March 29, 2007
3/30/07
FRIDAY...a new northwest swell is going to fill in overnight and produce surf in the 3-5ft range at most locations along northern shores by morning.
the northwest swell was generated from a nearby source with a close proximity to the islands. the swell is associated with the low pressure system immediatly north of the islands that is currently affecting weather locally. surf was generated on the western quadrant of the system about 800nm out. given the close source for the swell there is a chance surf may be larger than expected and slightly disorganized as the swell will not have had ample time to spread out into energy bands of similar wave periods. buoy 1 is alreading reading long period wave energy from this swell, therefore the forecast is to have the swell fill in overnight and produce surf by morning.
look for solid 5ft surf for the dawn patrol with larger sets at north facing reefs. winds should be light or calm producing smooth sonditions for the morning until the seabreezes set in.
Posted by megaprober at 06:35 PM
March 26, 2007
TUESDAY...small surf for the day island wide.
surf will drop down to the waist to head high range along northern shores as the current west-northwesterly swell moves out. recent buoy reports are showing virtually no groundswell at the northern bouy. observations are showing a slight increase in waveheights originating from the east-southeast which translates to recent trade wind swell gerated over the past few days locally and upstream (east) of the islands.
southern bouys are also absent of groundswell indicating that there will be residual background swell from unknown sources producing surf in the 1 to occ 2ft range at select south facing reefs.
windward shores will drop as the tradewinds are going away as a result of low pressure systems moving in north and west of the islands.
look for light winds going variable with seabreezes likely for the afternoons for the next week or so.
Posted by megaprober at 10:40 PM
March 24, 2007
sunset and jockos with current
SUNDAY...surf to remain near 3ft at most northern spots. winds will be making choppy conditions once again and crowds will be there in full force. eastern shores near 3ft as well with trade swell and southern shores 1-2 and backing off.
surfed sunset and jockos. sunset was near 4ft with plenty older gruffs with way more board then neccessary. jocks was frustrating due to small size, backing off and a non-friendly current. girls getting sucked out as i was paddling in, although a lifeguard fetched them.
Posted by megaprober at 07:52 PM
March 22, 2007
FRIDAY...surf to bottom out with minimal surf on all shores.
the north shore will be flat to a foot with possible minimal trade wrap. the east shore will be 1-3ft with weak onshore conditions and the south shore will be 1-2ft at the largest spots. all in all a poor day for surf.
Posted by megaprober at 10:56 PM
March 21, 2007
THURSDAY...small surf island wide as there are no real swell producers locally.
current weather maps are showing a large high pressure system anchored northeast of the islands dominating the eastern north pacific. this weather feature will keep strong and gusty trades around the both locally and upstream. this will in turn keep a constant source of waves along eastern shores. a moderate swell is forecasted to arrive late friday from the northwest which will boost surf to near 5ft.
look for small surf along north, south, and west shore while east facing shores will be head high to slightly over head. trades are the call for thursday.
Posted by megaprober at 08:51 PM
March 19, 2007
TUESDAY...smaller surf for the forecast period. the current west-northwest swell is on the way out as indicated by recent dropping buoy readings. bouy 1 is showing less long period energy and increasing short period energy associated with the rebuilding tradewinds. the swell that arrived on sunday reached near 12ft at some locations along northern shores and was apparently large enough to send some big wave surfers that don't tow out west which tells me that the swell was most likely bigger than anticipated. surf from this episode is in it's last phase and residual surf may linger into the morning hours on tuesday. surf should be in the 2-4ft range early and on the decrease most of the day. blown out conditions will prevail as the trades have come back with a vengence. a large and powerful high pressure has built north of the islands and will influence the weather for the next few days.
a small south-southwest swell may add a push along southern shores. this swell was generated by a large system that was moving through the tasman sea last week. as with most swells from this region there are many obstacles that must be dealt with before the swell arrives locally. something tells me that this swell may be larger than expected as the system was large and had a well established fetch before moving over new zealand.
winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:29 PM
March 17, 2007
SUNDAY...surf to jump along northern and western shores as a new west-northwest swell arrives on sunday.
a moderate swell was generated wednesday into thursday approximately 1500nm and 305deg relative to oahu. winds of system rapidly intensified to near 55mph over a relatively short fetch of less than 500nm for nearly 8hrs. this is a major limiting factor on swell production, therefore surf much over advisary levels is unlikely. winds over much of the other surface areas were near 40mph which was sufficiant enough to agitate seas to near 20ft.
look for surf to rise by morning, as bouy 1 is already registering long period energy, to heights of near 4ft local style. surf will continue to build to near 8ft by the afternoon with possible ten foot bombs at select areas that ceate ideal refraction influences on the larger long period sets associated with the short burst of extreme winds.
winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:36 PM
March 16, 2007
SATURDAY...small waves for the north shore as a new small west-northwest swell moves in.
surf will be in the 1-3ft range at the largest spots. winds are going to start blowing trades.
