May 30, 2007
THURSDAY...small pulses should move in for thursday a special day for me and clint eastwood...b-day.
a small northwesterly swell is registering on the waimea buoy out 350deg with wave periods near 10sec and heights of 3ft. surf locally will be in the 1-3ft range along the north shore basically keeping it just out of the flat to a foot range.
another small south swell has arrived as evident by the kewalo wave platform and the lanai buoy. both areas are picking up 15sec wave periods with wave heights of near 3ft. surf should peak later today and be around for thursday providing fun surf in the 2-3ft range with the occasional larger set. the system associated with the swell was a large powerful winter storm down under that aimed the primary swell swath well east of hawaii to central america, therefore hawaii is likely to see wave from the result of angular spreading or just large sets that have enough power to spread to laterally.
winds should be light trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:32 PM
May 28, 2007
test
Posted by megaprober at 11:25 AM
May 25, 2007
SATURDAY...a north swell arrived on friday pushing surf heights locally into the 2-3ft range at select spots. buoy observations from buoy 1 and the waimea buoy indicate that the swell should peak overnight locally and be on the way down by morning.
the system associated with the swell was a typhoon that went xtra-tropical as it moved into the north pacific. as a rule we generally look for these for swell potential in the fall when the north pacific is otherwise calm. this system did not intensify into a large scal low pressure system as they often do in the fall. a moderate batch of winds did develop in a favorable position for hawaii producing surf in the 2-3ft range. as mentioned previously the swell appears to have peaked and should be on the way down.
the lanai buoy is still showing some southerly groundswell that should keep surf near the head high range along southern shores.
the trades have returned and along with them easterly winds swell is on the rise and should be near head high by saturday and remain that way for several days.
Posted by megaprober at 10:11 PM
May 22, 2007
WEDNESDAY...a new northwest swell will arrive by morning along northern shores.
recent buoy observations from both the waimea buoy and buoy 1 suggest that groundswell is currently starting to arrive locally. wave heights at buoy 1 have increased from 2.5ft to near 7ft. directional spectrum readings at both localities confirm that the swell is arriving out of the northwest at 319deg.
the system associated with the swell formed about three day ago near 40deg north latitude about 1200nm out. the system had marginal winds near 30mph over a 24hr period. very weak in terms of north pacific storms. nevertheless it traveled in the direction of hawaii while in action and generated a small swell the will fill in overnight and greet dawn patrolers with 1-3ft surf with the occasional larger set at west facing localities. the swell should peak during the day near 3ft.
on southern shores a new swell from the south may start to fill in with initial forerunners later in the day helping to bump consistency a bit. surf along the south shore should remain near head high for the day.
conditions should be good in the morning as the winds have one more day of light and variable conditions before the trades return.
Posted by megaprober at 09:39 PM
May 21, 2007
TUESDAY...small southerly swell to continue for the day.
the current south swell should hang around in the 2-3ft range at most locations keeping one more day of nice smooth conditons in the morning with small but very ridable surf along southern shores.
the system was generated over a week ago off the eastern coast of new zealand. the system generated open ocean swell heigthts of near 35ft with possible larger seas over a brief period of 12-18hrs. the swell registered nicely at the new lanai buoy with a peak in surf late this afternoon near 4ft for open ocean swell heights. buoy 2 is also showing a spike in the 15sec energy band which is consistent with the lanai buoy readings.
surf should hold into tuesday and be slowly on the decline before a new swell arrives from the south pushing surf back to the 2-4ft range on wednesday. the system associated with this episode followed on the heals of the previous storm that was responsible for the weekend's episode.
in th long range there looks to be more action associated with two back to back systems in the north pacific as we get one last gasp of surf before the north bore sets in. winds will be light and variable for one more day.
Posted by megaprober at 09:53 PM
May 19, 2007
SUNDAY...a new south swell is due to arrive over the weekend.
saturday saw the beginning of a new swell episode arriving out of the south from 180-195deg on the compass. recently, new information associated with a new buoy off lanai and the fixing of the wave platform off the kewalo basin has allowed for detailed accurate surf predictions for south swells.
the lanai buoy is clearly registering long period energy associated with the south swell with 17-19sec bands. because the lanai buoy is well protected from the easterly trades and north swell, the swell heights registered there are primarily from southerly ground swell. curretly swell heights near two feet are being observed which is in agreement with the general forecast. wave heights of this sort will generally translate into chest to head hight surf at exposed spots along southern shores.
for sunday look for increasing southerly swell near head high at most spots with excellent conditions early in the morning as there will be no winds. watch out for sea breezes later in the day.
Posted by megaprober at 11:24 PM
May 17, 2007
FRIDAY...another small day in paradise. the only real ridable waves will be a very small southerly swell that was generated over a week ago off new zealand. waves are looking to return on sunday when a new south swell is due to arrive pushing surf just below advisary levels.
