November 30, 2006
11/30/06
FRIDAY... series of northwest swells will affect northern shores for the day.
moderate swell activity from the northwest as well as the northeast will keep surf in the 3-5ft range on the local scale. both nearby short period swell from the adjacent low pressure system moving off to the northeast and distant northwest swell will be on the decline for the day. conditions will be windy and choppy as the winds are attempting to move toward a more easterly direction.
Posted by megaprober at 07:00 PM
November 29, 2006
11/29/06
THURSDAY...two new swells are due to arrive locally.
a northwest swell generated a couple days ago in the far northwest pacific will push surf to near advisary levels. the system had a fairly long fetch aimed in the direction of hawaii with winds near 40mph over a 36hr period. this will provide a swell lasting several days with a peak in the episode by mid-day thursday. surf will push to near eight feet on the local scale.
another swell generated over the last day will arrive simultaneasly outof the north. the storm system associated with the cold front that pushed throught the islands wednesday has generated a quasi-windswell. the main area of winds responsible for this episode are about 800nm due north of hawaii. with winds of near 30mph over the next 24hrs, a swell will arrive out of 340-360deg by mid-day thursday producing choppy and mixed up conditions near the five foot catagory on the local scale.
winds locally are going to go northerly wednesday night and will likely be the same for the day on thursday producing poor conditions on all but the southern shores.
southern shores may see surf in the 2-3ft range at the most rightous of reefs with good conditions.
windward shores are likely to be blown out with the northerly winds.
Posted by megaprober at 06:06 PM
November 27, 2006
11/28/06
TUESDAY...a new west-northwest swell will arrive pushing surf heights up to the five foot local style scale for tuesday.
a storm in the far reaches of the northwest pacific generated a swell about three days ago. the system had a captured fetch of nearly 1200nm in the direction of hawaii over the weekend. wind speeds of near 40mph blew for the duration of nearly 30hrs and generated seas of near twenty feet. the given travel of nearly 2200nm will limit the size of the swell, although it should be fairly consistent.
surf has already started to register on the northern buoys and swell will arrive out of 305-320deg in the 12-14sec energy bands. local surf heights will be 3-5ft with some possible larger sets at select west favoring reefs. winds will be trades for the day grooming the usual spots.
Posted by megaprober at 07:23 PM
November 26, 2006
11/27/06
MONDAY...west-northwest swell on the decline and a ne smaller west-northwest filling in.
surf will be near the four foot range at the largest spots along the north shore for monday. a new smaller west-northwest swell will fill in as the current swell fades. as of the this writing there is no energy registering on buoy 1 so, at least by morning, we are depending on the declining swell. eyewitness reports tell me that the current west-northwest swell was definitely on its way out by mid-day sunday.
the easterly swell is showing strongly on both bouy 1 and the kailua buoy. surf heights rose late sunday night and boosted surf along eastern shore s to the four to six foot range sunday. surf from this direction should hold for monday. trade winds are not likely to return on moday
Posted by megaprober at 09:44 PM
November 25, 2006
11/26/06
SUNDAY...surf will definitely be there at most shores for sunday.
current buoy readings from the kailua buoy are showing the east swell that has been affecting eastern shorelines. wavewatch 3 models are suggesting that the swell will increase slightly sunday and possible further into monday. today surf along eastern shores was solid five feet at select spots and if the models are correct surf could bump up to the six to eight foot range at select spots. at this size there could be some reach around on both northern and southern shores.
recent buoy observations from the waimea buoy and buoy 1 are also showing the current east swell as well as the current west-northwest swell that brought surf along northern shores to near six feet. wavewatch 3 models are indicating that this swell will still build yet another foot or so overnight and stick around at near similar heights as seen today.
the tough call for sunday is the winds. models are in disagreement on whether or not the trades will return in the 10-20mph range by mid-day sunday. given that most forecasts are favoring a return of the trades, at least light easterlies, it would be a safe bet that certain spots that are not good on the trades may be blown by mid-day. a personal opinion is that they will remain light for at least the morning creating good glassy conditions island wide.
Posted by megaprober at 06:50 PM
November 20, 2006
11/22
TUESDAY...northerly swell arrived on monday pushing surf heights locally to near 8ft on the local scale.
buoy readings as of 8pm suggest that the swell is still on the way up and will be slightly larger for tomorrow. estimate for now is that surf will be near 8ft in the morning and then dropping slowly throughout the day. given the storm system associated with the swell was braod and lasted several days, there is no reason to think that the swell won't stick around near solid 6-8ft at north favoring reefs.
conditions should be OK with light trades blowing. the contest will definitely be on.
