July 25, 2007
THURSDAY...small surf for the most part with a small bump along the south shore.
surf will remain small once again, however there is some relief in sight as a series of small south swells will fill in over the next few days.
surf heights being registered at the lanai buoy are showing a slight increase in wave periods which is indicative of a new or reinforcing episode. the system associated with the swell was an area of low pressure east of new zealand that approached moderate intensity, thus producing wind speeds of near 40-50mph, but over a limited duration or fetch area.
surf produced from this episode will provide surf in the 2-3ft range at the best spots with perhaps the odd four footer.
trades have continued to blow relentlessly now for weeks and have produced the usual summer windswell in the 2-3ft range and there is not reason to see this not continue tomorrow.
just to keep things interesting the residual north-northeast swell that was generated upstream of the islands may keep some energy along the north shore.
Posted by megaprober at 11:36 PM
July 21, 2007
SUNDAY...surf along the north shore to continue. surf along eastern shores to start a slight decline.
west-northwesterly swell is registering on both the waimea and lanai buoys out of roughly 270 deg. with this increase in energy, there may be a bump in the swell overnight with waves moving into the solid three foot range by morning for northern shores.
east shores are currently near the threshold of the high surf advisary level of eight feet on the face. this being the result in increased trades due to the passage of tropical depression cosme which has now paseed west of the islands. windswell should start a slight decline by morning.
look for 2-4ft surf along both east and north shores with dclining trades.
Posted by megaprober at 06:05 PM
July 19, 2007
FRIDAY...surf is starting to arrive out of the west and north along the north shore.
a long lived west-northwest swell will start to arrive locally that was generated from typhoon Man-yi over the past weekend. the typhoon re-curved off of japan and generated a swell aimed in the direction of hawaii about three days ago. although not large, the swell will produce surf along the northern shores of kauai and oahu in the 2-3ft range. oahu may be subjected to the shadow effect of kauai due to the 300deg direction of the swell, so slightly smaller surf may occure there. the waimea buoy is currently showing a "ghost" signature of the swell meaning that low energy low frequency swell is showing up on the wave spectrum plot, but just barely. the direction of the swath registering there is between 240-320deg indicating that the swell originated from earlier phases of the typhoon and a good bet is that the swell will start to favor a more westerly pinpoint as the episode wears on.
southern shores will see two foot surf that was produced over a week ago from a system that moved west to east across the south pacific about five days ago. becuase the swell was more aimed toward the americas hawaii is just seeing the western fringe.
the waimea buoy is registering northerly swell associated with upstream trades that produced surf in the 2-4ft range at select spots. as of 9pm the swell heights at the waimea buoy are on the rise indicating that there may be solid surf for friday.
winds should start to increase as cosme approaches on friday.
Posted by megaprober at 09:49 PM
July 16, 2007
hurricane Cosme
TUESDAY...a small south swell will affect southern shores and a small northeast windswell swell will bring northern shores out of the flat to a foot range.
storm activity off eastern new zealand last week produced surf that is arriving locally. the swell has been registering on the kewalo wave platform as well as the lanai buoy. wave periods of 13-15sec are the norm at both locations and surf should maintain heights of near head high for the next few days. although surf was aimed a bit east waves tend to disperse radially, thus giving hawaii the western fringe of the swell.
on northern shores there is a small swell registering on the waimea buoy in the 7-9sec energy bands. the swell was the result of trade winds upstream, north of the islands over the last few days. this is typical of the summertime as the large high pressure anchored in the central east pacific can orientate swell with just enough angle to wrap around kahuku point. these swells tend to be sporadic and can disappear in a day or so.
looking ahead, there is a tropical storm or currenty hurricane Cosme that may come close to the island chain. so far most models are in agreement with the storm passing just south of the island chain, which would mean waves for eastern and southern shores. also on the menu is a possible west-northwest swell from typhoon Man-yi, that curved east off of japan.
Posted by megaprober at 09:28 PM
July 12, 2007
FRIDAY...small surf island wide.
all in all a poor surf day for all shores. there is a possibility of a small bump out of the northwest from a small system earlier in the week. with winds less than 40mph it is a good bet that this episode will be small and infequent and defintely no bigger than chest high at the most rightous reefs.
southern shores will be small with background swell producing surf near the waist high range at best.
easterly shores will be waist high and poor with choppy conditions.
trades will be the usual for thsi time of the year.