Posted by megaprober at 09:45 PM
May 16, 2007
THURSDAY...very weak surf for the next couple of days.
the north pacific is showing typical summer behavior with a large vacancy of low pressure systems. for the next four days nothing is showing in the models for the north pacific so we can conclude no surf production from there...nuff said.
southern shore are going to be small for the next five days a no significant swell producers have occured over the last week. however, by sunday a new swell should arrive puching surf to near advaisary levels.
for thursday look for flat to two feet along northern shores with a small residual swell from the west-northwest and from the northwest keeping very select areas near knee high. southern shores near waist high and eastern shores near waist high. winds easterly 10-20mph.
Posted by megaprober at 09:47 PM
May 15, 2007
TUESDAY...very weak surf for the next couple of days.
the north pacific is showing typical summer behavior with a large vacancy of low pressure systems. for the next four days nothing is showing in the models for the north pacific so we can conclude no surf production from there...nuff said.
southern shore are going to be small for the next five days a no significant swell producers have occured over the last week. however, by sunday a new swell should arrive puching surf to near advaisary levels.
for tueday look for flat to two feet along northern shores with a small residual swell from the west-northwest and from the northwest keeping very select areas near knee high. southern shores near waist high and eastern shores near waist high. winds easterly 10-20mph.
Posted by megaprober at 10:11 PM
May 12, 2007
next update on tuesday...small waves for the period.
Posted by megaprober at 07:30 PM
next update on tuesday...small waves for the period.
Posted by megaprober at 07:30 PM
May 10, 2007
FRIDAY...small northesterly swell to continue on northern shores.
a small long-lived northeasterly swell has been generated by a small area of winds about 300-500nm northeast of the islands and has been sending ample supply of short period quasi-windsell. this pattern will continue for another day or so keeping the north shore just above the flat catagory.
windward shores will start to drop as the trades begin to deteriorate. the high pressure north of the islands will be replaced by a weak low pressure system that will lessen the trades temporarily.
southern shores will continue small as there are no significant swells in the near future.
Posted by megaprober at 06:56 PM
May 07, 2007
TUESDAY...small surf 'round the island.
there are no real significant swells due to arrive in the islands for at least five days. the north pacific has remained very quiet for the first week of may with a high pressure system occupying the better part of the northwestern pacific ranging from japan all the way to the gulf of alaska. recent forecast models from wavewatch3 as well as buoyweather marine charts are all indicating that there is little in the way of swell producers in the north pacific for the forecast period.
souther shores are not looking much better as any storms over the next five day are looking weak and unorganized and lastly poorly aimed in the direction of hawaii.
the call is for knee to waist on all shores with the biggest surf along the eastern shores associated with the prevailing trade winds.
Posted by megaprober at 06:48 PM
May 02, 2007
THURSDAY...surf to possibly build along southern shores as the islands await the arrival of the much anticipated south swell. north shores on the way down.
south facing shores are forecasted to receive a south swell that was generated about a week ago off new zealand. tahiti did receive some solid surf in the 10-12ft range, however it lies in a more favorable directional band in relation to the path of the traveling swell trains so it is likely surf hit more directly there.
surf from the system was best aimed toward central america thus leaving hawaii on the western fringe of the swell swath. recent buoy observations from both buoy 2 and buoy 4 are not showing much in the way of long period energy indicating that the swell either has not arrived or that there is minimal energy in the long period wave bands i.e... not much swell. given the eight hour travel time, there is little hope that the morning will be much different unless the swell swings in overnight. wavewatch 3 forecast models, however, are calling for the swell arrival to be on thursday so things could change overnight.
the call is for southern shores to be 2-4ft tomorrow later in the day and for northern shores to come down substantially from today and drop into the 3ft range by the afternoon.
winds will be strong trades.
Posted by megaprober at 10:22 PM
May 01, 2007
new swell for both north and south shores
WEDNESDAY...new swell on the horizon for both north and south shores.
recent observations from buoy 1 indicate that the expected northwest swell is on the way with long period swell in the 15sec range registering since early this evening. the waimea buoy is now reporting swell period of 15sec as well, so it is a sure bet that the morning will see surf in the 4-6ft range at select reefs.
recent observations from buoy 2 are not showing the much anticipated south swell that is due to arrive by morning. best guess so far is that the swell may arrive overnight and be slowly on the rise for wednesday. surf in the four foot range may not start filling in until late in the day.
for wednseday look for 4-6ft surf along northern shores ans 2-3ft surf along southern shores and on the rise. winds will be blowing trades near 30mph in some locations.
Posted by megaprober at 10:39 PM