Posted by megaprober at 07:01 PM
November 19, 2006
north swell phase 2
MONDAY...northern shores on the rise a the current north swell gets a boost.
the next phase in the north swell was gererated by an elongated area of winds that stretched from the gulf of alaska south to within 1000nm of hawaii. winds speed remained less than 35mph, but over a given fetch of 1500nm, this will provide a substantial boost in the surf with waves approaching the high surf advisary of 8ft on the local scale out of 350-020deg. surf built overnight saturday and greeted sunday surfers with north facing reefs nearing the 6ft threshold.
monday will see a second pulse in the swell with surf starting to feel the outer reefs and north facing reefs may see sets near 10ft.
winds will be light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:28 PM
November 17, 2006
11/18
SATURDAY...waves on the rise for saturday. a north-northeast swell generated a few days ago will continue to build along northern and eastern shorelines.
present buoy readings suggest that surf will hold into the 3-5ft range for the morning and possibly build up to 6ft at select north facing reefs.
with the easterly angle surf may wrap into select east side spots.
winds may prove troublesome for the north shore propers as they are forecasted to be out of th west-northwest.
Posted by megaprober at 09:01 PM
November 12, 2006
muggy
MONDAY...surf will be small once again islands wide. a small west-northwest swell is forecasted to arrive and puch waved out of the totally flat catagory. easterly shores will have small surf in the thigh to chest high range.
winds will be variable then southerly making for hot and muggy conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 08:22 PM
November 10, 2006
11/11
SATURDAY...surf to drop further for northern shores. recent buoy observations are confirming this and by tomorrow there may be little in the way of north swell.
easterly and southerly swell may stick around for saturday offering some relief from the north shore flatness.
the call is for the north shore to be 1-2ft. southern and eastern shores near 2ft with the odd larger set.
winds are forecasted to start turning south as a frontal system approaches.
Posted by megaprober at 07:46 PM
November 09, 2006
11/10
FRIDAY...surf will be on decline out of the north as the current swell fades.
a north swell has been affecting the islands over the last few day that was generated by a loew pressure that formed in the gulf of alaska a few days ago. the fetch was broad and lasted several days as the system moved away. buoy reprts are indicating that there is still energy out there, but it is is on the way out. tomorrow will see a droping north to north-northeast swell in the head high range at the largest spots.
southern shore will hold in the chest high range as a long lived south swell maitains integrity.
winds will be easterly.
Posted by megaprober at 10:08 PM
November 08, 2006
7/9
THURSDAY...a north-northeast swell has arrived and will stick through for tomorrow. surf today pushed up the slightly overhead catagory and will still punch up a notch overnight. tomorrow will see surf in the 3-4ft range with some higher sets at select north facing reefs. the system assiciated with the swell was a broad area of winds just south of the gulf of alaska that formed on the back side of a storm system that moved northeast away from hawaii about three days ago. because the area of winds was over a large area, there will be a wide rage of direction in the swell.
trade winds will start to decrease by the afternoon.
Posted by megaprober at 05:44 PM
November 06, 2006
11/7
TUESDAY...surf to decline out of the west-northwest.
after today's peak of near eight feet on the north shore the current west-nortwest swell will be drop to the 3-5ft range at the largest spots by the morning and then drop further to the 2-3ft range by evening. buoy reports are showing a drop in both waveheights and energy when compared to yesturday's readings. energy levels are less than one quarter the levels of last night which will dictate the consistency of the swell. waveheights, however, are still near seven feet on the open ocean swell, but with 9-10sec wave periods these readings are considered weak and will not produce significant surf refraction...a primary ingredient for good set waves at many of the main spots.
a slight reinforcement will arrive out of the north-northwest produced by a low pressure system that passed to the north of then islands two days ago. with winds of near 35mph about 1000nm out the swell will produce surf in the head high range at most spots and possibly slightly overhead at spots that favor northerly swell.
the call is for 3-5ft surf with a downward trend all day. winds will be trades that are regaining strenth and power this week.
Posted by megaprober at 07:38 PM
November 05, 2006
11/5
SUNDAY...surf will be tiny to small along all shores. there are no swells on que to arrive until later on sunday evening. there is a possibility that there may be some foreunners arriving from a new west swell starting late in the afternoon, but at the time of this writing nothing has started to ping at buoy 1.
winds will excellent for the morning too bad there are no waves to enjoy the conditions with.
Posted by megaprober at 09:56 AM
November 02, 2006
11/3
FRIDAY...small surf island wide.
small swellls will dominate, one from the north-northeast, one from the north, and one from northwest.
the north-northeast swell will be the final phase of the long-lived swell that produced moderate to hight surf along northeast shorelines for most of the early week. there will minimal energy from this source and most will be lucky to find a head high wave along northestern shorelines.
the north swell will also be minimal as it is also a residual effect of the same system only further away when the system was degerating.
the northwest swell is the result of a bath of winds just west of the islands a couple days ago. the winds of the system were in the 20-35mph range and produced a short period quasi-wind swell that will lift on northwestern facing reefs in the head high range.
winds will be light and variable so that's good news for the morning surfers.
Posted by megaprober at 07:36 PM