Posted by megaprober at 07:54 PM
July 09, 2007
summer blah..blah...blah
TUESDAY...small waves island wide and getting smaller.
typical summertime conditions will prevail on oahu as there sre no significant swell rolling in from downunder nor are is there anything brewing in from the north.
windward shores may top the list as winds upstream are slightly stronger and will remain so for the next few days. tough call to tell as the kailua buoy is out of of order for the time being.
southern shores will be 1-3ft and looking very much like summer with a few odd sets at select spots.
winds are looking to begin a declining episode before building later in the week
Posted by megaprober at 09:43 PM
July 07, 2007
7/08/07
SATURDAY...southerly swell to continue in the head high range.
recent buoy observations from the lanai buoy are suggesting a small bump in the swell. surf heights recorded there over the last few hours reported heights of over three feet regarding open ocean swell which is up from earlier today with heights of two and a half feet. wave periods also appear to have lengthened slightly.
the call for saturday is for surf to remain near head high with major influences from the tides. basically local knowledge will help. winds will be around so check the usual suspects.
trades will continue to howl.
Posted by megaprober at 12:20 AM
July 05, 2007
FRIDAY...surf on the downward trend for the next few days.
the large southerly swell that graced southern shores is definitely on the way out as there was an unexpected dop by tuesday. the swell duped all of us as there was larger than expected surf on monday evening, however by tuesday surf had dropped significantly for unexplained reasons.
recent buoy observations suggest that surf will stay near three feet, but be slowly on the way out. although the system associated with the swell lasted for nearly five day, the last few days had much lower winds speeds over smaller ocean surface areas. this will result in residual surf in the 2-3ft range at most exposed reefs for the next two to three days.
trades will continue to howl.
Posted by megaprober at 09:10 PM
July 02, 2007
july 4th swell
TUESDAY...surf to continue as the current southerly swell enters a new phase...possibly larger than this weekend
a powerful winter storm formed in the tasman sea about seven days ago that crossed new zealand and regained strength. the storm packed winds of near 50mph and had an exceptionally long fetch that extended from new zealand to the sub tropics...much further north than the usual south swell producers. current models are predicting a long-lived swell episode that will last through the later part of next week.
once the system moved east of new zealand a new longer fetch was set up that was more favorable for hawaii. odds are that with the long fetch, duration of the swell over agitated waters and strength of the storm that surf locally will be larger than estmated and may possibly reach warning level condition by tuesday. without the equatorial bouy there is little information available prior to swell arrival.
current buoy readings from the lanai buoy are showing a are indicating that the new swell has arrived and is on the way up. readings at the lanai buoy as of 5pm were 3.35ft with a significant swell period of 15secs. spectral plots on the graph are showing that the swell periods currently arriving are between 15-17sec which are indicative of large scale swell generated by massive storms. a hunch is that by tuesday this swell will have filled in and may be larger than expected.
the call is for solid 4-6ft surf with an odd, dare i say, eight footer at the very select reefs. this may be the largest swell of the season thus far and there may be a few surprises. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:19 PM
July 01, 2007
MONDAY...surf to continue as the current southerly swell begins a new phase...possibly larger than this weekend
a powerful winter storm formed in the tasman sea about five days ago that crossed new zealand and regained strength. the storm packed winds of near 50mph and had an exceptionally long fetch that extended from new zealand to the sub tropics...much further north than the usual south swell producers. current models are predicting a long-lived swell episode that will last through the later part of next week.
once the system moved east of new zealand a new longer fetch was set up that was more favorable for hawaii. odds are that with the long fetch, duration of the swell over agitated waters and strength of the storm that surf locally will be larger than estmated and may possible reach warning level condition by tuesday. without the equatorial bouy there is little information available prior to swell arrival.
current buoy readings from the lanai buoy are showing a continuing trend of swell that will pass easily into monday producing solid swell in the 2-4ft range at select reefs. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at 07:23 PM