February 28, 2007
THURSDAY...surf will be small on both northern and southern shores as there are no groundswells currently affecting hawaii.
eastern shores will see the largest size as windswell will be near advisary levels.
Posted by megaprober at 05:39 PM
February 25, 2007
skunked...small waves
MONDAY...unusually small surf for the north pacific for the rest of the week.
dismal surf in store for the start of the week. northern shore will be lucky to see three footoers rolling through at select spots. a small west-northwesterly swell associated with a storm in the very far distant northwest pacific will arrive providing sporadic surf in the 2-3ft range. given the remote distance and short time of wave production this swell will be nothing more than an infrequent bump for west facing shallow reefs. rockies and sunset point will be likely suspects picking up the swell, but expect plenty of company at those spots.
wind will be trades so expect the usual chop.
got skunked at the contest today as they postponed and then decided to run. oh well....next time you bastards.
Posted by megaprober at 06:55 PM
February 21, 2007
THURSDAY...surf will continue along the eastern shores with rough and choppy conditions.
the high pressure system north of hawaii will maintain its grip in the northern pacific ensuring strong and gusty trades for another day. rain squalls with periods of sun will accompany those on the windward sides of the islands. surf will 3-5ft on the east facing shores with choppy conditions.
the north shore will see small surf associated with windswell wrap and a small west-northwest swell. expect nothing larger than three feet out there.
an out of season south swell will start to move in along southern shores producing the odd three footer here and there.
Posted by megaprober at 09:02 PM
February 20, 2007
WEDNESDAY...windy conditions with rough easterly surf and small west-northwesterly swell.
the central pacific north of hawaii is occupied by a larger high pressure area that is responsible for the strong and blustery trades as well as the accompanying windswell. wednesday looks no different as surf from roughly 80deg will continue to affect east shorelines producing surf in the 4-5ft range with rough and challenging conditions.
a small west-northwesterly swell will keep fun surf along northern shores in the 2-4ft range at select reefs, however the strong trades are likley to keep plenty of chop around creating less than optimum conditions.
an out of season south swell will start to move in along southern shores producing the odd three footer here and there.
Posted by megaprober at 07:15 PM
February 18, 2007
bodysurfing contest
:shock: bodysurfed the contest yestuday. there were four rescues and one guy with a bruised and bloodied back. the conditions went from fun in the morning to crazy knarly conditions in the afternoon. my heat was the third to last of the day and i was tired from practicing in the morning. i can say that it was one of the most tiring experience i've had in quite sometime and since i advanced i wasn't stoked to have to go out today when it was going to be even bigger. they postpomed the contest until next sunday so i was stoked.
Posted by megaprober at 11:29 AM
February 15, 2007
2/16/2007
FRIDAY...surf will continue to be large out of the west-northwest.
the large west-northwest groundswell still has some meat left in it as recent buoy reports are indicating. buoy 1 is still registering powerful long period energy associated with the swell that was generated from a system that formed off of japan about four days ago. the system maintained strength for well over 48hrs as it moved across the pacific. it also stayed over previously agitated seas which explains the size and consistent power of the groundswell. look for surf to be in the 10ft range with some outer reef excitement, although it will be smaller than today. winds should be good in the monrning.
Posted by megaprober at 09:44 PM
February 12, 2007
2/13/07
MONDAY...small to moderate surf will continue to affect the north shore for monday.
a distant storm formed off the coast of northern japan approcimately three days ago that generated the current swell affecting northern shores locally. the sytem gained strength on wednesday and into thursday. the system remained relatively disorganized, but did build open ocean seas to near 25ft. with a given travel distance of near 2200nm over the past few days, the swell has lost a considerable amount of energy. surf locally has remained in the 2-4ft range at most locations and will continue into tomorrw as distant swells such as these tend to spread out into similar bands of energy.
the call is for 2-4ft surf with good conditions due to the southeasterly winds that are associated with a weak front north of kauai.
Posted by megaprober at 09:39 PM
February 09, 2007
2/10/07
SATURDAY...surf to drop slightly as the current swell continues its decline and a new north-nortwesterly swell moves in.
surfline models are not doing a good job showing the origin of this new swell, however wavewatch 3 models are predicting that a 6ft swell out 350deg is due to start affecting shoreline locally by mid-day saturday. the swell looks to be a short period swell with the main energy swath in the 10-12sec bands. this is indicative of source closer to the islands than the current long period northwest swell that has been around for the last two days.
surf will be 6-8ft from two directions on saturday with plenty of consistency and decent conditions if the winds go trades.
Posted by megaprober at 05:52 PM
February 08, 2007
pipe a go!
FRIDAY...surf will drop substantially for friday.
recent buoy observations from buoy are indicating that the swell will be large in the AM with sets near 10ft, but then surf will rapidly decline. bouy 1 has shown that the peak of the swell occured today and has been steadily on the decrease. power reading have also dropped since last night's reading of near 80 megahertz/ meter sq of ocean surface lift.
look for surf to be in the 6-8ft range with larer sets in the morning and with gradually improving conditions with the passing of the front. the pipe contest will definitely be a go!
Posted by megaprober at 09:21 PM
February 07, 2007
THURSDAY...large surf will affect north and west shores for the next few days.
the first swell in a series of two peaked on tuesday and declined on wednesday providing surf in the 6-8ft range with larger sets.
the second swell did not have the ingredients for producing epic groundswell as it was closer and more rapid in its advance across the pacific, however it will produce large sets near 15ft for the patient. the afternoon on wednesday has seen a siginficant rise on both surf heights and power at buoy 1 indicating that the next swell has arrived. because the system associated with the swell moved rapidly in the direction of hawaii surf may arrive from different timed during swell production meaning that the initial long period swell trains may arrive simultaneaously with the closer more recent surf produced when the system was closer to hawaii. the result will be crossed up swell with sets that appear to "double up" on themselves.
look for surf near the warning threshold of 15ft on the outer reefs with strong and hazardous currents and wave runups at the usual locations. winds may be unfavorable in the morning until they transit over to more easterly trades.
Posted by megaprober at 05:58 PM
February 06, 2007
good to tow
WEDNESDAY...large surf will affect north and west shores for the next few days.
two large winter storm systems formed in the northwestern pacific over the past few days. the first of the two is currently sending swell that is showing surf in the 10-12ft range at the largest spots along the north shore out of 300-320deg. good conditions prevailed as an approaching front is allowing for southerly winds to blow. conditions should stay good for at least the early morning on wednesday.
the first system formed off northern japan an rapidly intensified enroute across the northwest pacific. as progresses it maintained a course roughly in the direction of hawaii thus allowing significant building of ocean swell. with open ocean heights nearing 30ft or more the swell was able to remain fueled by the system for oner 1000nm aross the pacific, thus allowing little in the way of wave decay.
the swell should peak on tuesday and greet morning dawn patrolers on wednesday with clean surf in the 10-12ft range as the swell is reinforced by a slightly larger swell just on its heels.
the second swell did not have the ingredients for producing epic groundswell as it was closer and more rapid in its advance across the pacific, however it will produce large sets near 15ft for the patient. assuming that the winds stay light there could be some good tow-surfing in the morning
Posted by megaprober at 05:17 PM
February 03, 2007
SUNDAY...surf will drop slightly to the 6-8ft range.
conditions will still be thrashed as northerly winds will be blasting although later in the day they may improve as winds are going to start to veer toward the east.
Posted by megaprober at 01:52 PM