December 31, 2006
1/1/07
MONDAY...surf will start out small in the 2-4ft range in the morning and then increase drastically by the end of the day.
a new west-northwest swell is due to arrive late in th day. this swell was generated in the far western pacific off the coast of japan a few days ago. the system was fairly long and broad in that the the fetch spead a good distance of nearly 1000nm. because the system formed at a more southerly latitude than or previous swells this one will have a much more westerly component in it. this is good news for the big island and for places that are suceptible to westerly wrap.
the call is for 6-8ft by enening with possible much larger sets depending on the swell travel speed which is generally faster with massive swells such as these.
winds will be light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:02 PM
December 29, 2006
on the way down
SATURDAY...surf will drop some as the current large northwest swell moves out through the islands.
recent observatios from buoy 1 are confirming this as waveheights and power readings have been on the decline all day.
surf will be 8-10ft at the largest spots in the AM and still yet on the way down. conditions are supposed to improve, but that's what they said about today.
Posted by megaprober at 06:55 PM
December 28, 2006
brute strength
FRIDAY...a massive northwest swell has arrived and will continue with large outer reef surf for most of the day friday.
a brute of a swell moved through the islands today that was generated by a large storm system in the nortwest pacific. the storm formed on monday rapidly gaining strength and moving in the direction of hawaii. packing winds of near 50mph the system moved over already roughened waters toward hawaii adding energy to the prexisting swell. with wind action on the swell for two days and in the direction hawaii to within 800nm, this is the ingredients neccessay for giant swells.
buoy 1 started to register energy in the wee-hours of the morning and power, energy and waveperiods all rapidly rose. energy readings at buoy 1 have registered near 120 megahertz per meter squared which in simple english is very high on the readings. today the waves seemed to have peaked near 22ft at 17sec. this indicates that the swell will likely peak overnight and be on the way down for the morning. wave enegy has fluctuated during the day possibly indicating that there may be more than one pulse to the swell.
the call is for sets near 20ft tonight and 12-15ft by morning with the odd rouge set in the morning. conditions are likely to improve from what they were today, but not until later in the day. winds slowing down, but easterly in the 1025mph range.
Posted by megaprober at 06:48 PM
December 21, 2006
12/22/06
FRIDAY...surf will continue to pump for friday.
recent buoy observations are showing powerful northwest swell that will continue to build over night and peak near midnite near the 10ft mark.
the system associated with the swell formed near the date line about 1200nm out and generated open ocean swell near 30ft. with the given travel distance waves should peak with sets opneing up some of the outer reefs albiet few though. the system lasted nearly 24hrs so it is likely that there will be at least that much in given swell time.
friday will see solid 6-6ft surf at many locations with surf maintaining the 330deg angle. most of the usual suspects will be maxed and some even over powered and gnarly. a new swell will fill in immediately on the heels of the this episode and brting even larger surf.
winds are looking good as they are light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 05:04 PM
December 20, 2006
10/21/06
THURSDAY...new swell registering at the northern buoy.
power, period and surf heights have all increased at buoy 1 indicating that a new northwest swell is about to arrive. the next swell was generated behind the sytem resposible for today's episode that pushed surf to the 4-6ft range. this next swell was generated by a much larger and broarder system and as a result this swell will be significantly more powerful.
look for surf to build to near 8ft by dawn and continue to increase for the day with sets near the 10ft range.
winds will trades in the 10-20mph range.
Posted by megaprober at 09:27 PM
December 19, 2006
12/20/06
WEDNESDAY...surf will hold in the 4-6ft range for the day on northern shores. windward shore will continue to decline and southern shores will also be on the way out.
a fast moving storm formed near the dateline on sunday into monday. although the system was short lived it did produce an open ocean swell near 20ft and packed winds of near 40mph. the fetch was less than 500nm miles and lasted only 18hrs so the swell will come and go quickly. surf should start out near 4ft in the morning and bump quickly to near 6ft by the afternoon and peak near midnight and be on the way out by thursday.
southern shores will see the long lived surf episode that recently affected the islands continue to decline yet further to the head high range.
eastern shores will finally drop back to normal levels with most windward spots near head high.
winds will trades in the 10-20mph range.
