April 30, 2007
TUESDAY...one more day of small surf before new northwest south swell takes over.
wavewatch 3 models are indicating that both the north and south swells are due to start moving beneath their respective buoy indicators just after midnight on tuesday. given the usual eight hour travel time there should be waves by wednesday morning.
the call is for south shores to see some possible forerunners possible before dark pushing surf near the three foot threshold or head high range. northern shore won't see much until early wednesday morning so for tuesday look for minimal surf there.
winds will clocking poweful trades for most of the day and week for that matter.
Posted by megaprober at 10:57 PM
April 29, 2007
MONDAY...small surf island wide as no significant groundswells will be affecting shores locally.
monday will be the calm before the storm as they say. two swells are due to arrive on tuesday into wednesday. a mederate swell from the northwest and large swell from the south both will begin to arrive late tuesday night into wednesday. with the equatorial bouy out, there is no indication to the size and duration of the swell at this point and we will have no true arrival time of the swell until the swell trains travel under bouy 2.
for monday look for surf to be 1-2ft along both northern and southern shores. eastern shore will be 1-3ft.
Posted by megaprober at 10:21 PM
SUNDAY...northern shores to maintain swell in the 2-3ft range at the largest spots.
the swell was generated from a storm that moved into the gulf of alaska late last week. the primary swath of the swell was aimed toward north america, however due to radial speading of the swell trains hawaii caught the western edge of the swell.
look for three foot surf with choppy conditions as the day wears on as a new tradewind episode begins.
Posted by megaprober at 01:03 AM
April 25, 2007
THURSDAY...northwest swell to drop. southerly swell to stay near two feet and windward shores to decline.
the current northwest swell has just about ran out of steam and will drop to near chest high levels for thursday. recent buoy observations are still showing some swell arriving from 345-355deg with open ocean waveheights near 6ft. however buoy 1 is showing little in the way of long period swell energy and windswell there is now registering as the dominant energy source. as these are a sign of things to come it is reasonable to conclude that less energy is on the way.
southern shores are staying near the chest high range from both distant southerly swell sources and windswell wrappage.
a strong high pressure north of the islands will edge slowy eastward allowing the trades to begin a slight declining episode forecasted to last until saturday when another large high pressure system moves in north of the islands.
looking down the road, there is evidence of strong and powerful storm activity east of new zealand that may send the first legitamate four foot southy.
for thursday look for small conditions island wide with the usual tradwinds affect the usual suspects.
Posted by megaprober at 06:39 PM
April 23, 2007
TUESDAY...surf to continue large along northern shores.
the swell that arrived on monday producing near warning level surf will slowly subside overnight, yet still remain large for tuesday. the swell was produced by a storm that moved in the direction of hawii for well over two days, so it is reasonable to expect surf to hang around at least that long. recent buoy observations are indicating that the swell most likely peaked today and will drop overnight. reports today indicated that waves were near 12ft on the local scale and there may have even been some 15ft sets at select spots. this was slightly larger than forecasted and very large for late april. forecast models are favoring a much weaker storm track for the next week or so thus surf will be more typical of april...that being an eight foot swell is a rarity.
for tuesday look for solid 6-8ft surf with larger sets in the morning and the general trend on the decline.
windward shores are looking to build as the tradewinds will increase into wednesday.
winds will strengthen in the 15-25mph range.
Posted by megaprober at 06:40 PM
April 22, 2007
MONDAY...surf to rebound on northern shores as another west-northwest swell arrives.
a powerful west-northwest swell was generated from a storm that formed in the northwest pacific over the weekend. the system formed off the coast of northern japan and traveled along 40deg north latitude toward the dateline. in many respects the system was similar to the storm that generated saturday's swell, with the exception that it was more compact and better organized. the result will be a slightly larger swell arriving late sunday night into monday bringing surf to near the 10ft threshold with possible larger sets. there will be more outer reef activity and more consistentcy with this swell as opposed to saturday's swell. buoy 1 started registering long period swell in the 20-22sec energy bands early this afternoon indicating that that swell has arrived a little early. generally, as a rule of thumb, this can indicate larger swell a travel time associated with larger and faster moving swell trains.
for monday look for solid 8-10ft surf with most of the usual spots closed out and dangerous. there will some outer reef activity and small waimea or more like good pinballs.
winds will strengthen in the 15-25mph range.
