January 31, 2007
THURSDAY...surf will come down yet still remain large enough and stormy enough too keep most out of the water.
northern shores will see constant 6-8ft surf from two sources of swell. the northwest pacific near hawaii is cranking out large storms. these storms are keeping sustained winds just northwest of hawaii stretching toward the aleutians. with winds aiming at hawaii over a fetch this long, swell arriving will be constistent and unpredicable. expect much larger rogue waves throughout the rest of the week.
winds will still be strog southwesterlies vering more toward the west as a sold front moves throught the ilsland chain.
Posted by megaprober at 07:13 PM
January 30, 2007
WEDNESDAY...surf on the way down for the day.
the largest and stormiest swell of the season occured and peaked in the wee hours of the morning on tuesday the 30th of january. surf heights reached near 25ft locally at the largest spots, unfortunately there were also strong and gusty southwesterly winds that accompanied the swell. this being the result of an elongated southerly dip in the jet stream that allowed the actual storm to touch the islands.
for wednesday surf will have dropped overnight drastically compared to tuesday as indicated by the sharp drop in wave heights registering at buoy 1. surf heights there have fallen considerably to near 14ft as of the latest reading indicating that surf along the north shore will likely be in the 10-12ft range in the morning with 15ft sneaker sets early on. winds are likely to start up again from the southwest as a newer more powerful cold front arrives in the islands sometime wednesday.
Posted by megaprober at 08:24 PM
January 29, 2007
big stuff
UESDAY...largest surf of the season on hand.
recent buoy observations are indicating that surf for tuesday morning will be nothing short of amazing. although stormy and choppy the buoy 1 is hanging in registering wave heights of near 24ft. given that there are multiple readings over a few hours as opposed to a spike, this episode will crank out the north shore for most of the day tuesday. if the winds were cooperating this would surely be an epic eddie swell, however the given conditions will prompt tow-in surf at rare spots not usually good for such activity.
tuesday will see surf in the 20-25ft plus range on the north shore with plenty of close out sets at the bay. other area subjected to wrap will be 8-12ft with 15ft cleanup sets at select spots.
winds will be west-southwesterly near 30mph.
Posted by megaprober at 09:28 PM
January 26, 2007
1/27/07
SATURDAY...two moderate swells from the west-northwest will stick arounf for saturday.
surf in the 3-5ft range maximum at select reefs will be the call for the day. this will likely be the last day for a while that conditions will remain so as the jet stream is about to move south of hawaii allowing a series of cold front to move through the islands thus there may be strong and gusty west to southwest winds for the next week.
Posted by megaprober at 10:26 PM
January 24, 2007
1/25/07
THUSDAY...surf will drop to the 6-8ft range with good conditions in the morning.
the current large nortwest swell is on the way out and recent buoy observations are confirming this. buoy 1 has dropped substatially with registered surf height now near the 10ft mark.
surf for tomorrow morning will reflect this reading with surf in the 6-8ft range and dropping.
winds should be non-exiatant i.e. variable.
Posted by megaprober at 06:29 PM
January 22, 2007
small giant swell
TUESDAY...very large northwest swell on the horizon.
a large northwest swell looms on the horizon and is due to arrive on tuesday. the jetstream has taken a turn for the better in terms of surf production in hawaii. with the southern drop and closer proximity to hawaii, storms are now going to form closer to the islands. this will in turn make for a shorter travel distance to the islands and much larger surf.
buoy 1 has started to register long period swell as forerunners of the new northwest swell. this swell will peak in the 15-18ft range with a few possible larger sets. experience tells me that this swell will not be an eddie swell as it did not have the right ingredients to produce a long lived 20ft plus swell wothy of such an event.
in terms of giant swells this one will be on the lowest end and barely make wiamea do its thing.
winds are forecasted to be northerly making for bad conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 10:56 PM
January 21, 2007
1/22/07
MONDAY...the start of the week will the last day of peace on the north shore.
a large northwest swell looms on the horizon and is due to arrive on tuesday. the jetstream has taken a turn for the better in terms of surf production in hawaii. with the southern drop and closer proximity to hawaii, storms are now going to form closer to the islands. this will in turn make for a shorter travel distance to the islands and much larger surf.
tomorow, however, will see continued surf in the 3-5ft range with good conditions in the AM due to variable winds.
Posted by megaprober at 09:39 PM
January 18, 2007
1/19/2007
FRIDAY...surf will push back up to the 6-8ft range for friday.
a new swell is due to arrive by morning. surf asscicated with a low pressure system that formed on monday and lasted until wednesday will build overnight out of 315deg. the system formed in off the kamchatka islands and spun in place for well over 24hrs before bolting into the gulf og alaska.
this episode should relatively long lasting, meaning a few days, before a much larger episode fills in early next week
winds will be trades 10-20mph.
Posted by megaprober at 06:32 PM
January 17, 2007
1/18/2007
THURSDAY...surf will drop slightly out of the northwest and then be reinforced by a new west-northwest swell later in the day.
the current nortwest swell peaked yesturday in the 4-6ft range and will drop to 2-4ft at the largest spots by morning.
a new swell however will start to fill in late in the day and bring surf back up to the 4ft range by dusk.
winds will be trades 10-20mph.
