June 30, 2007
SUNDAY...building southerly swell for the day.
a powerful winter storm formed in the tasman sea about five days ago that crossed new zealand and regained strength. the storm packed winds of near 50mph and had an exceptionally long fetch that extended from new zealand to the sub tropics...much further north than the usual south swell producers. current models are predicting a long-lived swell episode that will last through the later part of next week.
current buoy readings from the lanai buoy are showing a building trend with respct to swell for most of the day. because the system crossed new zealand there will be two phases with this swell. the first is currently arriving and will peak on sunday night producing surf near the high surf advisary level of eight feet on the face. the next phase will arrive on tuesday and will likely be larger.
for sunday look for surf in the 2-4ft range solid at most spots along south shores. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 10:34 PM
June 18, 2007
TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY...small waves island wide with a minor bump along southern shores from the south-southeast. eastern shores will fluctuate with response to the tradewind flow over the islands.
jute on kauai for the week. will return on the 23rd.
Posted by megaprober at 12:02 PM
June 12, 2007
WEDNESDAY...small southerly pulse to continue for wednesday and then to be replaced by a larger south swell on thursday.
recent buoy observations are right on the money with swell heights predicted locally by wavewatch 3. the lanai buoy is showing 15sec swell periods with 2.7ft wavehights translating into 2-3ft surf along exposed southern shores.
this episode is the prerunner of a larger episode due on thursday as a result of a powerful winter storm that travelled eastward over new zealand about a week ago. the system had two sources of swell generation that travelled more or less the same path en route to hawaii. models were hinting toward a two phase episode and time will tell if a new long period swell begins to register later tomorrow.
look for 2-3ft surf out of the south along southern shores with the usual trades.
Posted by megaprober at 11:00 PM
TUESDAY...similar surf conditions to monday although a new swell may start to move into the islands from the south.
small southerly swell should be around for the dawn patrolers with surf near the chest high range at select spots. the lani buoy is currently registering south swell with 14sec periods and wave heights near 3.0ft. this swell is most likely the forerunner of a fairly long lived episode that will fluctuate between moderate and occasionally high surf heights over the next few days.
the storm associated with the swell was a massive storm that started in the tasman sea and moved east across new zealand and then finally into the open water east of new zealand. the timing of the storm's maximum strength appeared to be just before landfall over new zealand although it did possess significant strength once east of the island.
best guess is the initail phase of the swell to begin to arrive late tuesday and then fill in over wednesday. the swell may have a more westerly hint to it in its initial arrival and then swing slightly more east.
for tuesday look for 2-3ft surf with a possible bump in the late afternoon although the massive high tide may fatten the conditions. winds will be side shore to offshore at the usual spots.
Posted by megaprober at 01:40 AM
June 10, 2007
MONDAY...small surf for the start of the work week.
small southerly swell should be around for the dawn patrolers with surf near the chest high range at select spots. the lani buoy is currently registering south swell with 14sec periods and wave heights near 2.5ft. this swell is most likely from a variety of sources near new zealand as there has been extensive storm activity as the southern hemisphere is approaching the winter solstice.
eastern shores will continue with small windswell associated with the trades that are clocking in near 20mph during daytime hours. all in all a very typical summer surf day in hawaii.
Posted by megaprober at 10:15 PM
June 03, 2007
MONDAY...small surf for the start of the work week.
remanant surf will hang around for a few small waves at select spots on the north shore. any surf left around is a result of a system that tracked north of the islands and sent the promary swath of wave energy to targets east of the islands.
south shores are seeing a slight boost in surf as a result of broad system east of new zealand that prduced an unusually elongated fetch that pushed northward to within 3000nm of hawaii. this is about 1000nm closer than most south swell producers and as such will help keep a little more consistency to the surf. the only real limiting factor is that the main swath of energy was aimed slighly east of hawaii thus we are receiving set waves that have been spread outward resulting in a slight loss of energy. the lanai buoy is registering this swell nicely with a energy concentrated near 205deg with 14-17sec wave periods.
for monday look for 2-3ft surf along southern shores and surf near waist high on northern shores. winds should be light in the morning.
Posted by megaprober at 10:16 PM