Posted by megaprober at 08:21 PM
SUNDAY...continued surf along northern shores near advisary levels.
surf will stay solid along the north shore on sunday as the current west-northwest swell peaks overnight. saturday saw a new swell arrive that pushed surf heights over the advisary level criteria of fifteen feet on the face. the swell was generated by a powerful storm off the coast of japan late last week that traveled west to east across the north pacific before dissapating near the dateline in the gulf of alaska. surf generated consisted of long period poweful swell that had unusually long lulls in terms of north shore standards. typical of far away storm is that only the brutest of sets will makle the journey as we commonly see with south swells here in the islands. today was typical of that, as the ocean seemed nearly flat and then every thirty minutes or so a massive set nearly three times the size of the normal surf would arrive and pop off the outer reefs. sunday should see less of the sneaker sets and more consistent, but smaller surf in the 4-6ft range at select west facing reefs.
southern shores will see surf in the 2-3ft range at the largest spots.
windward shores will see tradewind swell in the 2-3ft range and choppy.
winds will be trades 10-20mph.
Posted by megaprober at 12:09 AM
April 18, 2007
THURSDAY...surf along northern shores to drop as there is a break between swell, although some trade swell wrap may continue at certain select reefs that favor northeasterly swell.
southern shores will see a bump in the 2-3ft range as result of a new groudswell that was associated with a storm off the east coast of new zealand late last week.
windsward shores should still see rough and choppy surf in the 2-4ft range.
Posted by megaprober at 06:43 PM
April 16, 2007
TUESDAY...surf to bump up on northern shores.
a new northwest swell is due to arrive late monday into tuesday morning producing moderate surf. the swell was generatd by a storm that formed on friday and tracked along 45deg latitiude across the northwestern pacific basin. as it moved, a captured fetch was set up and seas were generated in the 15-25ft range on the open ocean scale. although the system moved out of the hawaii swell window by sunday and aimed the largest surf at points north of hawaii, there should be ample swell arriving from the initial phase of the system. surf is already hitting buoy 1 and should arrive by tuesday morning. look for surf in the 3-5ft range with the odd bigger set at select spots. winds are very strong at the moment and will stay that way for another day or so. expect very choppy conditions along the north shore.
windward shores will be nearly victory at sea due to the strong and gusty trades. surf locally will be in the solid 4-6ft range along east shores with very hazardous conditions and possible significant beach erosion.
southern shore will be small with a few infrequent sets at select locations.
Posted by megaprober at 11:33 PM
April 12, 2007
FRIDAY...surf will drop further on northernshores to the 1-3ft range with the occasional larger set.
surf along the southern shores will be 1-3ft as well with the continuation of the long lived south-southeasterly swell.
wind should be good in the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 08:02 PM
April 11, 2007
4/12/07
THURSDAY...dropping surf along north shores. southern shores hanging in there with infrequent moderate sets.
northern shores saw a swell arrive on wednesday approaching the 5ft catagory late in the day. the swell was produced by a moderate storm tracking west to east across the north pacific about 1000nm out. the storm produced favorable swell in the 310-330deg bands relative to hawaii on the 9th of april for about 24hrs or so. models had the swell forecasted a bit larger than expected, but a hunch tells me that the swell may have been a bit tardy on its arrival time and may peak overnight.
southern shores saw surf in the 2-3ft range from a system that was in action about a week ago south of hawaii about 4000nm. although the swell was aimed at central america, angular spreading of the larger swell trains has given hawaii some bonus surf. as a witness at sandy beach today, i can attest that there was some serious sets rolling in at the shorebreak.
look for surf near 5ft along the north shore and on the decline for the rest of the day. southern shores will see a continuation of long period, low frequency sets hitting south-southeasterly favoring reefs.
wind should be good in the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 08:45 PM
April 09, 2007
4/10/07
TUESDAY...massive northwest swell on the way out. new wide angle south-southeast to move in.