Posted by megaprober at 08:56 PM
January 10, 2007
1/11
HURSDAY...surf on the vdecline for east facing shores and on the rise for northern shores.
the north shore will start off in the 4ft range and build all day with sets topping off in 6-8ft solid range. the new swell was generated off the coast of northern japan a couple days ago by a large winter storm packing close to hurricane strength winds and seas approaching 40ft. had the system moved closer to hawaii the swell would certainly be affecting the outer reefs and true waimea. the episode should last 3 days or so producing surf in the 10-12ft range at peak levels.
the eastern shores will finally drop back to normal levels with surf in the 2-3ft range and that's the largest it will be for several day to come.
winds will be light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 09:56 PM
January 09, 2007
1/10
WEDNESDAY...surf to drop for both northern and eastern shores.
current buoy readings are registering more north-northeasterly swell than northwesterly swell. wave energy from 020deg is the dominant energy band indicating that the kona low in vicinity may be providing a slight influence on the surf. although the fetch of the kona low is aimed at targets west of hawaii it may have added a slight boost to the north-northwesterly swell that moved throught the islands today.
windward shores are still massive by east side standards and an eye witness report from yours truly can testify that there is still plenty of energy affecting east facing shores. recent buoy observations from the kailua buoy are showing 12ft swell out of 30-50deg which is translating to some burley 6ft sets along east facing shores.
the call is for trade winds to return for wednesday and a drop along northern shores. windward shores may decrease slightly by wednesday evening and more significantly on thursday.
Posted by megaprober at 08:38 PM
January 08, 2007
1/9
TUESDAY...surf on the way up for northern shores and on the way down for eastern shores.
a new northwest swell is due to arrive locally. the system associated with the swell was generated by one of a few fast moving systems that came and went in the northwest pacific over the last few days. as there has been more than one, pin-picking the actual source is somewhat difficult and cumbersome. wave energy registering at the waimea buoy however is showing that a source of wave energy is there and affecting the islands out of 315deg in the 12sec energy band. this is likely the culprit and current thinking is that the swell will swing more northerly tomorrow and push wave heights to 4-6ft range.
windward shores are showing a downward trend, albiet slight as registered on the kailua buoy. wave heights there are still large at 11ft, however models are indicating that surf should begin to decline over the next few days.
the kona low will be a factor in determining conditions locally and due to the elusive nature of these weather features a best guess is that it will stay west and then slowly dissapate and move out west of the state. the translation is that winds will stay east to southeast for the day tuesday.
Posted by megaprober at 06:31 PM
January 04, 2007
stormy surf from the east
FRIDAY...surf to bottom out on northern shores while eastern shores continued wild and stormy.
the large northwest swell is pretty much on the way out and there should only be leftover 3ft sets for friday before a new episode arrives saturday.
east facing shores are presently very stormy with short period windswell that is above the 8ft face value for the affected shorelines. this will continue into friday and surf may even approach warning level conditions of 15ft face values.
friday will northern shores 2-3ft with sideshore winds and easterly swell wrap mixing in. eastern shores will see solid 4-6ft surf with sets near 8ft and very stormy conditions. winds will be a major factor from the east.
Posted by megaprober at 06:33 PM
January 03, 2007
1/4
THURSDAY...continued decline of surf from the west-nortwest.
the current swell from the west-northwest will drop to the 6-8ft range by tomorrow morning and perhaps even further by the afternoon. buoy 1 readings are way down from yesturday indicating that the main episode of the swell has passed and on the way out.
in other wave news, the east facing shores may see some advisary level surf by the afternoon as winds kick up to the 20-25mph range. a fast moving high pressure to the north will mix with an area of low pressure to the southeast and cause a steep pressure gradient in the vicinity of the islands. this will cause strong and gusty winds and whip up windswell both near and upstream of the islands.
the call is for 6-8ft surf along northern shores and building 4-6ft surf along eastern shore if the above mentioned forecast comes through.
Posted by megaprober at 06:28 PM
January 02, 2007
1/3
WEDNSDAY...the large west-northwest swell has peaked and will be on the way down over the next few days.
becuase the current swell was generated over a long fetch area and during a two day period, it is good reason to think that it will stick around over the next two days or so. on a personal basis observatios from yours truly can attest that there foreunners of this swell two days prior to the actual main episode, therefore again, it is likely to take time to peter out.
looking ahead about a day or so conditions are likely to change and the favorable winds that have graced the islands are going to radically change and start howling bringing some of the strongest wind the islands have seen in some time. due to a low pressure moving east, north of the state, a strong pressure gradient will set up ahead and over the islands causing the trades to go nuclear. with such strong winds in the vicinity there will likely be advisary or even warning level surf along eastern shorelines.
for tomorrow the call is for solid 8-12ft surf in the morning dropping all day to near advisary level conditions (8ft on the local scale). winds will start blowing to near 30mph from the east.
Posted by megaprober at 09:11 PM