Posted by megaprober at 08:16 PM
December 12, 2006
12/13/06
WEDNESDAY...surf will bump up again late in the afternoon for northern shores.
a new northwest swell will arrive late in the day boosting surf to near advisary levels along northern shores. recent buoy observations indicate that the swell has not yet arrived at buoy 1 and is therefore consistent with forecast models. wavewatch 3 models are showing the arrival of the next swell sometime in the afternoon thus the current thinking is that the swell may start to show close to dark. the pipe masters most likley has a fifty-fifty chance of running dpending on morning conditions
dawn will see surf in the 3-5ft range and remain at these levels for most of the day when the new swell starts to fill in near dusk pushing surf to near 6ft with bigger sets. buoy 1 will need close watching to fine tune afternoon surf conditions.
winds are forecasted to start howling once again from the east.
Posted by megaprober at 09:41 PM
December 11, 2006
12/12/06
TUESDAY... slight drop in the surf before the next swell arrives pushing surf above advisary levels of 15ft on the face or 8ft on the local scale for northern shores.
surf along northern shores will bottom out in the 4-6ft range at the largest spots. most other spots will be almost playful in comparison to the last few days. the usual reefs should still have some size yet not cause most to windmill madly toward the horizon.
the north pacific jet has set up a typical winter pattern sending powerful surf every 2-3 days, however the surf is still slightly below our usual winter standards. the third in a series of sytems will send a new swell arriving wednesday pushing surf to near 8ft once again. tuesday will be the "in-between" day so surf may be sporadic as the transistion between swells takes place.
winds are forecasted to start howling once again from the east.
Posted by megaprober at 08:52 PM
December 07, 2006
12/08/06
FRIDAY...large powerful surf arrived in hawaii overnight pushing surf heights to near 15ft on the local scale. word has it the outer reefs were breaking and small waimea was the call. unfortunately, strong tradewinds wreaked havok on the conditions for the north shore and made for choppy conditions.
friday should see another pulse fill in with surf maintaining in the solid 8-10ft range with possible larger sets at select reefs. recent buoy observations are showing swell heights of near 12ft which, by morning, should keep some solid surf around.
winds are going to continue to be strong trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:53 PM
December 06, 2006
first swell
WEDNESDAY...very large surf on the way as the first real swell of the winter marches in with brute fashion.
a large storm system that raced across the north pacific below the aleutian islands is the culprit that will bring warning level surf to hawaii's northern shores. over the weekend the system packed winds speeds of near 50mph for close to 24hrs in the swell window just north and east of hawaii. although the main fetch was off slightly, angular spreading will ensure hawaii gets its share of swell.
buoy reading as of 1630 or 830pm are showing a massive increase in both energy reading and wave heights. with power readings near 50m^2/hz and waveheights of 14ft on the open ocean scale, this swell is for real.
surf will be 8-12ft solid with 15ft sneaker sets in the morning and slowly decreasing throughout the day. most outer reefs will fire and small waimea will be the call. western shores will see 6-8ft in the morning and eastern shores may see a little wrap up north.
winds are going to be oncoming trades.
Posted by megaprober at 08:41 PM
December 05, 2006
12/05/06
TUESDAY...a new northwest swell will start to affect the islands beginning wednesday.
a large storm system formed over the weekend south of the aleutian islands and moves east across the north pacific. winds of near 40mph blew in the swell window of hawaii for nearly 24hrs. surf built to near 30ft on the open ocean scale although the main swath was aimed at targets east of hawaii. surf will arrive out of 325deg at buoy 1 by noon wednesday and build locally by the afternoon pushing to heights of near 10ft on the local scale. with a swell of this size there is a good chance most of the usual spots will be closed out and unridable and the outer reefs will begin to show. this will be the first of a series of winter swells for the season and with surf of this nature caution is a must as these types of swells are often accompanied by rough waves and surf that will rise abruptly.
winds will be strong trades. welcome to winter. the next swell arrving over the weekend will be much larger.
Posted by megaprober at 04:53 PM