Posted by megaprober at 05:49 PM
March 13, 2007
giant stuff
WEDNESDAY...giant surf affecting the north shore at the time of this writing.
buoy 1 went off like a comet registering surf heights of near 24ft around noon time today. surf on the north shore was in the double overhead range by the afternoon, however looking at the current readings at the waimea buoy, there are readings in excess of 15ft after 5pm tuesday afternoon. current information from that buoy is showing a peak at near 18ft around 7pm. given that buoy 1 peaked near noon today, best estimates are that the swell will peak overnight between 8-12pm with sets locally near 25ft at some of the outer reefs. near shore areas around ke iki are likely to see some serious wave runups into front yards. roads may also be affected at the usual areas.
wednesday will see the largest waves in the morning with possible leftover 18-20ft sets, but with rapidly diminishing wave heights. the winds are likely to have some westerly component in them.
Posted by megaprober at 09:55 PM
March 12, 2007
Honolua Bay
TUESDAY...one last day of small surf before a massive west-northwest swell takes over late tuesday with larger than predicted surf.
tuesday will see residual surf in the 2-3ft range out of the north with poor conditions due to southwesterly winds associated with a front that is presently over kauai. the front is expected to move slowly down the island chain producing wet conditions with kona winds. whether or not the front moves through in time for the swell to be ridable on the north shore remains questionable at this time.
finally got a chance to ride honolua bay. conditions were smooth and glassy 2-3ft with semi-crowded condtions. somehow manages to get three waves connecting from the point all the way past the cave. it is a matter of drop in and drive as far as you can go. the wave is so makeable it isn't even funny.
Posted by megaprober at 05:46 PM
March 09, 2007
jute off island until the 13th
gone for work until tuesday the 13th. keep surfing!!!
Posted by megaprober at 03:11 PM
March 05, 2007
TUESDAY... new swell in store for both the north and south shores.
buoy 1 is currently registering long period energy in the 15sec band indicating that the a new swell is on the way. the swell was likely generated off the coast of japan friday into saturday by a storm that had significant gales for about a day an half. given the travel time of over 2000nm, the swell has had time to spread out appopriately into energy bands of similar wave periods. the resulting effect will be the larger long period swells arriving first followed by the main swath of consistent swell of 4-6ft in the 14-16sec energy bands.
southern shore are seeing a slowly building swell generated off the eastern coast of new zealand. this swell should hang in there for at least a couple days producing surf in the head high range along the prime south shore reefs.
winds are locally being affected by funky weather due to an approaching front due to arrive on friday.
the call is to look for 4-5ft surf on the north shore with good to epic conditions prior to the seabreezes setting in. southern shores a soft 2-3ft at the most rightous reefs.
Posted by megaprober at 09:01 PM
March 04, 2007
MONDAY...residual surf will continue on the north shore with a west-northwest producing surf in the 2-4ft range.
the system located in the far northwestern pacific was responsible for today's bump in the surf that peaked around noon with sets approaching the 5ft catagory. because the swell was produced remotely there should be some swell energy aroung for the morning. distant swells generally spread out in their travel across the ocean with the larger waves moving the fastest and the smaller period swells lagging behind. sunday saw the initial arrival of the long period forerunners. monday will see some sets left over as the swell fades out.
a new south swell that was generated near the 28th of february will start to arrive along southern shores. long period energy has not yet registered at buoy 2 and with bouy 28 out of commision for the time being, determining swell time arrivals from the south pacific is a just a matter of waiting for it to show up.
for monday look for fun surf along the north shore with good clean conditions. other shores will be small, but clean.
Posted by megaprober at 09:51 PM
March 01, 2007
FRIDAY...a small bump along the north shore. east facing shores to remain stormy and near 4ft.
a small swell will fill in along northern shores that was generated in the far northwestern pacific on sunday. the storm produced a semi-powerful open ocean swell with seas approaching r 30ft. due to the long distance of travel, approximately 2200nm, surf reaching hawaii will be near 4ft maximum at select west facing reefs. bouy 1, at the time of this writing, has not begun to register much in the way of long period swell, however distant groundswells such as these may arrive late due to swell production being smaller than anticipated. in terms of north swells this one is about as remote as they get and to further short change the situation the duration of swell production was not very long, meaning less than 24hrs.
look for rising surf in the 2-3ft range at select west facing reefs. winds are modeled to begin a slow decrease, but they wil still be around for the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 08:27 PM