July 02, 2007
july 4th swell
TUESDAY...surf to continue as the current southerly swell enters a new phase...possibly larger than this weekend
a powerful winter storm formed in the tasman sea about seven days ago that crossed new zealand and regained strength. the storm packed winds of near 50mph and had an exceptionally long fetch that extended from new zealand to the sub tropics...much further north than the usual south swell producers. current models are predicting a long-lived swell episode that will last through the later part of next week.
once the system moved east of new zealand a new longer fetch was set up that was more favorable for hawaii. odds are that with the long fetch, duration of the swell over agitated waters and strength of the storm that surf locally will be larger than estmated and may possibly reach warning level condition by tuesday. without the equatorial bouy there is little information available prior to swell arrival.
current buoy readings from the lanai buoy are showing a are indicating that the new swell has arrived and is on the way up. readings at the lanai buoy as of 5pm were 3.35ft with a significant swell period of 15secs. spectral plots on the graph are showing that the swell periods currently arriving are between 15-17sec which are indicative of large scale swell generated by massive storms. a hunch is that by tuesday this swell will have filled in and may be larger than expected.
the call is for solid 4-6ft surf with an odd, dare i say, eight footer at the very select reefs. this may be the largest swell of the season thus far and there may be a few surprises. winds will be trades.
Posted by megaprober at July 2, 2007 07:19 PM