maore as it starts to drop tomorrow.
Posted by megaprober at 08:49 PM
October 28, 2006
10/29
SUNDAY...new series of northerly swells on store.
buoy 1 is registering energy associated with a new north swell that should fill in overnight and push waves in the 6-8ft range by sunday. the storm formed north of the islands about 1200nm out on wednesday into thursday and produce surf near twenty feet in the open ocean. the given travel distance and close proximity of the system should be cause for an abrupt rise in the surf starting later today and overnight. surf will be slightly stormy and mixed up as the fetch of the storm moved in the direction of hawaii roughly 800nm out.
the call is for surf 6-8ft for sunday out of the north with larger sets at select spots. winds should be good as they will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 04:02 PM
10/29
SUNDAY...new series of northerly swells on store.
buoy 1 is registering energy associated with a new north swell that should fill in overnight and push waves in the 6-8ft range by sunday. the storm formed north of the islands about 1200nm out on wednesday into thursday and produce surf near twenty feet in the open ocean. the given travel distance and close proximity of the system should be cause for an abrupt rise in the surf starting later today and overnight. surf will be slightly stormy and mixed up as the fetch of the storm moved in the direction of hawaii roughly 800nm out.
the call is for surf 6-8ft for sunday out of the north with larger sets at select spots. winds should be good as they will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 04:02 PM
October 26, 2006
10/27
FRIDAY...northeasterly swell will finally begin a decline starting friday.
the source of the long lived northeasterly swell episode has finally disapated. a moderately large area of winds rougly half way between hawaii and california has begun to degenerate thus the surf production from this source will be no more. this area of winds blew constant 30-40mph winds in the direction of hawaii (30 -50deg) over the last few days and was resposible for above advisary surf along the affected shorelines. surf tomorrow will be in the three to five foot catagory or just above advisay levels for the northeastern shorelines in the morning and by days end there should be a noticable drop in surf in those areas.
the next batch of surf won't start arrving until late saturday and into sunday from a newly formed storm north of the islands. friday should see the transition period of swells between these two episodes.
southern shores will again see a bump with surf reaching near advisary levels of eight feet on the face. conditions should be slightly better than they have been with the trades lightening up a bit.
northern shores will be small with minor northeasterly swell wraping in at select locations.
Posted by megaprober at 09:44 PM
October 25, 2006
10/26
THURSDAY..northesterly swell to continue to dominate.
the current northeasterly swell will stay around for another day producing surf in the four to six foot range at select northeast facing locations. the system associated with the surf is a complex mixture of strong tradewinds as well as a pressure gradient upstream and northeast of the islands. the pressure gradient is caused by winds moving from a high pressure area to a low pressure area and as luck has it, the fetch is pointed more or less the direction of hawaii.
the system is forecasted to move slowly east and as it does the swell will start to diminish as well as move clockwise around the compass favoring a more easterly direction. the north shore proper will see wrap from this source although as the swell swings more easterly the surf will become smaller and less frequent
the call for thursday is a mixed up swell from the northeast in the four to six foot range at spots receiving maximum swell power and other spots seeing the wrap will be a weak two to four feet. wind will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 08:57 PM
October 23, 2006
10/24
TUESDAY...surf is going to be stormy and viscous along the northeastern shorelines.
buoy reports from the northern buoys are showing strong northeasterly swell near the ten foot range. although buoy 1 peaked earlier today near fifteen feet and eye witness reports were calling a droppin swell, the kailua buoy is still showing open ocean swell heights near ten feet. given the stormy conditions seen today on the east side and the blasting winds as of this writing, there is little doubt that surf should still be cranking out of the northeast for tuesday.
the call is for surf to be 3-5ft 6ft sets at select spots along the northeastern shorelines with surf on the downward trend for the day. the north shore proper should be 2-4ft with larger sets at select north facing reefs. conditions will be blustery.
Posted by megaprober at 10:22 PM
October 19, 2006
10/20
FRIDAY...significant drop in surf seems likely. buoy observations are indicating that the current northwest swell has peaked and will be on the way out for friday. there is, however, a reinforcement swell registering on the waimea buoy in the 18-20sec period energy bands. this swell has a slightly more west component meaning that this is most likely a new episode filling in.
surf tomorrow may build yet again in the 6-8ft range at the more exposed reefs favoring northwest swells.
southern shores will also be on the decline for friday and again this will be a short lived lull as a new south-southwesterly swell fills in over the weekend.
winds should again be good for the morning
Posted by megaprober at 11:39 PM
October 18, 2006
epic surf alert!!!
THURSDAY...lots of swell in store pretty much anywhere you go. the northern buoys (1 and waimea) are showing singnificant long period energy associated with the current northwest swell. surf today reached the advisary criteria of fifteen feet on the face thus lighting up some of the outer reefs. surf tomorrow should continue to be about the same, although it will be on the downward trend.
surf along the south shores is a bit trickier to tackle becuse it its likely being masked by the northwest swell on the southern buoy (2, 3, and 4). best guess is that surf along the south shore will be solid 3-5ft with occasional larger sets at places that like to refract swell. winds should be good as there will not be any for the morning. epic condition alert for all shores. get it now!!!
Posted by megaprober at 10:24 PM
October 16, 2006
earthquake, hawaii, october 15th 2006 7:07am
MONDAY...surf will be on a general upward trend for the day, although i have no specifics its merely a hunch. today hawaii experienced a large eathquake which has in turn knocked out power for most of the islands and finally near mid-night i just got my power back on. the shaking woke me and i have to say that i have never felt anything like it in the fifteen years i have lived here. thee house was moving in directions i wasn't sure were possible and to be honest i was wishing that the ride would turn off after ten seconds or so and that was only the start of the dreaded s-wave that followed and shook the house side to side. an exciting day to say the least. new forecast tomorrow.
Posted by megaprober at 01:01 AM
October 12, 2006
10/13
FRIDAY...sources indicate that the current swell is on the way out.
buoy readings from buo1 and the waimea buoy are showing dropping waveheights and lower power readings in the long period swell energy bands.
waves should drop overnight and contunue for the day tomorrow until a new reinforcement arrives out of the west-northwest. surf should be in the solid four foot range in the morning with a slight drop around mid-day and then a slow rise to near five feet. winds will be favorable in the morning as they will be light or non-existant.
Posted by megaprober at 08:43 PM
October 09, 2006
10/10
TUESDAY...surf will build on northern shores tuesday.
a new northwest swell is starting to ping buoy 1 at ther time of this writing. the initial energy is spiking waveheights rapidly and will continue to do so overnight. for those looking to fine tune the swell for the morning, a check later tonight will be neccessary.
the swell was genrated by a large storm northwest of hawaii that packed a serious punch as it traveled across the north pacific. with winds near 50mph over a fairly large fetch of ocean this swell will be slightly larger than last weekends episode that topped out near 5ft. the current swell may push into the high surf advisary level of 15ft on the face, thus translating into a solid 8ft swell at its peak maxing out most of the usual spots.
the call is for rising surf out of the northwest with surf approaching 6ft at most spots. outer reefs may feather by the afternoon. winds should be good for the AM.
Posted by megaprober at 08:32 PM
October 05, 2006
10/6
FRIDAY...moderate northwest swell will greet dawn patrolers in the AM.
buoy 1 has shot up on waveheights, power and wave periods. the above combined information indicates that there will be solid four foot surf along northern shores for friday. winds should be good as they are light now and will be most likely non-existant by the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 10:06 PM