wavewatch 3 models are in agreement to a sharp drop in wavehieghts along northern shores. given the last reports from buoy 1 this seems consistent with the forecast. the system assocciated with the swell was given a few additional boosts from various sources, however those additional influxes of energy were not strong enough to maintain much swell beyond moderate swell heights, meaning that surf will be slightly overhead for the next day or so.
south shores are likely to see rising surf from the south-southesterly direction with a swell associated from a powerful storm that raged across the south pacific. although the swell was aimed more toward the americas, angular spreading of the larger swell trains will ensure hawaii some infrequent, yet moderate sets at select locations that favor swell from 150-170deg.
for tuesday look for solid 5ft leftover set waves along northern shores and 2-3ft surf with occasional larger sets at select south-southeast favoring reefs. winds should favor the usual spots.
Posted by megaprober at 09:43 PM
April 08, 2007
easter sunday
SUNDAY...large swell on the way and is likley to start cranking by noon or soon after.
a large swell was generated from a typhoon that went extra-tropical on friday. generally when this occurs the result is often stronger than usual north pacific storms for that time of year. this is usually more common in the fall, but we'll take what we can get even though it is april. the system reintesisified on fridan and into saturday as headed on an eastward track across the pacific.
buoy 1 shot up in the wee hours of the morning registering open ocean heights of near 15ft. given the time travel needed to affect shores locally, the best guess is a peak in swell heights early this evening. the swell appeared to peak around 9am sunday morning at buoy 1.
look for large surf near 15ft on the outer reefs with a quick rise in surf throughout the day sunday. winds will be light easterlies.
Posted by megaprober at 12:37 PM
April 05, 2007
epic surf
FRIDAY...surf to remain near advisary levels for friday.
a large storm in the far northwestern pacific produced an initial groundswell that was aimed in the direction of hawaii relative to 325deg. as the swell progressed across the northwest pacific it received an additional boost from two sources. the first was a small batch of winds approaching 40mph on the 1st and 2nd of april and the second area was an area of lighter winds approximately 30mph about 800nm northwest of the islands. between these areas of swell generation, hawaii received a healthy dose of northwesterly swell on wednesday that apprached advisary level surf. this swell should be long-lived and keep surf near advisary levels until saturday when a much larger swell moves in late that night.
look for solid surf out of the northwest near advisary levels holding steady through late friday night. winds should be light creating epic morning conditions.
Posted by megaprober at 06:49 PM
April 04, 2007
WEDNESDAY...surf in the 3-5ft range along northern shore and on the rise. look for surf to be near 6ftout od the northwest and continue to rise into friday approaching 8ft.
Posted by megaprober at 10:57 AM
April 02, 2007
northerly winds
TUESDAY...surf on the way down for northern shores. southern shores to hang in there with infrequent sets to near head high.
northern shores will see surf from at least two sources both of which will be on a slow decline.
the north swell, associated with a low pressure system to the north, will continue to produce surf, but will be on the way out as the system weakens and starts to drift off to the east. surf from this source will be chopped up and disorganized due to northerly winds that are currently affecting the islands state wide. those winds will gradually steer toward a more easterly direction as the week continues.
a more westerly swell is also producing surf in the 2-3ft range. this swell will also be on the decline as the swell peaked on monday in the 6ft range at select spots.
southern shores will see long period energy producing surf at select reefs near the head high range. the swell was produced by a large storm east of new zealand that focused the primary swath of energy toward central america.
look for surf in the 2-4ft range with lousy conditions along the north shore and surf in the 1-3ft range with good conditions along southern shores.
Posted by megaprober at 09:00 PM
April 01, 2007
MONDAY...a new north swell will fill in overnight and produce surf near the six foot range at north facing reefs.
a swell was generated from a storm north of the hawaiian islands about 800nm. open ocean waveheights were near 20ft and aimed in the direction of hawaii roughly 360deg relative to oahu. waveheights at buoy 1 have climbed significantly upwards to near 10ft. because the swell is aproaching the islands from the north buoy 1 does not provide the usual time scale for surf time travel. it is reasonable to assume that waves will arrive simultaneously with buoy 1.
look for surf to be 4-6ft at the usual north facing reefs with the odd larger set. conditions will be marginal with northerly winds in the morning. it will also be cold.
Posted by megaprober at 06:43 PM